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you can find the prices at the county websites if you know the addresses.. you will find that 95% of the bank owned homes sell at list or higher.. and if they dont, it is only within a couple thousand of the listing price.. think about it, if joe smo has a house for sale for $400k and he owes the $400k, hes not going to sell the house for less unless it is a short or hes going to put money in himself to get out (doubt it).. and then the bank owned goes for sale across the street for $280k, the bank is not even going to consider lowering it from there, why should they? most of them, countrywide especially, won't even let you put in an offer unless you are preapproved through them.. (you dont have to use them though, i must be the only one in the universe that they have been good to according to all the posters, maybe because i pay my bills on time)... so in my opinion, you are wasting your time lowballing.. as we say in the used car business "it is what it is, if you don't like it, move on"
you can find the prices at the county websites if you know the addresses.. you will find that 95% of the bank owned homes sell at list or higher.. and if they dont, it is only within a couple thousand of the listing price.. think about it, if joe smo has a house for sale for $400k and he owes the $400k, hes not going to sell the house for less unless it is a short or hes going to put money in himself to get out (doubt it).. and then the bank owned goes for sale across the street for $280k, the bank is not even going to consider lowering it from there, why should they? most of them, countrywide especially, won't even let you put in an offer unless you are preapproved through them.. (you dont have to use them though, i must be the only one in the universe that they have been good to according to all the posters, maybe because i pay my bills on time)... so in my opinion, you are wasting your time lowballing.. as we say in the used car business "it is what it is, if you don't like it, move on"
Will this lead to a stalemate? Sellers not willing to lower prices because of their financial situation and buyers not willing to pay listing prices because of the likelihood of the house losing value within the next year or so.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The worst housing financial crisis in decades is only going to get worse, a Merrill Lynch report said Wednesday.
The investment bank forecasted a 15 percent drop in housing prices in 2008 and a further 10 percent drop in 2009, with even more depreciation likely in 2010.
By contrast, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects housing prices to remain flat in 2008. NAR did cut its home price estimate for the current quarter, however, to a 5.3 percent year-over-year decline, which represents the steepest drop in that price measure on record. But NAR sees an uptick in home prices in the last two quarters of 2008.
"Merrill Lynch's figures are way too pessimistic, and they are unprecedented," Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist told CNNMoney.com. "There is so much variation in local housing markets, and we see stable price conditions for 2008."
The current housing crisis and the depreciation in home prices have pummeled the economy, with businesses and consumers cutting back on spending, raising the specter of a recession. "Lower sales and higher inventory for sales are lowering the velocity of transactions," said Fritz Siebel, Director of US Property Derivatives for Tradition Financial Services. "That cannot be a sign of good health for the economy."
But for those who think that the worst is over, Merrill Lynch said that housing prices still remain comparatively high. The brokerage believes that home prices are still far above historical norms when compared to other measures such as rent or GDP. "By our calculations, it will take about a 20 to 30 percent decline in home prices to correct this imbalance," said the report.
Merrill Lynch believes that housing starts will most likely slide another 30 percent by the end of 2008 - a historic low.
The report says that the inventory situation only continues to worsen, as homebuilders are now looking at more than a nine months' supply. "The current supply/demand environment does not favor a swift recovery in the housing market, in our view," according to the report.
Yun agrees that the reduction in housing starts will not bode well for the economy, especially in the homebuilding industry, but he believes that the reduction will soothe the housing market by slowing the glut in inventory. "The reduction in housing starts is not stabilizing the economy, but it will stabilize the market," said Yun.
I agree completely. I saw a house listed for $182 PSF which was probably reasonably priced 2-3 yrs ago. I told the listing agent about houses that had sold in the neighborhood for less than $120 PSF. Then she made a comment about insulting the owners. To which I responded that folks shouldn't be insulted by fair offers because, in my opinion, their house wasn't worth more than $140 PSF.
I seldom have clients telling me what houses are selling for in a tract. It is the most basic of an agents duties to know that. If there is a target tract or tract(s) in mind I know pretty well both the foreclosure line and the non-foreclosure line. For most places in north Summerlin and the NW I know the price lines pretty well by rote.
Note though that there really are two lines and they can be pretty variable by tract. It is really the impact of the foreclosures. As a for instance Sun City Anthem has historically had about a 10 to 15% price premium to Sun City Summerlin. Same houses 5 to 12 years newer. Anthem however is reasonably heavily impacted by foreclosures and Pulte discounting new build. The result is that Anthem is now selling about 5% below Summerlin.
Does not mean there are no discounted foreclosures in Sun City Summerlin. But they are rare and pretty much gone in hours or a couple of days. There are not enough to drive the price point very much.
Advice as to market trend is well within the purview of an RE Agent. If you get bad advice you should seek a new agent. I am cautious...I don't call speculative bursts or bottoms until there is some strong evidence...but I will tell a client that waiting until spring is most likely safe and might save a few bucks. In fact I suggested to a poster looking to buy just now that they might try and stall for a month or two to see where the interest rates end up. I would not recommend at this point waiting for further decline in price as I think we are within a small distance of the bottom and the risk of increase is probably similar to or greater than the risk of decrease.
