Is economy in Tri Cities recovering yet? (Johnson City, Kingsport: sale, home)

[jchometeam]

My only disagreement here is that JC has a large upper class, and a large number of poor people. Not many in the middle, but such is our national economy at this point. To say that the upper class is small in this city is incorrect, look around at the number of high end neighorhoods in the city.

25 jobs paying $125,000 is significant. It will help the housing market, the retail establishments, the tax base, etc.

Even this number of $25,000 jobs is significant. I am hopeful that this company hires many of the railroad jobs that were lost today. They will likely be hard workers who will not take their jobs for granted. I do feel very bad for Erwin. Unicoi County is losing police officers quickly because they can't afford to pay them, this will make things so much worse for everyone in that area.

[Rangerred]

Unicoi County, and Carter for that matter, really have a lot going for them in terms of natural beauty and the tourism potential that goes along with that. It's just a matter of convincing those in power to capitalize on the opportunities. Carter County is taking the lead on extending the Tweetsie Trail to Roan Mountain which has huge potential to be a major tourist draw.

Unicoi County, IMO, is in an even better position than Carter County when it comes to tourism potential. The Appalachian Trail passes very close to Erwin and with Rocky Fork State Park being developed, the town could really bill itself as an outdoor adventure destination. The potential is really incredible when you think about it. The town itself is in a beautiful setting, extremely convenient to JC and Asheville and is the only place in the region with 1GB internet service.

All of this points to the Tri-Cities, at least the JC metro, needing to work together for the betterment of the area. Johnson City is obviously the anchor city of Northeast TN as it is the only city with real population growth and has an extremely diverse economy. Carter and Unicoi Counties (and the cities within) need to promote more of their natural beauty and recreational opportunities but proximity to big city amenities. The idea that every city in the region, big and small, is competing for industry is horribly outdated and will simply not work for the Tri-Cities. An automotive assembly plant is not coming here.

[Page2]

Here's were you can look at the local data. Core Data There's also a monthly report on local economic conditions at AUGUST ANOTHER HOME SALES RECORD MONTH – OTHER INDICATORS POSITIVE | Northeast Tennessee Association Realtors In general most sectors of the local economy have recovered, but there are exceptions. New home construction remains at about half its pre-recession capacity and private sector wages in the Johnson City MSA have taken a big hit. Existing home sales have been in the double-digit increase range for several months. In many ways the local recovery is very similar - just not as robust - as we see on the national level. The local economy is still experiencing the after effects of a reduction in manufacturing and coal industry jobs. It is also feeling the transition of an aging demographic much earlier than the rest of the nation. But almost all discussion on the economy focus on a personal perspective: Is the glass half full or half empty? when the real question should be how do we get a bigger glass. I personally know companies who are looking for workers but when applicants are told they will have to pass a drug test more than half walk out. At the same time, some companies have overly high education requirements for jobs.

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by jchometeam

My only disagreement here is that JC has a large upper class, and a large number of poor people. Not many in the middle, but such is our national economy at this point. To say that the upper class is small in this city is incorrect, look around at the number of high end neighorhoods in the city.

25 jobs paying $125,000 is significant. It will help the housing market, the retail establishments, the tax base, etc.

Even this number of $25,000 jobs is significant. I am hopeful that this company hires many of the railroad jobs that were lost today. They will likely be hard workers who will not take their jobs for granted. I do feel very bad for Erwin. Unicoi County is losing police officers quickly because they can't afford to pay them, this will make things so much worse for everyone in that area.

Agreed about the high end neighborhoods. There are some wealthy people, but like Page2 mentions, the average private sector wage have taken a hit. Basically that says the wealth is from elsewhere and not from income earned locally.

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by Rangerred

Unicoi County, and Carter for that matter, really have a lot going for them in terms of natural beauty and the tourism potential that goes along with that. It's just a matter of convincing those in power to capitalize on the opportunities. Carter County is taking the lead on extending the Tweetsie Trail to Roan Mountain which has huge potential to be a major tourist draw.

Unicoi County, IMO, is in an even better position than Carter County when it comes to tourism potential. The Appalachian Trail passes very close to Erwin and with Rocky Fork State Park being developed, the town could really bill itself as an outdoor adventure destination. The potential is really incredible when you think about it. The town itself is in a beautiful setting, extremely convenient to JC and Asheville and is the only place in the region with 1GB internet service.

