Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Nevada > Las Vegas
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 11-15-2007, 02:25 PM
 
289 posts, read 1,038,122 times
Reputation: 85

Advertisements

Wells Fargo: Home Slump Like Great Depression

mod cut: text removed


continues:

Wells Fargo: Home Slump Like Great Depression - Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/business/2007/11/15/wells-fargo-bank-markets-equity-cx_er_1115markets20.html - broken link)

Last edited by scirocco22; 03-02-2008 at 12:07 PM.. Reason: copyright issues
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 11-16-2007, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Beautiful Upstate NY!
13,814 posts, read 28,446,962 times
Reputation: 7615
...and the beat goes on.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-16-2007, 04:16 PM
 
149 posts, read 346,598 times
Reputation: 72
Default Agree but if retirees can't sell their primary

residences they'll need to defer their move, esp. if they have a lot of equity tied up with their primary residence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ParkTwain View Post
This is a half-baked premise in a second-home/retirement-driven housing market, as in Vegas and much of Florida. In other words, in such markets local economic conditions for wage-earners aren't sufficient to analyze price elasticity of demand for housing. Furthermore, the boom, and now the bust, in housing is driven by access to lender capital, and by organized mortgage application fraud. The securitization of mortgages will not go away but will become more transparently structured, probably resulting in less capital available to sub-prime applicants.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-16-2007, 11:59 PM
 
289 posts, read 1,038,122 times
Reputation: 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Young View Post
Dude - could you please provide the link to your source? I haven't seen this anywhere else - and I receive emails directly from Wamu when their guidelines change.
NEWS OUT - WAMU STOPS DOING ALL JUMBO ARM - MarketTicker Forums
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-17-2007, 01:04 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
403 posts, read 1,168,793 times
Reputation: 216
This is a much more relevant post, Dude. I'm also a regular reader of Roubini (and of Schiller, although I stand by my comments that he has demonstrated a propensity to utterly miss huge, multi-year directional turns in the market). As far as the projections being made by the good folks at Morgan Stanley, I'm sure you're aware that these are the very same geniuses that last week announced $3.7 billion in losses on mortgage-related investments over the past two months. (Morgan Stanley Reveals $3.7B Subprime Hit - Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/markets/commodities/2007/11/07/morgan-merrill-subprime-markets-equity-cx_er_1107markets53.html - broken link))

I personally believe that Goldman's estimate for total subprime losses of $400B is still low, but the extent of the de-leveraging that has to occur is well beyond my grasp at this point (and apparently beyond the grasp of the Goldman analyst, as well - he punted with that amateur-ish equation of "50% of potential losses x 10 = reduction in lending" - my mother could have come up with a guesstimate like that).

As far as your source for the Wamu info is concerned, I still can't find any confirmation of it - it hasn't even merited a peep out of ML Implode. That aside, however, the elimination of jumbo option ARM refis and multi-pay is hardly earth shattering nor could anyone seriously construe the demise of these refi methods as indicative of anything that is not already known throughout the industry. That one cranked-up options day-trader declares it to be the harbinger of Armegeddon hardly makes it so.

On the macro side, it's my view that most of the pieces of the puzzle are already in view and that both the nature and the extent of the problem is reasonably well-known. The question I believe that people need to contemplate now is how do the macro players respond? If the super conduit isn't stillborn, will such a vehicle make a difference and, if so, in what way? Is there a Fannie/Freddie play to be made? The Fed has authority over most aspects of lending, if it chooses to exercise it - will it do so and, if so, how?

I personally think we are going to monetize at least a sizable portion of the problem and inflate our way out, but I would be keenly interested in anyone else's thoughts. At the end of the day, the ability to think beyond the current mess and to estimate likely government and market responses is what people need to be doing now if their goal is to be properly positioned in the future.

Last edited by Eric Young; 11-17-2007 at 02:29 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-20-2007, 12:45 AM
 
113 posts, read 357,593 times
Reputation: 49
Default Auctions?

I've seen some commercials for a couple of big foreclosure home auctions lately. What's the deal with them? Anyone experienced on how they work or been to one? With the auction atmosphere and people bidding emotionally doesn't that drive the prices up higher than if you just saw a foreclosure on the mls and submitted an offer. Just curious. I'm inherently suspicious of things that appear too good to be true (reserve price of half of the appraisal price of the house). Also, an update and please wish us luck. We put an offer in on a home. Love it. No one behind us. Nice community. But....it's bank owned so either 1) We won't hear back for weeks or 2) They'll reject our offer and keep the house on the market for another 6 months, losing money, and end up dropping the price below what we were willing to pay.....I'm a bit of a pessimist. Plus I think that banks are just silly stupid.

