[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Look at it this way - when the realtor on this board who has been cheerleading higher prices for years finally capitulates and concedes that prices may not go anywhere for years, it's probably not a bad time to start looking in earnest.

That aside, not all RE investors are necessarily making a bet on housing appreciation right now. There's a lot of cash right now sitting on the sidelines in money market accounts that's making next to nothing. If you can invest in real estate with a cap rate in the high single/low double digits it can look very attractive relative to the alternatives.

Tony even has to throw in the mandatory insult before he agrees with me.

Olecapt has never advocated higher prices and the idea that he cares about price simply shows how little understanding Tony has of RE and the selling of same.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by KevK

I just do not agree with that assessment. The real estate market in LV is not any different than what it is elsewhere. It was just overbuilt and when the tourist economy collapsed, it took a HUGE hit- probably worse than anyplace but Florida. That gives it a lot of upside as the economy comes back on line. Tourism will pick up and jobs will be coming back. People still like to come to LV and it is still a desired place to live. Just today, it was reported that the LV area was one of only a few that is seeing price increases on real estate. Like I said, it has a huge upside and that is why people who know how to make money are snapping up everything in the valley they can get their hands on.

Las Vegas bucks downward trend, notches home price gain - Tuesday, Nov. 30, 2010 | 8:19 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun

The Las Vegas housing market was among the best performers nationwide in September, new data today from the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show.

Case Shiller data trails 60 days. And what it shows is what has been true for the last 14 months. Las Vegas is bouncing along the bottom. It did very badly in October and will bounce back only partially in November.

It is however very nice to see CS reflection a positve month...it has been a long long time coming.

There simply is, as of now, no indicating of an upturn.

And it is not like everywhere else. Pehaps the inland empire but even Phoenix and FL are pretty different.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Tony even has to throw in the mandatory insult before he agrees with me.

What part of my statement did you find insulting? That you were cheerleading the housing market, or that you've finally thrown in the towel?

Olecapt has never advocated higher prices and the idea that he cares about price simply shows how little understanding Tony has of RE and the selling of same.

You go beyond revisionism into the realm of quackery. The realtor who bet a steak dinner that median prices would be higher in 2008 than 2006, the realtor that created a thread with great fanfare that prices had bottomed and were going higher in May 2009, the realtor that created a poll this year in which he predicted YoY price increases between 5%-10% for 2010, never advocated higher prices? Bwahahaha.

The same realtor who has been wrong for years about housing prices going higher now says -

Originally Posted by olecapt

Anyone dumb enough to pick up housing in Vegas hoping for appreciation is going to do very badly. The prices on REOs continue to drop.

Good news folks - now that the greatest contrarian indicator for Vegas housing prices has finally capitulated, it's a great sign that the bottom is actually closer at hand.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

What part of my statement did you find insulting? That you were cheerleading the housing market, or that you've finally thrown in the towel?

Yes I always cheerlead the RE Market. That of course is not what you said. Slipping a little? Can't remember between posts what you said in the first.

I have no towel to throw in on housing pricing. Not my concern.

You go beyond revisionism into the realm of quackery. The realtor who bet a steak dinner that median prices would be higher in 2008 than 2006

Yup got that one wrong. Thought we would go in a different direction. But that simply said I thought prices would rise...and they did not.

, the realtor that created a thread with great fanfare that prices had bottomed and were going higher in May 2009,

Yup. and that was exactly right. And prices will go up. Wait. I however called the bottom I think I suggested we might get to the start of the bubble pricing in 5 years...though it may take longer. I also said don't wait for 2006 pricing that would be a very long time coming...

//www.city-data.com/forum/las-v...s-arrived.html

the realtor that created a poll this year in which he predicted YoY price increases between 5%-10% for 2010, never advocated higher prices? Bwahahaha.

Again. I was relatively positive but not strongly so. So what? I don't get it right all the time. But it did not drop another 10% or 25% as was projected elsewhere...and still is.

And note I still don't care. My interest in a price rise is limited to my own home ownership.

The same realtor who has been wrong for years about housing prices going higher now says - Good news folks - now that the greatest contrarian indicator for Vegas housing prices has finally capitulated, it's a great sign that the bottom is actually closer at hand.

