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Old 11-10-2014, 11:42 AM
 
30 posts, read 69,103 times
Reputation: 15

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Bear View Post
So...Greenville has 70% more heads than the Tri Cities MSA? That is a LOT of bodies.....like 350,000...

The Mall in Bristol dies.....and the traffic/stores go to the Pinnacle. What has changed other than some "new" buildings?

Then there is that empty place along 81 where Hanes, I believe, has an outlet store. How many tens of thousands of square feet of empty retail space are in that building?

And soon, we get Cabelas? Another how many hundreds of thousands of square feet of "shopping" space?

Now, enter whatever is happening at the corner of 26 and 81. What does that do for the Pinnacle, the Mall, the Cabelas, and the Mall at JC which is already up for sale with two dying anchors (JC Penny and Sears)?

I am not a shopper, admittedly. I cant think of a worse way to spend my time. But many people are, and do find it "recreational" to wander around stores thinking about ways to run up their credit cards. But, at what point does saturation take hold? How many places can compete for those 500,000 folks, plus a few transients, who wander into the area and go "wow", a Bass Pro or a Cabelas--there is nothing like that near where we live?

If the current "health" of the area shopping centers is any indication, not enough. Now we are going to spread those people out over THREE additional shopping Malls, and things are going to get better? MORE people are going to spend MORE money? And everyone is going to thrive?

I am not seeing it, quite honestly.
The JC Mall actually does quite well in sales and gets heavy traffic, JCP is actually recovering although Sears is doomed. I expect Sears to be gone completely by 2017 at the latest however Sears is irrelevant as none of them seem to do well anymore so even if/when Sears closes down all the locations in the Tri-Cities I don't see it having any effect on the retail in the area.

Also little fact here the Bass Pro Shop in Bristol had the second highest gross opening in the companies history, the sales greatly exceeded what they expected and the place is always packed. I realize that will wear off in time as its still quite new and a new place for people to visit here but from what I'm seeing so far I think Bass Pro Shop will do very well in this area.

The Bristol Mall is pretty much dead but it was in bad shape before the Pinnacle although with Belk leaving and Chick Fila among others moving to the Pinnacle this has put the nail in the coffin for them. Indoor malls are a thing of the past which I think this area is starting to see as more of our local sales move to shopping centers away from malls. However JC is in a good position and has two nice anchor stores Belk and JCP that do well and it's in a great location so the JC Mall is quite safe. I'm a bit skeptical on the long term of the Fort Henry Mall which is quite outdated and limited in what it offers and it has issues keeping smaller tenants but with the movie theater, Belk, and JCP I think it will be safe at least for a few more years.
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Old 11-10-2014, 11:57 AM
 
56 posts, read 118,417 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emigrations View Post
But these two shops pretty well serve the same market. Most of the area residents also don't have a lot of disposable income, so I can't see them just going out on a spending binge
I don't think you understood my post. I'm saying that outside of the greater tri city area i don't know why this development would draw from the south. If you factor in a Cabelos then it might. Bass Pro is a great anchor store but there's not much new around it.
If i lived in Greeneville and my wife and i need to go shopping so I'm ready for hunting season and so she can buy clothes, we'd head to Bass Pro in Kodak and then head on to knoxville or the sevierville outlets. If Cabelas moves in up the road from Bass Pro then my thinking might be different.
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Old 11-10-2014, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Johnson City, TN
667 posts, read 822,197 times
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While the Tri-Cities CSA is over 500,000 the Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson CSA is nearly 1.5 million so comparing apples to apples that area is much larger.

The Tri-Cities is composed of the Kingsport-Bristol MSA at 305,000 and the Johnson City MSA at 195,000. More and more it appears these two are beginning to function more independent of one another at the retail level. I don't see the Pinnacle impacting Johnson City's retail scene at all but Kingsport could be another story. I think you will see Kingsport's sales tax revenue decline once this project is fully complete due to the duplication of stores. The funny thing is Kingsport is the city that lobbied for the border regions law to be passed allowing cities to keep a portion of the state's share of sales tax revenue to be used as a development incentive. They got caught with their pants down when the developer of the property at 81 and 26 jumped ship and Bristol took advantage.

One thing in the article linked in the original post caught my attention. "In time, 15 or 20 years from now, it will add tax revenues to our community.” That seems like an awfully big gamble. This type of auto-centric development is on its way out anyway. Many cities are building these things as infill in areas already accessible by alternate modes of transportation. I could see this coming back to bite Bristol in future. Very poor long-range planning.
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Old 11-10-2014, 12:16 PM
 
30 posts, read 69,103 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rangerred View Post

This type of auto-centric development is on its way out anyway. Many cities are building these things as infill in areas already accessible by alternate modes of transportation. I could see this coming back to bite Bristol in future. Very poor long-range planning.
You always point out the auto centric point and that's such a moot point in this area, you have to have a car around here the area is so spread out and the public transit is almost non existent. Very few people can walk or take any sort of public transit to anything in this area. That's not something that I ever see changing.
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Old 11-10-2014, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Seattle
6,514 posts, read 14,759,465 times
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Also, cities in South Carolina have a difficult time annexing so comparing Greenville's population to Johnson City or Bristol's is very misleading. Just taking a look at the skyline will tell you that Greenville is more comparable to Knoxville.

