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Actually, LV is at the epicenter of the housing bubble.
You know, I have a close friend that lives in the Modesto-Stockton area and the housing market there is very bad. Their home lost almost 150K in the last year. The prices there were jacked up by Bay Area buyers that commuted 1-3 hours to work and investors. The local economy there is agriculture and the locals cannot afford the stupid house prices it escalated to. From news reports in that area, it seems to me that the situation there is worse than Las Vegas. But i'm not an expert so what do I know. Here are some links..
I'm ABSOLUTELY SICK of the moronic thinking I see on this forum, thatsomehow Vegas exists in a bubble that is insulated from larger nationwide troubles.
Apparently, you and I aren't reading the same thread.
Except for you, most posters here seem to have a pretty realistic sense of the LV metro market. No one here is disputing that LV is in the midst of a severe housing recession. What is being discussed and sometimes debated is the severity and longevity of this recession.
Perhaps no one here is expressing your particular view:that we're in a housing depression, it will get worse by an order of magnitude or more, it will last for a decade or longer and the American and international economic system has a high likelihood of collapsing.
At least I think that's your view...but it's kind of hard to tell. Almost all of your posts are simply links to articles with a pessimistic outlook on housing in general or Las Vegas in particular. You rarely actually write anything yourself.
Here are ten of the sixteen threads that you’ve started here:
---Survey ranks Nevada the most dangerous state ---Lots of stolen cars in Vegas? ---Clock is Ticking on Las Vegas' Water Supply ---Las Vegas observations (for haters only!) ---Lady Luck turns on Vegas real estate ---Countrywide tightens lending rules in Vegas ---Las Vegas home prices will "decline the most" ---Home losing value? Just walk away from it ---Flippers Flop As Vegas Housing Market Cools ---Look at these graphs before buying Vegas real estate
Not one of these has more than ten words you’ve personally written. What is it you’re expecting here, Dude? Are we to discuss or debate Las Vegas or LV housing with the “guest writers” you’re bringing us?
Even worse, most of the articles you reference in your posts here are national in scope (there are other forums on City-Data for that – this is a local thread). Too many of the “guest writers” you present to us are biased towards their own agendas, or are completely anonymous bloggers, or simply out of their minds. No matter, if they’ve written something negative about housing or Las Vegas, you want the world to see it!
You never did answer my question about the LA Times article that you said was about:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dude66
tent cities are starting to spring up California, full of people who have been foreclosed on...
I’ll ask you again…did you read the article? Did you read the paragraph that said "no current residents claim to be victims of foreclosure"?
At least we “morons” are occasionally adding some value to the topic of the Las Vegas housing market. We’re actually investing a bit of time to write down and share our own words and perspectives.
That’s a hell of a lot more than anyone here can say about your contributions, Dude.
My own situation is exactly the opposite. I've been in this house a long, long time. The boom in 2004 increased my home value, but I had no intention of selling. The only change it meant for me was higher taxes. I saw the neighbors sell at inflated values in early 2005, then the new neighbors had to discount to sell the same house early this year.
Oddly, values are declining, but the taxes are still rising. Oh well.
Apparently, you and I aren't reading the same thread.
Except for you, most posters here seem to have a pretty realistic sense of the LV metro market. No one here is disputing that LV is in the midst of a severe housing recession. What is being discussed and sometimes debated is the severity and longevity of this recession.
Perhaps no one here is expressing your particular view:that we're in a housing depression, it will get worse by an order of magnitude or more, it will last for a decade or longer and the American and international economic system has a high likelihood of collapsing.
At least I think that's your view...but it's kind of hard to tell. Almost all of your posts are simply links to articles with a pessimistic outlook on housing in general or Las Vegas in particular. You rarely actually write anything yourself.
Here are ten of the sixteen threads that you’ve started here:
---Survey ranks Nevada the most dangerous state ---Lots of stolen cars in Vegas? ---Clock is Ticking on Las Vegas' Water Supply ---Las Vegas observations (for haters only!) ---Lady Luck turns on Vegas real estate ---Countrywide tightens lending rules in Vegas ---Las Vegas home prices will "decline the most" ---Home losing value? Just walk away from it ---Flippers Flop As Vegas Housing Market Cools ---Look at these graphs before buying Vegas real estate
Not one of these has more than ten words you’ve personally written. What is it you’re expecting here, Dude? Are we to discuss or debate Las Vegas or LV housing with the “guest writers” you’re bringing us?
Even worse, most of the articles you reference in your posts here are national in scope (there are other forums on City-Data for that – this is a local thread). Too many of the “guest writers” you present to us are biased towards their own agendas, or are completely anonymous bloggers, or simply out of their minds. No matter, if they’ve written something negative about housing or Las Vegas, you want the world to see it!
You never did answer my question about the LA Times article that you said was about: I’ll ask you again…did you read the article? Did you read the paragraph that said "no current residents claim to be victims of foreclosure"?
At least we “morons” are occasionally adding some value to the topic of the Las Vegas housing market. We’re actually investing a bit of time to write down and share our own words and perspectives.
That’s a hell of a lot more than anyone here can say about your contributions, Dude.
Surely you must be olecapt in disquise. Either that or there are a total of 2 people who insist that Las Vegas is prospering and there is no housing problem.
I posted this article because I'm ABSOLUTELY SICK of the moronic thinking I see on this forum, that somehow Vegas exists in a bubble that is insulated from larger nationwide troubles.
Great come back Dude66. But I doubt you will shut up the hopelessly stupid optimists. You can show them aerial photos of this city with a pin stuck into the roof of every house for sale. They can put their curser on each pin and see how long the house was on the market and how much it deprecated in value.