Well as I readily admit I missed the lender suicide as did virtually everyone. Other than that I do OK. I called the bottom and it was there. I thought we might move up a little and we did not. Then again we did not drop any huge amount either.

You have picked up some fixation that I care professionally about prices rising. That is simply stupid and shows how little you actually understand. I care about velocity. And I prefer prices rise very gently. That is so old customers don't end up under water. Otherwise why would I care?

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Yes I always cheerlead the RE Market. That of course is not what you said. Slipping a little? Can't remember between posts what you said in the first.

I remember what I said just fine. When I say you cheerlead the housing market I am of course talking about higher prices. Why else would anyone cheer the housing market or any other market for that matter?

I have no towel to throw in on housing pricing. Not my concern.

Of course you're not concerned, but anyone who is underwater after relying on your horrible sense of market direction may not be so sanguine.

Yup got that one wrong. Thought we would go in a different direction. But that simply said I thought prices would rise...and they did not.

I think horrifically wrong might be a more accurate characterization. In the two-year time period of your bet, SFR median housing prices fell an additional 44%. Oopsie.

Yup. and that was exactly right. And prices will go up. Wait. I however called the bottom I think I suggested we might get to the start of the bubble pricing in 5 years...though it may take longer. I also said don't wait for 2006 pricing that would be a very long time coming...

//www.city-data.com/forum/las-v...s-arrived.html

Well, when prices have slipped "only" 6% since your last bottom call it probably feels "exactly right" doesn't it? Remember, May '09 was supposed to close higher than April '09. It didn't happen. In fact it took a full year for prices to close higher than May '09. Fast forward to Oct '10 and prices are 6% below your bombastic, exactly right, bottom call. Woohoo!

Again. I was relatively positive but not strongly so. So what? I don't get it right all the time. But it did not drop another 10% or 25% as was projected elsewhere...and still is.

Hey, why strive to be accurate when you're perfectly content to just be less wrong?

And note I still don't care. My interest in a price rise is limited to my own home ownership.

No surprise there.

Well as I readily admit I missed the lender suicide as did virtually everyone. Other than that I do OK. I called the bottom and it was there. I thought we might move up a little and we did not. Then again we did not drop any huge amount either.

The second edition of Robert Shiller's Irrational Exuberance was published in 2005. The second edition expanded the discussion beyond equity bubbles to include the housing bubble and its likely conclusion. Fortunately, Shiller is more widely read than you are so there are plenty of people who saw it coming - it's just that you were not one of them.

You have picked up some fixation that I care professionally about prices rising. That is simply stupid and shows how little you actually understand. I care about velocity. And I prefer prices rise very gently. That is so old customers don't end up under water. Otherwise why would I care?

On the contrary. I fully agree that you don't care what housing prices do (outside of your personal residence) as long as you can continue to sell homes. That said, if people are content to sit on the sidelines because they think prices are going lower, you don't sell many homes. What other explanation is there for your being so wrong for so long?

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The prices on REOs continue to drop. The play is for a rental unit that costs little. They will return something like 7 to 10%. At this point they have little risk other than a lower return. They may appreciate in time but it may also be five years before they break even.

This is also a significant risk IMO. In your own words, it may be years before the market turns. In the meantime, Vegas neighborhoods can rapidly go to crap. Faster than anywhere else I've seen. And that means risk of pricedrop that surpasses the normal market trends.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by olecapt

....You have picked up some fixation that I care professionally about prices rising. That is simply stupid and shows how little you actually understand. I care about velocity. And I prefer prices rise very gently. ..Otherwise why would I care?

You asked: Why would you care if home prices rose??? Because deflation stops many people from buying a home! If some people were convinced in 2007 and 2008 that it was a great time to buy, then you might reel in a few fish.

Taken from the "Deflation for Dummies series": (see Why Is Deflation That Bad (the "for Dummies" series) | www.bullfax.com )

"Once deflation reigns in, there is no incentive to spend or invest. You will be earning money ( or at least your money will be worth more ) by doing nothing."

At least some RE agents had their pom-poms on talking about appreciation (or slowing down of depreciation) in an effort to get the velocity going! When the velocity is high (people are buying as they are now), then some RE agents can go back to an ethical mode and tell people what they really think because enough people want to buy. So telling it straight right now doesn't change the velocity.

Motivation is easy to understand. Follow the money.