Spartanburg may be more similar to JC if JC had funneled urban growth into a cohensive area of town.


Cabela's and Bass Pro and Macy's and Steak n Shake are not a competent and sustainable economic development scheme. These businesses suck money out of your community, instead of investing money back in. Supporting Mahoney's is a FAR better and more patriotic choice than going to Bass Pro.
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Old 11-10-2014, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Johnson City, TN
667 posts, read 822,197 times
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Quote:
You always point out the auto centric point and that's such a moot point in this area, you have to have a car around here the area is so spread out and the public transit is almost non existent. Very few people can walk or take any sort of public transit to anything in this area. That's not something that I ever see changing.
It doesn't have to be that way, though. Every city in this area has loads of vacant buildings and land that could be redeveloped and they could provide incentives to developers to build in these locations. A little creativity and long range thinking is required, though, which seems to be beyond the capabilities of our local leaders. Investments in infrastructure like sidewalks, bike lanes and public transportation would also be nice. Retailers will build wherever there is demand, if that means spending some more money on a creative concept at the will of a city they will do it if a return on investment can be had.

I think you are right in that most of the Tri-Cities is auto-oriented. If there is an area that is the exception to this it is the mid and southern portions of Johnson City. I know there has been some preliminary discussion of installing a bike share system and it would work well here. There is some very good potential for successful retail development.
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Old 11-10-2014, 01:46 PM
 
30 posts, read 69,103 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rangerred View Post
It doesn't have to be that way, though. Every city in this area has loads of vacant buildings and land that could be redeveloped and they could provide incentives to developers to build in these locations. A little creativity and long range thinking is required, though, which seems to be beyond the capabilities of our local leaders. Investments in infrastructure like sidewalks, bike lanes and public transportation would also be nice. Retailers will build wherever there is demand, if that means spending some more money on a creative concept at the will of a city they will do it if a return on investment can be had.

I think you are right in that most of the Tri-Cities is auto-oriented. If there is an area that is the exception to this it is the mid and southern portions of Johnson City. I know there has been some preliminary discussion of installing a bike share system and it would work well here. There is some very good potential for successful retail development.
While I'd like to see that kind of change it's just not going to happen, for one I don't think it's in demand. Hardly anybody around here cares about that sort of thing and I don't think any city is going to be willing to invest in a project like that. This area is always going to be car focused, heck try even walking in downtown Kingsport people run over you and don't pay attention to people walking or riding bikes at all and I swear even if something is directly across the street people will just drive to it around here. I've seen more than my fair share of people that won't even walk to a neighbors house they literally will drive if something is even a few doors down. It's just the attitude and how people are here and that's not going to change at least not anytime soon.
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Old 11-10-2014, 02:04 PM
 
30 posts, read 69,103 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by jabogitlu View Post
Cabela's and Bass Pro and Macy's and Steak n Shake are not a competent and sustainable economic development scheme. These businesses suck money out of your community, instead of investing money back in. Supporting Mahoney's is a FAR better and more patriotic choice than going to Bass Pro.
It's almost impossible to shop at a local business around here almost everything we have is a national or at the very least a regional chain which is something I always complain about when it comes to food but it is what it is. As far as clothes go yes I get clothes at Kohls and JCP mostly (and I'd love a Macys here) but where else is one to go? The only local store I can even think of for mens clothing is Blakley-Mitchell and it's honestly quite high and isn't really not my style, I'd love to support locally but it's either not an option or its way more expensive than shopping at a national/regional chain.
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Old 11-10-2014, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Jonesborough, TN
690 posts, read 1,273,232 times
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The Tri Cities, even Johnson City, will never be very friendly to walking and taking public transit as a main form of transportation. And the overwhelming majority of the JC residents like it that way.
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Old 11-10-2014, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
28,316 posts, read 21,234,539 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s_wall98 View Post
I don't think you understood my post. I'm saying that outside of the greater tri city area i don't know why this development would draw from the south. If you factor in a Cabelos then it might. Bass Pro is a great anchor store but there's not much new around it.
If i lived in Greeneville and my wife and i need to go shopping so I'm ready for hunting season and so she can buy clothes, we'd head to Bass Pro in Kodak and then head on to knoxville or the sevierville outlets. If Cabelas moves in up the road from Bass Pro then my thinking might be different.
Do Bass Pro and Cabelas really have enough of a different selection to make going to both worthwhile? Admittedly I'm not a hunter/fisherman, but I've been in both and they seemed similar to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Bear View Post
So...Greenville has 70% more heads than the Tri Cities MSA? That is a LOT of bodies.....like 350,000...

The Mall in Bristol dies.....and the traffic/stores go to the Pinnacle. What has changed other than some "new" buildings?

Then there is that empty place along 81 where Hanes, I believe, has an outlet store. How many tens of thousands of square feet of empty retail space are in that building?

And soon, we get Cabelas? Another how many hundreds of thousands of square feet of "shopping" space?

