lets speculate about the hypothetical growth of miami county (Overland: how much, house)

[probe28]

hello, i have read the city data forums for awhile now and am an average guy in overland park. Miami county is in the kc metro area so i felt this would be the best forum to post this in. I am an amateur population statistician so just going to bring up a few basic points:

why miami county could grow:

Johnson county's population continues to expand, its infrastructure countinues to grow, and its population continues to diversify. What was a farming community a century ago is now home to over half a million people and development continues to move south. Miami county is the next logical place for an exurb and the last county that is close enough to be part of a kansas city metroplex.

miami county population stats
(wikipedia)
year population growth rate
1990 23,466 8.5%
2000 28,351 20.8%
2010 32,787 15.6%

downsides

basically theres "nothing" there right now and its a very rural place. the suburbs are still about 10 miles away from the county line basically.


So lets debate if and how fast miami county will grow, and/or if it is a good place to invest in.

[kcmo]

According to MARC, it still won't hit 50k by the year 2040. So it's going to remain a very rural county for a very long time. It's just too far away.

http://miamicountyks.org/DocumentCenter/View/1735

KC area growth projections:

Kansas side all about JoCo still with Wyandotte and Leavenworth not projected to grow a lot, Jackson County slows as it's running out of usable land and Northern Cass County continues to grow at a decent clip. The Northland continues to rival JoCo especially on the KCI side going into the future. Not sure why Miami County is not on the map, but it would probably look like Levenworth County. I think the most growth in KC over the next 40 years will occur to the west towards Lawrence and the Northland because of so much land that's still close to the city.

[probe28]

Thats interesting. This post was brought on by me thinking about it for about 5 minutes while i drove about 15 miles from my place to hillsdale lake. Those MARC numbers are slightly more pessimistic than i would have guesstimated in my head. It does make sense that most of the growth would be in joco especially since if you hug the south line of the county around 199th the place still has a rural feel, but if joco were to have 800k people it almost seems surreal that the county next to it would have 40k to me. Maybe i need to re-conceptualize how big a county really is.

[GraniteStater]

I expect little to no growth in Miami county for the foreseeable future other than a continuation of scattered rural or semi-rural housing units added. The recent population trends since 2010 have been flat to negative even with the very high percentage of the population under age 18 there.. This suggests that people are moving closer to employment in JOCO and rejecting the long commutes and higher inherent costs.
Otherwise, you must have forgotten that all of that infrastructure that has been built in the past needs maintenance, re-purposing, and more new urbanist designs for already high density areas inside 435 in JOCO. The sprawl mid to late 20th century model will continue in JOCO, but I anticipate more growth westward and to the southwest. The southeast part of JOCO has substantially higher housing prices that limit the buyer pool a bit more there.

[probe28]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

I expect little to no growth in Miami county for the foreseeable future other than a continuation of scattered rural or semi-rural housing units added. The recent population trends since 2010 have been flat to negative even with the very high percentage of the population under age 18 there.. This suggests that people are moving closer to employment in JOCO and rejecting the long commutes and higher inherent costs.
Otherwise, you must have forgotten that all of that infrastructure that has been built in the past needs maintenance, re-purposing, and more new urbanist designs for already high density areas inside 435 in JOCO. The sprawl mid to late 20th century model will continue in JOCO, but I anticipate more growth westward and to the southwest. The southeast part of JOCO has substantially higher housing prices that limit the buyer pool a bit more there.

As for the bolded, I don't really understand the relationship between places needing maintenence, re-purposing, etc to population growth other than the obvious fact that maintenence and re-purposing provides jobs.I dont really see how that prevents suburban sprawl. If theres something im missing here(I'm sure I am) i'd love to know more about it.
I live in the southeast of johnson county. This area is growing for sure and new developments and stores are popping up all the time,we are only like about 5 miles from the miami county border so it isnt difficult to imagine a scenario where the giant ball of suburban sprawl that is covering joco 5 miles away would extend 5 more miles.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by probe28

As for the bolded, I don't really understand the relationship between places needing maintenence, re-purposing, etc to population growth other than the obvious fact that maintenence and re-purposing provides jobs.I dont really see how that prevents suburban sprawl. If theres something im missing here(I'm sure I am) i'd love to know more about it.
I live in the southeast of johnson county. This area is growing for sure and new developments and stores are popping up all the time,we are only like about 5 miles from the miami county border so it isnt difficult to imagine a scenario where the giant ball of suburban sprawl that is covering joco 5 miles away would extend 5 more miles.

That would involve even more annexation and Overland Park cannot annex as it runs into Stillwell and Spring Hill on its southern boundaries. Going across a county line and continuing that is not going to happen. Miami county has its own county seat (Paola) and other villages that coordinate and plan development.

"I dont really see how that prevents suburban sprawl. If theres something im missing here(I'm sure I am) i'd love to know more about it."
Well, you wouldn't see that because JOCO does not understand what mixed use development and new urbanism development is. That basically means building and incorporating residential, commercial, parking, and other amenities in one space and in a pedestrian friendly environment. Re-purposing and actually adding to the diversity of the zoning IN JOCO would definitely slow the growth of sprawl developments and save taxpayers money by reducing the costs of adding new infrastructure, subsidized at taxpayer expense.

[kcmo]

Miami County doesn't want to grow. They have passed laws to keep development rural there.

Plus Miami County is just plain ugly. It's kind of the stereotypical image of Kansas. Flat, barren and far from everything.

Growth on the Kansas side of KC will continue to be nearly 100% in one county and it will stop at the county line, just like it's been for the last 20 years.

And there are lots of examples of very rural counties right next to a very populated county.

[probe28]

granite stater and kcmo,

i post on the internet to be educated. if you guys could point me to some resources you would speculate would be helpful for me that would be great. I'm personally done with this thread since I do not know enough to debate with you guys.

[kcmo]

MARC (Mid America Regional Council) is is a good place to start. Also the US Census Bureau website , but there are probably lots of studies and stuff out there as well. I have been following KC demographics my entire life and and generally very interested in demographics and urban planning.

But if you want to get a feel for why growth in JoCo will slow to the south, just google "overland park annexation" or "johnson county 21st century parkway". You will find lots of info on why sprawl eventually runs into major opposition, sometimes enough to make it change directions.

There is no infrastructure out there. US-69 is not going to get it done. And Miami County (and much of far south Johnson County) won't allow subdivision development unless it's on semi rural lots.

[luzianne]

You guys must not have noticed how much growth there has been already around Hillsdale Lake and Paola. People want land to build a house on. Not just a lot, but 5 or 10 acres. That's pretty much not available in Johnson County, and if you do happen to find something, the price is ridiculous. People are indeed moving south to Miami County - to Bucyrus, Hillsdale Lake, Louisburg, Paola. It's growing like crazy down there.