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Kingsport - Johnson City - Bristol The Tri-Cities area
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Old 08-01-2009, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Gray, TN
2,172 posts, read 4,019,056 times
Reputation: 911

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Most economists expect the nation wide recession to end with in the next 3 quarters. But what about our local economy? Unemployment in JC is still trickling upward to 9.9%. Bristol-Kpt is a little higher at 10.2%. But it is fairly standard economics that employment is the last thing to recover from a recession.

It seems to me that folks have cut back on their discretionary expenses. I expect that most of our retail and restaurants have seen approx a 10% decrease in sales. Walmart, McDonald's, and Little Caesars are likely the exceptions.

I suspect that savings accounts at the local banks are up even more than the national average. People are beefing up their just in case funds. I'm also willing to bet that many TriCitians are taking advantage of the Cash4Clunkers program ... lets face it, we probably have a high per capita of clunkers; the program just doesn't help the guy that lost his executive job and is upside down on his beamer, but about 25% of my HS buddies have a qualifying vehicle.

Currently, I actually like our position to come out of this recession with fervor, especially if we can secure federal stimulus funds for our most glaring problems.

What is your opinion? When will places like Eastman/Exide begin hiring again?

Also, I'd especially like to hear from those involved in real estate. They are calling a bottom in housing nationally. Does the same apply locally? And what damage has been done as far as the decline in value of a typical family home?
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Old 08-02-2009, 11:37 PM
 
Location: Steilacoom, WA by way of East Tennessee
1,049 posts, read 3,730,106 times
Reputation: 701
I dunno about the local economy, I'd say that the national unemployment rate should peak around 12% (official rate) currently the unofficial rate is somewhere between 15-18% if you count those underemployed or no longer avail for benefits, etc.

Exide will need to rehire the 600 or so people it laid off to get back to normal.

I know several people that have been laid off, an unfortunately one of those fella's recently committed suicide after being laid off from his long time employer.

So I'll look at my foggy crystal ball and say 12% unemployment by end of 2011 and declining after that, of course that could change depending on how much "change" we have left over from the pending tax increases our system is going to have to enact to pay for cash for clunkers, cash for bankers, cash for the chinese, cash for automakers, cash for insurance companies, cash for wall street, cash ??

For me, I'll be happy if I can find a decent paying job by the end of sept ($15-20 hr)

Btw, our local economy can't be too bad, the mall is usually busy, the car lots were selling cars like hotcakes this weekend, so overall even though there have been several thousand lay offs this year, everyone one else has got to be doing pretty good and that's a good thing.

Last edited by Tony1790; 08-03-2009 at 12:34 AM..
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Old 08-03-2009, 08:21 AM
 
Location: Beautiful East TN!!
7,281 posts, read 19,684,472 times
Reputation: 2770
Default As far as Real Estate

I am no Real Estate Agent, but have been keeping up with some folks looking for a house this week in the Tri and it was eye opening. Several houses they liked had contracts on them within 2 weeks of going on the market (no, not foreclosures) and looks to be pretty much at asking price. There were very few that had been on the market for any length of time and those that were had obvious reasons for being so such as location was bad, needed lots of work, etc. Prices seem to be going up too. Much fewer properties of quality in the under 200k range than 6 months ago. Not sure about the actual statistical numbers but property values seem to be going up and properties are moving at a fast clip.
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Old 08-03-2009, 09:00 AM
 
Location: Gray, TN
2,172 posts, read 4,019,056 times
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mb, what about condos? Any perceivable difference?
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Old 08-03-2009, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Steilacoom, WA by way of East Tennessee
1,049 posts, read 3,730,106 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbmouse View Post
Prices seem to be going up too.
I've noticed the same thing, several homes that I was following have recently went up in price, all positive for local home values. On the other hand, land seems to be going down in price.

Tony
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Old 08-03-2009, 11:54 AM
 
Location: Jonesborough, TN
697 posts, read 1,292,509 times
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I will address the condo issue, as ive been dealing with this for the last few weeks from multiple lenders( MB can tell me if Im wrong). It seems that the only way to get a condo financed is to do an in house loan at a bank, as they are almost impossible to be sold in the secondary market right now. Each bank has different requirements in their in house loans, but almost every time the credit score has to be GREAT and the down payment significantly larger. If someone has cash, a great time to get a deal on condos...

As for homes, home values have not gone down (they never have here). The issue is that larger homes simply arent selling, and cheaper homes are moving much quicker.
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Old 08-03-2009, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Limestone,TN/Bucerias, Mexico
1,452 posts, read 2,927,843 times
Reputation: 496
I'm happy to hear optimism in most of your comments! Now hopefully it will find its way to downtown JC and my mom's beautiful condo (and other downtown props) will finally find a buyer.. It appears now could be a fortuitous time to buy, before the Fed decides to raise interest rates from their all-time low..
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Old 08-03-2009, 06:22 PM
 
Location: Beautiful East TN!!
7,281 posts, read 19,684,472 times
Reputation: 2770
I agree with the last two posts. Must use local bank and have perfect qualifications to buy a condo any way except cash right now. Yes, rates will be going up..when? My crystal ball won't give up that info. But they will go up.
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Old 08-03-2009, 09:40 PM
 
9,803 posts, read 14,368,642 times
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I look for interest rates to go up in mid 2011 ( a little less than 2 years from now )
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Old 08-03-2009, 09:58 PM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,576 posts, read 49,506,538 times
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I love to play this game! Right MBMouse?

I think that real estate hit bottom but is on its way up. That's nationally, because in Eastern Tennessee we lost little to no value and it has gone up. There's a house on my street that went for abou $20,000 than I would have guessed!

But those McMansions are going to sit for awhile.

I hope they extend the first-time homebuyer program. That's a big concern.

The recession seems to be over. Yes, I said that.

It will take quite awhile for unemployment to go down.

I think we will see a big improvement overall, next summer.

I haven't been wrong yet, but that could mean that I am VERY wrong this time. I sure hope not, though.

Thanks, y'all, for letting me play!

Now we can look back and see how far off I am.

I don't understand the condo issue. Is it because the banks think that the condos are not worth much?
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