Kansas Job Losses (move, plumbers, cities)

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Is this projection? I am stating the economic realities, and Kansas has one of the weakest economies in the US right now. Brownback will never admit fault, regressive tax policies have consequences- one of those being strong out-migration of population from many areas of the state. States run by one political party tend to be impacted more by this phenomenon.

Oh so now it's the meme that political parties run jobs out of state more than others?

Of course Brownback or any other polititician would not admit fault.

So, here goes.

Logically and scienttifically support your point that states run by one politiical party tend to be impacted more by strong out-migration after adjusting for covariances.

Frankly, I feel you have reached your decision based upon personal feelings rather than scienttific analysis but I will await your response.

P.S. I you leave covariance out of you "analysis" my response is going to be *ugly*.

[GraniteStater]

Broke Illinois has gained more jobs in the past year than Kansas. Kansas lost jobs in numeric terms. Explain that away.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Broke Illinois has gained more jobs in the past year than Kansas. Kansas lost jobs in numeric terms. Explain that away.

Short answer: Their main issue is debt and they haven't had to get really serious with it.....yet.

As I've mentioned before jobs gains\losses incorporate complicated dynamics and are in many ways somewhat meaningless when comparing between states. State A could be coming out of a really rough patch and is rebounding and thus adding more jobs that State B that might just be steadily cruising along at a much lower unemployment rate.

Perfect example I pointed out before was that KS was creating jobs at first under Brownback and he crowed about it. Turns out it's a temporary, somewhat poor metric to use as a bell-weather but that hasn't stopped his critics from using it too....once it started supporting their views.

I don't even know why you're grinding on me about this, both states have their issues and I thought we'd reached agreement that Brownbacks plans were ill-conceived and have failed.

I was answering some questions about Illinois' issues that were posed by another poster. VERY different set of issues between the two states and I did not try to make KS out to be doing better as compared to Illinois. Apples and Banana's.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

Short answer: Their main issue is debt and they haven't had to get really serious with it.....yet.

As I've mentioned before jobs gains\losses incorporate complicated dynamics and are in many ways somewhat meaningless when comparing between states. State A could be coming out of a really rough patch and is rebounding and thus adding more jobs that State B that might just be steadily cruising along at a much lower unemployment rate.

Perfect example I pointed out before was that KS was creating jobs at first under Brownback and he crowed about it. Turns out it's a temporary, somewhat poor metric to use as a bell-weather but that hasn't stopped his critics from using it too....once it started supporting their views.

I don't even know why you're grinding on me about this, both states have their issues and I thought we'd reached agreement that Brownbacks plans were ill-conceived and have failed.

I was answering some questions about Illinois' issues that were posed by another poster. VERY different set of issues between the two states and I did not try to make KS out to be doing better as compared to Illinois. Apples and Banana's.

Well, if the governor doesn't like the economic realities, just don't report the facts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...t-reporting-it

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Well, if the governor doesn't like the economic realities, just don't report the facts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...t-reporting-it

Yep. Politicians are lying scum.

I'm just discussing the proper methodology, not disagreeing with the conclusion.

All I'll say is that using any methodology Brownback once used is likely not the best choice...other than to mock him....but not as a serious metric.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by denverian

So... tax cuts didn't work out so well? But hey, at least the gays can't marry in Kansas. Oh, wait... that didn't work out so well for Brownback either.

New, disastrous Kansas job loss exposes pure folly of Gov. Sam Brownback

As Homer Simpson would say: Doh! It just get worse and worse.

Latest news is that Kansas has the WORST economic index for all 50 states, per this article in the L.A. Times. Excerpts: "Kansas ranked rock-bottom in the three-month change in these metrics from July through September (2016), with a decline of 1.18%" and "...Confronted by an unbroken string of reports that his fiscal policies are leading his state to economic ruin, he (Brownback) hasn’t given an inch..."


Further proof of deteriorating conditions is that in July 2016 S&P issued its second downgrade of Kansas' credit worthiness as reported here: Excerpt: "S&P Global Ratings dropped its rating for Kansas to AA-, from AA, three months after putting the state on a negative credit watch. S&P also dropped the state’s credit rating in August 2014. Forty-one states now have a higher rating from S&P, and only three — Illinois, New Jersey and Kentucky — have worse ratings."

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

As Homer Simpson would say: Doh! It just get worse and worse.

Latest news is that Kansas has the WORST economic index for all 50 states, per this article in the L.A. Times. Excerpts: "Kansas ranked rock-bottom in the three-month change in these metrics from July through September (2016), with a decline of 1.18%" and "...Confronted by an unbroken string of reports that his fiscal policies are leading his state to economic ruin, he (Brownback) hasn’t given an inch..."


Further proof of deteriorating conditions is that in July 2016 S&P issued its second downgrade of Kansas' credit worthiness as reported here: Excerpt: "S&P Global Ratings dropped its rating for Kansas to AA-, from AA, three months after putting the state on a negative credit watch. S&P also dropped the state’s credit rating in August 2014. Forty-one states now have a higher rating from S&P, and only three — Illinois, New Jersey and Kentucky — have worse ratings."

You should probably cite rush limbaugh too.

I don' t disagree that Brownback sucks and has failed.( I predicted this fyi) but the cherry picked metrics are partisan.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

As Homer Simpson would say: Doh! It just get worse and worse.

Latest news is that Kansas has the WORST economic index for all 50 states, per this article in the L.A. Times. Excerpts: "Kansas ranked rock-bottom in the three-month change in these metrics from July through September (2016), with a decline of 1.18%" and "...Confronted by an unbroken string of reports that his fiscal policies are leading his state to economic ruin, he (Brownback) hasn’t given an inch..."


Further proof of deteriorating conditions is that in July 2016 S&P issued its second downgrade of Kansas' credit worthiness as reported here: Excerpt: "S&P Global Ratings dropped its rating for Kansas to AA-, from AA, three months after putting the state on a negative credit watch. S&P also dropped the state’s credit rating in August 2014. Forty-one states now have a higher rating from S&P, and only three — Illinois, New Jersey and Kentucky — have worse ratings."

Sigh. Maybe read the thread next time?

Sadly, I've yet to find a fellow non-partisan to discuss the topic with here.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Broke Illinois has gained more jobs in the past year than Kansas. Kansas lost jobs in numeric terms. Explain that away.

You are highly partisan and either that or a lack of statistical education prevent you from making any proper analysis. You're welcome for the explanation.

The easiest way to lie and cheat with historical information is to truncate the data to the time period that supports your narrative.

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourcei...raph%20history

For example,

"Obama was terrible for the economy, his first 2 years in office he shrank the stock market by 50%!"

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourcei...raph%20history

True? Yes, but an accurate analysis? No.

Carry on el Rushbo.

[Mathguy]

Quick show of hands, I have my suspicions.

Public or private sector posters?

I'm private.

No offense but if I presented analysis truncating data like you do, I'd have been fired long ago.

You guys can't possibly be doing this bad of analysis unless it's for political crap.