Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Florida > Jacksonville
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 07-05-2008, 02:51 PM
 
2,414 posts, read 4,210,956 times
Reputation: 3791

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by riveree View Post
Well that's certainly the truth!

I wonder if new home builders will start to "come down to earth" with home styling as well? Any idea if they'll be building smaller homes, maybe less glitzy?

Let's put it like this....doorbells and sink sprayers have now become "options" among some of the builders I work for. I think that sums it up well!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 07-05-2008, 04:08 PM
 
10,599 posts, read 17,786,208 times
Reputation: 17349
Quote:
Originally Posted by pvguy View Post
the big flaw with your theory is that inflation is depreciating your cash just as fast, over time real estate has always been a wise investment. You just need to think in a very long term

You just need to think in a very long term

Well thanks for the advise but it's not applicable to me. The big flaw in your assumption is that you don't know me or my resources or my goals or life situation. I've just retired at 55 and in a good position. I'm single with no living relatives except my son who is also a free bird type and may chose to move elsewhere too.

Why would you assume that I am in a "VERY LONG TERM" place without knowing me?

I can move to any state or country I want at a moments notice without having a piece of property be a ball and chain.

Perhaps your crystal ball is working well, but I don't believe anybody can say what is going to happen VERY LONG TERM and I'm not in the mood to be locked into a property in a neighborhood that potentially can turn into a foreclosure site until I evaluate the situation better.

I understand your point of view. Hurry up and buy your DREAM HOME, we have MULTIPLE OFFERS, now is a GOOD TIME TO BUY, we see a decrease in INVENTORY...whoever buys NOW will look very smart LATER....LOL yeah...ok.

I'm perfectly happy with 2.25 (in fact jumbos are paying 3.5 in some places.....while I decide what I'm doing. I'm not freaking out about sitting on some money until next year, and at that time I will be making a FRUGAL purchase given that I might get stuck with it for a VERY LONG TIME. God forbid
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-05-2008, 04:50 PM
 
Location: Punta Gorda and Maryland
6,103 posts, read 15,016,874 times
Reputation: 1256
Quote:
Originally Posted by KerryB View Post
I'm not doubting your expertise, but I think there are bigger things at play here than just supply.

The economy & the dollar are tanking right now, there's a looming energy crisis with gas prices going up up up, there's an expensive war going on with no end in sight currently with Iran's turn probably being next & so on. People are scared to buy anything even semi-expensive right now, whether it be cars (some companies are teetering on the brink of extinction) & let alone big expensive homes in the suburbs (which is most of Jax). Much of the middle class are struggling just to keep food on their table & gas in their tanks so they can go to work.

So, not to be a downer, but I personally don't see these problems just up & going away by years end because all this stuff is connected. I see it getting worse actually. And for a town like Jax, which is sooo spread out to where everything is far away from everything, I don't see that as a big draw in this kind of situation. I sure know its killing my pocketbook, even in pretty efficient cars.

I think this whole thing is gonna have people downsizing everything in their lives. Their cars, the cities they live in, their homes & just the way they go about doing things in general.
KerryB, I think you are right, I am a builder in MD, and I can say the same things. Prices are going up, and up. "All this stuff is connected", it is very dynamic. The Shingle manufacturer's are closing down plants to keep prices high and keep demand up, and cut overhead; drywall manufacturers are doing the same thing. Commodities like Copper, fuel, PVC, steel and many other things are rising in cost (inflationary). The problem is that you have these thing increasing, and at the same time you have significant job loss, no one is hiring, no raises, cut-backs are happening everywhere, and you have interest rates climbing now. Who is going to buy houses in this market? When the local market does not pay enough to allow the residential market to be self sustaining. From what I've read many people that live in Florida and raise families there are struggling. Everyone is going to be very careful with their money for some time to come. Wages in general are not that great. It is tough to sell, and there is a lot of inventory. Short sales are increasing not decreasing, banks are going more often to Foreclosures, and when those houses are sold, they are sold at huge loses that only lower the area property values further. Then that lowers the appraisal amount on other properties in the area too. When the appraisals come in low, banks will only lend for an amount higher than the appraised vaule. The equity in the homes of may people who'd like to move has all but evaporated. Not only do buyers have to have great credit, they also have to have much larger deposits. All these things, with many more short sales and foreclosures on the horizon don't add up to a quick housing market turn around anytime soon. In fact it is much more likely to get worse. Don't forget the stock market went down almost 1500 points in the last month and a half. A lot of people lost a lot of money. In fairness there are pockets in Florida that seem to be doing well.

As for builders, lenders will soon stop lending on Spec homes too, meaning without a firm buyer under contract they won't lend only to have more inventory to compete with when they have a lot of inventory they have to move. Almost all banks are at their lending limits and are re-trenching.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-05-2008, 05:37 PM
 
9 posts, read 8,586 times
Reputation: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by runswithscissors View Post
You just need to think in a very long term

Well thanks for the advise but it's not applicable to me. The big flaw in your assumption is that you don't know me or my resources or my goals or life situation. I've just retired at 55 and in a good position. I'm single with no living relatives except my son who is also a free bird type and may chose to move elsewhere too.

Why would you assume that I am in a "VERY LONG TERM" place without knowing me?

I can move to any state or country I want at a moments notice without having a piece of property be a ball and chain.

Perhaps your crystal ball is working well, but I don't believe anybody can say what is going to happen VERY LONG TERM and I'm not in the mood to be locked into a property in a neighborhood that potentially can turn into a foreclosure site until I evaluate the situation better.