Now, enter whatever is happening at the corner of 26 and 81. What does that do for the Pinnacle, the Mall, the Cabelas, and the Mall at JC which is already up for sale with two dying anchors (JC Penny and Sears)?

I am not a shopper, admittedly. I cant think of a worse way to spend my time. But many people are, and do find it "recreational" to wander around stores thinking about ways to run up their credit cards. But, at what point does saturation take hold? How many places can compete for those 500,000 folks, plus a few transients, who wander into the area and go "wow", a Bass Pro or a Cabelas--there is nothing like that near where we live?

If the current "health" of the area shopping centers is any indication, not enough. Now we are going to spread those people out over THREE additional shopping Malls, and things are going to get better? MORE people are going to spend MORE money? And everyone is going to thrive?

I am not seeing it, quite honestly.
If you look at the MSAs/CSAs proper, Greenville has a large advantage, but if you look at the overall number of people the Tri-Cities can draw from, the gap probably narrows a bit. I'd think enough of a shopping selection could probably draw as far as Wytheville, VA and Bell/Harlan/Leslie/Fletcher/Whitley (and probably a few more) KY counties. All of these communities are isolated, and though it's quite a hike to the Tri-Cities, there is really not much closer.

The Factory Stores of America was poorly thought through and many of those stores went out of business a few years after it opened in the 1990s. I remember seeing the Star Wars movie with my grandfather there in 1999. The only reason the theater opened up was because all the other stores in the middle of that thing went out. I don't know why it failed so quickly, but that development went nowhere.

Overall though I share your pessimism about the shopping developments.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Rangerred View Post
While the Tri-Cities CSA is over 500,000 the Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson CSA is nearly 1.5 million so comparing apples to apples that area is much larger.

The Tri-Cities is composed of the Kingsport-Bristol MSA at 305,000 and the Johnson City MSA at 195,000. More and more it appears these two are beginning to function more independent of one another at the retail level. I don't see the Pinnacle impacting Johnson City's retail scene at all but Kingsport could be another story. I think you will see Kingsport's sales tax revenue decline once this project is fully complete due to the duplication of stores. The funny thing is Kingsport is the city that lobbied for the border regions law to be passed allowing cities to keep a portion of the state's share of sales tax revenue to be used as a development incentive. They got caught with their pants down when the developer of the property at 81 and 26 jumped ship and Bristol took advantage.

One thing in the article linked in the original post caught my attention. "In time, 15 or 20 years from now, it will add tax revenues to our community.” That seems like an awfully big gamble. This type of auto-centric development is on its way out anyway. Many cities are building these things as infill in areas already accessible by alternate modes of transportation. I could see this coming back to bite Bristol in future. Very poor long-range planning.
I have no idea how many of the stores in Kingsport are hanging on. There is virtually nothing of note in Kingsport that isn't done better in Bristol/JC.

Also, who's to say Bass Pro will be around in a decade, especially if Cabela's also comes? It's too much for the population and disposable income the area has.

I don't see how the autocentric development will impact anything in the Tri-Cities. There is no other viable option in the Tri-Cities, and won't ever probably be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noneyabusiness View Post
It's almost impossible to shop at a local business around here almost everything we have is a national or at the very least a regional chain which is something I always complain about when it comes to food but it is what it is. As far as clothes go yes I get clothes at Kohls and JCP mostly (and I'd love a Macys here) but where else is one to go? The only local store I can even think of for mens clothing is Blakley-Mitchell and it's honestly quite high and isn't really not my style, I'd love to support locally but it's either not an option or its way more expensive than shopping at a national/regional chain.
But isn't this a problem everywhere? I know here in Indy we are chained out the wazoo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rangerred View Post
It doesn't have to be that way, though. Every city in this area has loads of vacant buildings and land that could be redeveloped and they could provide incentives to developers to build in these locations. A little creativity and long range thinking is required, though, which seems to be beyond the capabilities of our local leaders. Investments in infrastructure like sidewalks, bike lanes and public transportation would also be nice. Retailers will build wherever there is demand, if that means spending some more money on a creative concept at the will of a city they will do it if a return on investment can be had.

I think you are right in that most of the Tri-Cities is auto-oriented. If there is an area that is the exception to this it is the mid and southern portions of Johnson City. I know there has been some preliminary discussion of installing a bike share system and it would work well here. There is some very good potential for successful retail development.
There are certain areas where this will go over well (like this part of JC and perhaps some other parts), but it's going to be a niche thing, if that.

I totally agree that something needs to be done with vacant land and buildings, but what? People aren't going to just buy these buildings on whims or if they don't think the investment is going to yield a tangible result and turn a profit. That's assuming the property would even sell in the first place. Would anyone really want that Factory Stores of America outlet building, even at a fire sale price? It's unlikely that property will ever do much.

The infrastructure improvements are perhaps needed in certain areas, but it doesn't fix the underlying problem - the area needs more people who have money to invest or spend in/at businesses. A bunch of folks making $10-$12/hr at Citi, ACT, the manufacturers, etc, aren't going to drive the economy, nor is attracting wealthy, but economically less active, Yankee retirees.
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