Dee
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-20-2007, 02:37 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
403 posts, read 1,168,793 times
Reputation: 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by deefromlv View Post
I've seen some commercials for a couple of big foreclosure home auctions lately. What's the deal with them? Anyone experienced on how they work or been to one? With the auction atmosphere and people bidding emotionally doesn't that drive the prices up higher than if you just saw a foreclosure on the mls and submitted an offer. Just curious. I'm inherently suspicious of things that appear too good to be true (reserve price of half of the appraisal price of the house). Also, an update and please wish us luck. We put an offer in on a home. Love it. No one behind us. Nice community. But....it's bank owned so either 1) We won't hear back for weeks or 2) They'll reject our offer and keep the house on the market for another 6 months, losing money, and end up dropping the price below what we were willing to pay.....I'm a bit of a pessimist. Plus I think that banks are just silly stupid.


I spent dozens of hours preparing for the big auction on August 5. For a variety of reasons, none of my clients were successful bidders, but what I witnessed did cause me to speak afterwards with many of the listing agents that had properties in the auction and to track the progress of them after the fact (http://www.lvrj.com/business/9328851.html). After the mention in the Review-Journal, several agents have written to me asking for updates, which I continued to do through mid-October. Here’s a copy of an email update I sent to a broker just a few days ago…

Dear XXX –

Here are the stats I had compiled on October 5th, two months after the original auction date:

About 6 closed within thirty days. The average asking price was $211,000 prior to the auction. After factoring the 5% auction house charge, the average closing price was 15% below pre-auction asking price.

By the end of the second month, there were a total of 38 properties that had closed (of the original 85 or so that I tracked). The average pre-auction asking price of these 38 was $311,000 prior to the auction. After factoring the 5% H&M charge, the average closing price of these 38 was 12% below pre-auction asking price.

Thirty-one homes were back on the market (ER) by October 5th. Their average pre-auction price was $343,500. All 38 had undergone a price reduction following the auction (anyway from 1% to 11%) with an average price reduction of 5.5%.

Assuming few if any of these 38 have generated an offer during the past month, I would presume that many have had a second price reduction as well. Think you could buy any of these for 15% below the pre-auction asking price?

I sure would think so.

-Eric

You can interpret these results any way you wish. I don’t want to bore everyone with all the details – my posts are already waaay too long!! But suffice to say the process was a surprise for many participants. If you are seriously interested, let me know and I’ll forward you copies of the correspondence I had with the papers and other interested agents.

Hope this is helpful, and good luck with your offer.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-20-2007, 08:17 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,127,294 times
Reputation: 2661
So the auction actually sold 45% or so of the homes offered? Your comments state they were sold in the 60 days but not neccessarily as a result of the auction. That is a better yield than initially expected.

As I follow the REPOs it appears that the low end product is selling. A median price of around 250K. The REPOs offered for sale however show a higher median - around $270K. The non-REPOs appear to be hanging in there with a median in the high 280s.

Looks to me like the market is heading for a two-tiered distribution. The REPOs and the builder response are pulling particular tracts down by 50 to 100K (20 to 33%) but more established neighborhoods are still holding at less than 10% down yoy. So we end up with comps that bash selected neighborhoods while others coast on a much gentler ride. Maybe even invert...same house newer costs less than same house older. I would think it would wash over time but that would certainly complicate things in the imterim.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-20-2007, 08:34 AM
 
Location: New York, NY
307 posts, read 926,935 times
Reputation: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
So the auction actually sold 45% or so of the homes offered? Your comments state they were sold in the 60 days but not neccessarily as a result of the auction. That is a better yield than initially expected.

As I follow the REPOs it appears that the low end product is selling. A median price of around 250K. The REPOs offered for sale however show a higher median - around $270K. The non-REPOs appear to be hanging in there with a median in the high 280s.

Looks to me like the market is heading for a two-tiered distribution. The REPOs and the builder response are pulling particular tracts down by 50 to 100K (20 to 33%) but more established neighborhoods are still holding at less than 10% down yoy. So we end up with comps that bash selected neighborhoods while others coast on a much gentler ride. Maybe even invert...same house newer costs less than same house older. I would think it would wash over time but that would certainly complicate things in the imterim.
Which neighborhoods are seeing the biggest downturn and which are holding up the best?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-20-2007, 09:50 AM
 
285 posts, read 784,066 times
Reputation: 219
This relates to what I found when I drove the "Vistas" in Summerlin over the weekend. The "average" neigborhoods say, under $400,000 had very few For Sale signs. When ever I went into a gated area with houses over $500,000, there were For Sale signs on about 1 out of every four houses.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Settings
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2020 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Nevada > Las Vegas

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:46 PM.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top