I understand your point of view. Hurry up and buy your DREAM HOME, we have MULTIPLE OFFERS, now is a GOOD TIME TO BUY, we see a decrease in INVENTORY...whoever buys NOW will look very smart LATER....LOL yeah...ok.

I'm perfectly happy with 2.25 (in fact jumbos are paying 3.5 in some places.....while I decide what I'm doing. I'm not freaking out about sitting on some money until next year, and at that time I will be making a FRUGAL purchase given that I might get stuck with it for a VERY LONG TIME. God forbid
I don't think you grasped what I said. You stated you didn't want to lose money by buying a house now and I am saying is that by keeping cash in a low returning asset like cash and even earning 3.5% your cash is being wiped out by inflation. Either way you are a loser, but history has shown that owning a home will show better returns over the long term than sitting on cash. earning 3.5% in cash with an inflation rate of 5% is a loser from the get go, while owning a home might show negative returns for a few years in the long term you more than likely will have profits that at worst will beat inflation.
I don't need to be privy to your circumstances to spot a better deal when I see it.
It's your money, do with it as you like
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-05-2008, 05:47 PM
 
1,255 posts, read 3,470,234 times
Reputation: 773
Quote:
Originally Posted by runswithscissors View Post
I was at a development the other day and it's a well known builder. The grass is a mess and it appears the residents are doing it themselves. And its crappy seeded grass not that Florida turf you'd expect to see. Some cut some long, some weeds high, a mess.

Supposed to have an HOA. I didn't even bother to stop and ask, the place isn't built out yet and already looks bad imo.
I can sorta relate to this as we've let our own lawn go to sh*t recently. The problem is this. The typical suburban lawn here requires a lot of maintenance & expense. That expense, to us, is "luxury" expense. Meaning, you use what disposable income you have to pretty up your place. Well, disposable income is getting fewer & further between these days. So, the lawn gets sacrificed. Thats just the way it has to be for now.

So, I dont think its that people just dont care. We obviously care, but like I said, there are bigger fish to fry right now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-05-2008, 09:49 PM
 
Location: Jax
8,200 posts, read 35,333,293 times
Reputation: 3441
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShakenStirred View Post
Let's put it like this....doorbells and sink sprayers have now become "options" among some of the builders I work for. I think that sums it up well!
So the new homebuilders in Jax/Jax area will be raising prices next year, but it sounds like they're going back to upgrades a la carte instead of built-in to the price already...I think this is a move in the right direction.

Before the boom really got rolling, that's how the homebuilders did it, and I think it made sense. If you wanted tile, you paid for the upgrade. If you'd rather install the tile at some later time and not pay for it now, you had that choice. But when the boom was rolling, the builders took away that choice and you paid for all the upgrades because they were now "standard", whether you wanted them or not.

So even though the builders plan to raise the price of their homes, maybe they're only raising the base price? This might actually bring the prices of the homes down (assuming one went with no upgrades).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-05-2008, 11:44 PM
 
109 posts, read 305,242 times
Reputation: 45
For a meaningful recovery in housing prices to occur, several events must transpire:
1) Foreclosures must diminish and be cleared from the market
2) Credit crunch must end

None are likely to occur soon.

Buying real estate for investment can be done, but you better have at least a 5 year holding period or you will be caught underwater, if you need to sell:
E.g. Portifino PV Condos 2006: 625K Now 450K
E.g. Escapade Town Center Condos 2006: 210K Now 150K
E.g. Wolfcreek Condos 2005: 200K+ Now 129K (foreclosure listing)
Equity loss between 70K-200K over 2 year period. These are just a few quick examples, there are countless others. Any don't even get me started on the massive discounting in Marsh Landing and PV with price reductions of 200-300K!

To see full aggregate trends, look here:
HousingTracker.net: Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Jacksonville, Florida
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-06-2008, 12:17 AM
 
Location: JAX
353 posts, read 1,141,968 times
Reputation: 170
Closing on a new construction Aug 19. Can't wait!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-06-2008, 12:24 AM
 
Location: JAX
353 posts, read 1,141,968 times
Reputation: 170
Just food for thought..... The home I'm building now, I considered almost 2 years ago when the community was just starting..... decided it wasn't the right time for us. The base price was $100,000 MORE than what I paid to build it right now. The floor plan also won a Parade of Homes award for a price point almost $200,000 higher than what I paid......

All in all I think it ended up being a good deal for me.

On a side note.....keep buying SUV's people... and take long road trips..... Sooner or later I'm gonna have a kid to put through college.... (says the shameless oil and gas fella... )

RR
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-06-2008, 05:30 PM
 
2,414 posts, read 4,210,956 times
Reputation: 3791
Default If you don't mind me asking...

Quote:
Originally Posted by R1v3rRat View Post
Just food for thought..... The home I'm building now, I considered almost 2 years ago when the community was just starting..... decided it wasn't the right time for us. The base price was $100,000 MORE than what I paid to build it right now. The floor plan also won a Parade of Homes award for a price point almost $200,000 higher than what I paid......

All in all I think it ended up being a good deal for me.

On a side note.....keep buying SUV's people... and take long road trips..... Sooner or later I'm gonna have a kid to put through college.... (says the shameless oil and gas fella... )

RR
Who is building your house, if you don't mind me asking??? And when you get a few moments, look into HTE and PGH Mr. oil and gas fella!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Settings
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2020 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Florida > Jacksonville

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top