All of this points to the Tri-Cities, at least the JC metro, needing to work together for the betterment of the area. Johnson City is obviously the anchor city of Northeast TN as it is the only city with real population growth and has an extremely diverse economy. Carter and Unicoi Counties (and the cities within) need to promote more of their natural beauty and recreational opportunities but proximity to big city amenities. The idea that every city in the region, big and small, is competing for industry is horribly outdated and will simply not work for the Tri-Cities. An automotive assembly plant is not coming here.

One thing I've wondered about since I moved off is why there is so little advertising or a campaign from the state government for tourism in Tennessee. Yes, the Smokies get a lot of attention, but when you think about it...there really doesn't seem to be a coordinated effort to promote tourism in large parts of the state.

When you go into Michigan, you are pretty much blasted with the "Pure Michigan" ad slogans. You have the individual town/attraction booklets you'd find anywhere, but the effort seems to be much more driven by the state and well coordinated. You even see the pure Michigan billboards here in Indy. TN could use a campaign like that to help draw tourists into some of the more remote counties that are struggling..

[kamoshika]

Kingsport's retail sector in particular is doing quite well. Adjusted for inflation, the city's post-recession retail sales growth rate has exceeded Knoxville's & Chattanooga's. And Bristol is finally starting to catch up a bit.

During the July to September quarter, dollar sales in the Tri-Cities Combined Statistical Area (CSA) rose 6.0% to $1,855 million. Adjusted for the mild inflation rate, real metro sales were up 5.9%. The last two quarters mark the best retail performance since 2012.

...All three East Tennessee metro areas have yet to recover to 2007 levels. Chattanooga is closest, where sales volume is down only 0.3%. Knoxville and the Tri-Cities are still about five percent below the 2007 retail peak. Among the Tri-Cities, Kingsport has had the best retail recovery and real sales are up three percent. Johnson City retail volume is down by 4.4%, and surprisingly, Bristol retail volume is 12.5% below the pre-recession highpoint.
Tri-Cities Retail Sales Report Third Quarter 2015

Driving back to Kingsport from Bristol, VA yesterday, the traffic jam to get into The Pinnacle was unlike any I've ever seen in the Tri-Cities, with hundreds of cars backed up to the interstate and past the hospital on 11W.

“We did a traffic count over the last few weeks and we had 26,000 cars a day coming in and out of The Pinnacle so it has been tremendous this holiday season,” said developer of The Pinnacle, Steve Johnson.
Holiday Shopping Increases at The Pinnacle | www.abc19.tv

[rccrain]

From what I've heard, the gem of the Pinnacle in the new theater.

[Page2]

Updated data on the original question about Tri-Cities economic recovery.

Strong Nov. growth pushes Tri-Cities jobs past pre-recession level
Strong Nov. growth pushes Tri-Cities jobs past pre-recession level

NE Tenn. home sales continue at brisk pace in Nov.
Trends | Northeast Tennessee Association Realtors

Kingsport-Bristol Oct. sales tax collections lead area’s MSAs, second best in E. TN
Kingsport-Bristol Oct. sales tax collections lead area’s MSAs, second best in E. TN
Nov. sales tax collections just out today. Kingsport-Bristol y-y up 5.2%, Johnson City MSA up 3.9%

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by Page2

Updated data on the original question about Tri-Cities economic recovery.

Strong Nov. growth pushes Tri-Cities jobs past pre-recession level
Strong Nov. growth pushes Tri-Cities jobs past pre-recession level

NE Tenn. home sales continue at brisk pace in Nov.
Trends | Northeast Tennessee Association Realtors

Kingsport-Bristol Oct. sales tax collections lead area’s MSAs, second best in E. TN
Kingsport-Bristol Oct. sales tax collections lead area’s MSAs, second best in E. TN
Nov. sales tax collections just out today. Kingsport-Bristol y-y up 5.2%, Johnson City MSA up 3.9%

I did notice a bit more vibrancy, especially in Johnson City. There seemed to be more crowds out than anticipated, homes seemed to be selling (with some sold signs), and there just seemed to be a little more hustle and bustle than the last few years.

[Page2]

I'm seeing the same thing. More traffic in Johnson City and things really picking up in Elizabethton. But the numbers seem to show that Kingsport-Bristol has survived and made the best recovery. Maybe it's the old mfg. core even though it's no longer the leading job provider. Of course that's Census data based on geo-political boundaries. What we see is market activity and neither consumers or markets always conform to the geo-political boundaries.

Kingsport-Bristol all households – family incomes weather recession better than Johnson City MSA