There will be a rather large star above olecapts house and his one clone. Those 2 stars will have an asterisk that will show that they are single oddities where those 2 houses actually continue to go up in value even today. In addition it will show hoards of people sitting in the streets in front of those 2 homes begging, bidding and praying that they list those 2 homes.
We beg of you guys not to list your valuble homes for sale with all your gobs and gobs of equity. Anymore listings added to the already 29,000 active and available might just tip the scales into a buyers market.
Imagine a dream come true market where there are just 9 potential buyers for every 29,000 homes? You Realtors must be laughing all the way to the bank on a daily basis.
Last edited by Marka; 01-02-2008 at 02:16 AM..
Reason: edited quote
Great come back Dude66. But I doubt you will shut up the hopelessly stupid optimists. You can show them aerial photos of this city with a pin stuck into the roof of every house for sale. They can put their curser on each pin and see how long the house was on the market and how much it deprecated in value.
There will be a rather large star above olecapts house and his one clone. Those 2 stars will have an asterisk that will show that they are single oddities where those 2 houses actually continue to go up in value even today. In addition it will show hoards of people sitting in the streets in front of those 2 homes begging, bidding and praying that they list those 2 homes.
We beg of you guys not to list your valuble homes for sale with all your gobs and gobs of equity. Anymore listings added to the already 29,000 active and available might just tip the scales into a buyers market.
Imagine a dream come true market where there are just 9 potential buyers for every 29,000 homes? You Realtors must be laughing all the way to the bank on a daily basis.
To the Sheriff in disquise......say something intelligent or butt out......
There are real people with real lives being completely destroyed by this - good people who were trying to do the right thing by buying a home for their children to grow up in. My wife and I didn't feel we over reached on our home. We put $20,000 down, we tried to do the right things.
But it still blew up in our faces.
Caveat emptor.
~Mike
Mike, your story is a heart-breaking one, and I do feel bad for what you and your family must be going through. And, you're right...behind all the realtor-speak of SFR's, inventory, negative equity, etc, are the real-life housing situations similar to yours.
It's kind of like playing Monopoly, where one has almost no cash, but is about to roll the die to come around that corner where the greens and Boardwalk are fully developed with hotels. You're just praying to get past it all and get to 'GO' where you can collect the next $200 and hopefully hold on.
Except for you, in your (and others) situation...this is no game. I wish you some sort of miracle to help you in your current situation.
Surely you must be olecapt in disquise. Either that or there are a total of 2 people who insist that Las Vegas is prospering and there is no housing problem.
I've got over 300 posts here. Please direct me to one in which I state "there is no housing problem."
The reason I even started posting here was because I was told others were debating an article about me in LV BusinessPress in which I argued that housing was worse than the media was reporting...
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHEPNYC
Las Vegas Realtor Eric Young prides himself on being a numbers guy, and when it when comes to the local housing market, the numbers paint an awful picture.
Moderator cut: [do not repost copyrighted material]
To which, by the way, OleCapt's response was that my assessment as published in the paper was "untrue":
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt
This is really getting boring. You are publishing stuff that is already known to be untrue. The August number from GLVAR are out. Prices are up...
Last edited by Eric Young; 12-29-2007 at 12:48 PM..
Now on to the post that I had wanted to make, before the interruption from the add-nothings (please note the original effort and the original content, all of which is on-topic)...
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF Q4 2007 PRICE ACTIVITY
As many of you know, I track median prices for comparable resale homes in the cities of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson. The criteria I use for inclusion as a comparable home is:
-----Single-Family Detached
-----Built Year = 1995 – 2000
-----SqFt = 1250 – 3000
-----Pool = No
Between 01/01/2004 and 09/30/2007, there were 106,759 existing home sales. Of these, 21,705 – 20.3% - met the criteria for inclusion in my dataset, thus providing me with a large sample size of comparable homes from which to measure quarterly price activity.
In Q1 2004, the Median Price per Square Foot (MPSF) for these homes was $139.
In Q2 2004, the MPSF for these homes was $167.
In Q2 2006, the MPSF for these homes peaked at $191.
In Q3 2007, the MPSF for these homes was $173 – a decline of 9.4% from the 2006 high.
We haven’t closed out the fourth quarter but I expect the Q4 2007 MPSF to show a further decline of 12.1% to $152.
The cumulative decline since the 2006 peak is currently 20.4% (from $191 to $152) with prices now similar to those of March or April, 2004.
Yup - It is now clear that the long rumored decline actually began in mid August and got to rip roaring size in the fourth quarter. What had been a slow gradual decline suddenly accelerated. It appears driven by REPOs and shorts. The non-distressed properties did not move much over September/October but are now tracking the REPOs in rate of decline.
And on top of all this volume continues to decline. I am not sure we will have 800 SFR sales in December which will be a level that will force entry into the archives to find an equivalent month. I don't think in this millenium.
Condo sales have continued to worsen. Price has not yet dropped as radically as the SFRs but the volume is actually dropping harder. Condo conversion simply are not selling.
Where to now? Well it appears clear it is going to come down a good bit more. We are now eating into the 1Q2004 runup. So we may well see 2003 pricing before this ends.
At the present rates though that may not be a long time. If the low volumes hold we are going to see acceleration in the rate of decline. With an ever increasing REPO/Short inventory driven by the price declines we may see a really interesting year.
At this point I would buy nothing other than a very low priced repo. Too much of a loss risk in anythig else. Note that these are competitive. Many are going well over asking price. So we are figthing over the dregs of the market.
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