Northern St. Johns County (Jacksonville, University: 2013, apartment, renting)

[hornsch]

I agree with Giants6. Prices in the past 4 years (in desirable areas) have increased at a substantial pace. We bought a new construction in Neptune Beach in 2012 just east of third street for $195/sqft. Now new construction in the same area is going for $300/sqft. Non-new construction- including some very old homes- are going for over $250/sqft.


Since there are hardly any vacant lots in the beaches area- east of third especially- people are buying old homes and tearing them down. The small empty lots that are sold go for high prices- one on my street (the last one available) sold in 2013- 1/8 of an acre- for $300,000. Supply is very limited unlike other areas.


The schools I guess are an issue- we send our daughter to a small private school.

[sunshinebound95]

Haha. I agree with you on the lagoon! That's why I don't want to live there. If it comes to it I'd rather look at an empty waterpark than a gross lagoon. The liner on the lagoon needs replaced every 10-20 years plus the company takes care of it remotely. I'm sure the cost are outrageous. However, I think it would be really cool to go eat dinner near it, so long as it isn't my problem. I Bet if cost are comparable or even a little bit more it will outsell nocatee in a hurry. It's basically next door and I bet they will have crazy marketing videos too.

You are right about it being the only place for typical middle / upper middle class families to move in ten a rea. But I wonder how many people stretch themselves to live in these homes? I'm not about stretching. I was surprised to see all the undecorated homes for sale or half empty on mls. People wanting a better life for there kids and killing themselves for a house that eats their soul ? Or,perhaps in the north folks are more into interior design? It's to bad duval and other local schools don't do more to improve. I know some will say well that's just advantaged kids test scores, but I've also seen plenty of parents who have moved from duval to St. John's write and say there is a huge difference. In our city now there is an urban renaissance as well, mostly people in there twenty and thirties without kids. As soon as someone pops out a kid they're out here in the burbs buying a house. Carrying a stroller and car seat up to a third floor loft isn't fun afterall. That's originally why the burbs where created, for families mainly to escape the city in little ticky-tacky houses.

I agree on Jacksonville not being relevant. When we first discussed moving it wasn't even on the list. Even though we have family down there, I've never been like yay Jacksonville, more like yay south from all of my southern family and friends. It's just ends up after looking at jobs for my husband and so forth Jacksonville will be great.

A recession will come. They always do, what goes up must come down. Now timing it, that's what makes billionaires like warren buffet billionaires right?

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by sunshinebound95

...I could be wrong though, but if I was going to bet, I bet on a price correction in the next few years...

Florida is very prone to real estate boom and bust cycles. We've been through 3 huge ones since we moved here in the 70's. The last being the bust that started in 2007. Quite a few minor ones as well. It's something you get used to. And it's impossible to predict when the busts will happen.

I think what you have to ask yourself if your time frame is 15-20 years is what a rapidly growing area will look like perhaps a decade from now (the County Commission approved plans for something like 50,000 new houses in the 90's and early 2000's - a large % of which haven't been built yet). My guess for western SJC is something that looks like western Dade or Broward counties. Not an especially pretty sight IMO. And the only thing that will slow it down is the occasional real estate bust that comes along from time to time.

FWIW - I have always moved to areas that were relatively developed when I moved there. So I had a pretty good idea of what I'd be dealing with down the road. There have been some changes in PVB over the course of the last 20 years - but nothing like I've seen in areas like the 210 corridor (which - except for Cimarrone - was basically empty in 1995). Robyn

[Giants6]

Originally Posted by sunshinebound95

You are right about it being the only place for typical middle / upper middle class families to move in ten a rea. But I wonder how many people stretch themselves to live in these homes? I'm not about stretching. I was surprised to see all the undecorated homes for sale or half empty on mls. People wanting a better life for there kids and killing themselves for a house that eats their soul ? Or,perhaps in the north folks are more into interior design? It's to bad duval and other local schools don't do more to improve. I know some will say well that's just advantaged kids test scores, but I've also seen plenty of parents who have moved from duval to St. John's write and say there is a huge difference.

I'm only 1 person and in just the few years I've lived here a handful of co-workers have already shared with me their "morally questionable" methods of getting their kids into SJC schools while still living in Duval county. One guy who lives down the road from where we work in the heart of Duval county accidentally told me his daughter went to Creekside High School (in SJC). I asked how and eventually he came clean saying he used his sister's address, after first telling me he had rental property in SJC. So far I have yet to find one single person who lives in SJC but is sneaking their kid into a Duval public school. Hasn't happened, lol.


As far as people stretching, I think its still too early in the boom to tell yet. My rough and dirty estimate is that things really picked up in the housing market here during the summer of 2013. There are probably families running up tons of debt to live a certain lifestyle but I would venture to say it will be a couple more years before the tides goes out and we can see who is skinny dipping.

[sunshinebound95]

@giants6
You are right, but those will be the first people to drop when the recession starts (those stretching). Before I became disabled I was a banker, before and through the recession. There were so many people living on borrowed time financially. I think that's why my husband and I are so conservative, I've seen what it can do to not be responsible. The sad thing is, most people are never taught anything about it, so they think as long as they can pay the bills coming in with their paycheck they are fine. And they rob Peter to pay Paul and when one bank won't lend to them they'll just yell and go to another, it's very sad. I lucked out and bought my house during the last recession, though things were just beginning to shake up and we didn't know how much worse it was going to get. But as banks started crashing and burning I remember telling my husband we should take all our money and hide it under our mattress. (And I was a banker). I am thinking that the last recession was pretty awful and hopefully the next few won't be as bad. Though statiscally speaking, past events do not change future outcomes. I have not seen enough changes in banks to believe it can't happen again.

The school thing from duval makes me laugh, because growing up in California everyone did that. One street made all the difference in education so people were registered to their friends, relatives ext houses. I imagine it's somewhat harder now with computers and technology but where there is a will there is a way right.

@robyn

I have taken the l in Chicago and the Bart once or twice in the Bay Area. Around here I take a cab if I need it though I can't stand most cabbies. I haven't tried uber yet, it seems a little strange to me, but uber black, I saw a commercial for that. It sounds like car service anywhere like what I used in nyc so I'd be open to that. Mostly I rely on my husband weekends and evenings and he will take a break during the day to take me to the doctors. There is nothing around me here either besides my lovely neighbors who have tea with me.

My husbands aunt lived in broward county in the 80s and just sold a few years ago. Her neighborhood went through much change, and she was itching to get out when they did. However her house still sold quickly. I to imagine it was much like sjc in the day. So I know what you are saying. I think all neighborhoods change over 20-30 years. My neighborhood now, 20 years ago was an old farm town. Now it's a hot spot and locals can't believe what they sell their old houses for. People come in and remodel them overnight. In 20 years there will be a new hot spot, but so long as northern St. John's doesn't turn into a ghetto we'll be ok. If it starts getting iffy, I'd move in a heartbeat to the better part of town.

Another huge drawl for use is the college cost in Florida. We have four kids to put through college and compared to cost here in the ne, Florida is an amazing deal. We can easily pay cash in Florida. We were looking at sc, but when we looked at the colleges, cost, and rankings, Florida came out way on top. Plus the kids would be within a couple hours drive.

[hornsch]

Uber is the best. About 1/3 cost of cab and WAY better service IMO.

[sunshinebound95]

@hornsch . Users been good? No creepers? Better than cabbies? I've felt my life endangered by cabbies on numerous occasions.

[Florida2014]

I haven't used Uber here in Jax, but have in other cities and I agree....far better and less creepy than those cabbies. And yes, a fraction of the cost.

[sunshinebound95]

Thanks @florida that is good to know. I need to try uber out.

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by sunshinebound95

...but so long as northern St. John's doesn't turn into a ghetto we'll be ok. If it starts getting iffy, I'd move in a heartbeat to the better part of town...

Ghetto as in - OMG - there are people of color moving here . Or ghetto as in - this whole place is just a bunch of white middle class people who have moved from the NE ?

My elderly father was a developer in the NE - Long Island and New Jersey. And he made a tidy living building for "white flight" people up north. People from NYC - Philadelphia too. I don't have a clue what is going on anywhere in NE suburbs these days. Is that why some of you are leaving - white flight? If not - why are you leaving?

I see most of Florida- including this area - becoming increasingly Hispanic - not black - in the future. Brush up on your Spanish .

Florida's Puerto Rican population rivaling New York's | Pew Research Center

Another huge drawl for use is the college cost in Florida. We have four kids to put through college and compared to cost here in the ne, Florida is an amazing Not to mention thdeal. We can easily pay cash in Florida. We were looking at sc, but when we looked at the colleges, cost, and rankings, Florida came out way on top. Plus the kids would be within a couple hours drive.

Florida public colleges/universities have gone from party school jokes to extremely competitive places since we moved here. Don't expect your kids to get to get into the better ones unless they're very good or excellent students. Not to mention that the schools will be increasingly expensive as they receive less public funding. Robyn