Projections past the next few months are very difficult. I know that there are roughly 8000 new hotel rooom coming on line this year and rougly 15000 next year. By the normal rules of thumb that is close to 50,000 new jobs in 2008 and 90,000 in 2009. That should make for a robust housing market in Las Vegas. But we could be going into a wide scope recession. Will Las Vegas get through it unscathed? I would be sure there will be some impact. How to balance the relative impact is left for the student.
I certainly would not worry about insulting anyone with an offer. This is simply business. They accept, counter or tell you to KYA. On to the next one. Low balling the banks on the lower priced REPOs is a waste. They are giong for over list. You could do a hundred without so much as a counter.
I seldom have clients telling me what houses are selling for in a tract. It is the most basic of an agents duties to know that. If there is a target tract or tract(s) in mind I know pretty well both the foreclosure line and the non-foreclosure line. For most places in north Summerlin and the NW I know the price lines pretty well by rote.
Note though that there really are two lines and they can be pretty variable by tract. It is really the impact of the foreclosures. As a for instance Sun City Anthem has historically had about a 10 to 15% price premium to Sun City Summerlin. Same houses 5 to 12 years newer. Anthem however is reasonably heavily impacted by foreclosures and Pulte discounting new build. The result is that Anthem is now selling about 5% below Summerlin.
Does not mean there are no discounted foreclosures in Sun City Summerlin. But they are rare and pretty much gone in hours or a couple of days. There are not enough to drive the price point very much.
Advice as to market trend is well within the purview of an RE Agent. If you get bad advice you should seek a new agent. I am cautious...I don't call speculative bursts or bottoms until there is some strong evidence...but I will tell a client that waiting until spring is most likely safe and might save a few bucks. In fact I suggested to a poster looking to buy just now that they might try and stall for a month or two to see where the interest rates end up. I would not recommend at this point waiting for further decline in price as I think we are within a small distance of the bottom and the risk of increase is probably similar to or greater than the risk of decrease.
Projections past the next few months are very difficult. I know that there are roughly 8000 new hotel rooom coming on line this year and rougly 15000 next year. By the normal rules of thumb that is close to 50,000 new jobs in 2008 and 90,000 in 2009. That should make for a robust housing market in Las Vegas. But we could be going into a wide scope recession. Will Las Vegas get through it unscathed? I would be sure there will be some impact. How to balance the relative impact is left for the student.
I certainly would not worry about insulting anyone with an offer. This is simply business. They accept, counter or tell you to KYA. On to the next one. Low balling the banks on the lower priced REPOs is a waste. They are giong for over list. You could do a hundred without so much as a counter.
To olecapt: You know I almost never agree with you but I have publicly complimented you on your smarts. That being said, allow me to ask a question of you from something you mention in your post above because I know you will have the answer. I promise I will agree with it !!
Ok all those new jobs like from City Center and such which by some estimates such as your own will create 50,000 new jobs. You know the vast majority of those jobs are retail which traditionally pay crappy. Even some of the white collar retail is crappy but instead of $8/hr, perhaps the management could brag of $10/hr.
Give us/me your opinions how these working poor will be able to buy a home which is what we are all counting on to spark this horrible housing slump here. You know full well that even a duel income family earning $8-10/hr each can not buy even the cheapest home here in the worst of getto areas. Forget down payments, we all know they have none.
The way I see it is all these new very low paying jobs will be more of a burdon on this city then to help it in any way.
Will this lead to a stalemate? Sellers not willing to lower prices because of their financial situation and buyers not willing to pay listing prices because of the likelihood of the house losing value within the next year or so.
That stalemate is why we have two price lines. One that the banks have established on REPOs and Shorts and one established by owners under no particular pressure to sell. They differ by more than $20 per SF. Over two thirds of the sales are on the higher priced line.
Financially you go with the Bank line. But that line covers less than 10% of the houses for sale. So as long as you are willing to deal with the housing stock in this segment you are fine. Note that this stock covers the range of prices from $500K and down and is mostly pretty new...built between 2004 and 2006. If however you want some specific neighborhood...say Green Valley...you may find that only poor examples are available.
Aliante will have loads of homes. El Dorado, a somewhat similar tract closer to Nellis, will have much fewer. Basically similar neighborhood but with very divergent pricing.
you can find the prices at the county websites if you know the addresses.. you will find that 95% of the bank owned homes sell at list or higher.. and if they dont, it is only within a couple thousand of the listing price.. think about it, if joe smo has a house for sale for $400k and he owes the $400k, hes not going to sell the house for less unless it is a short or hes going to put money in himself to get out (doubt it).. and then the bank owned goes for sale across the street for $280k, the bank is not even going to consider lowering it from there, why should they? most of them, countrywide especially, won't even let you put in an offer unless you are preapproved through them.. (you dont have to use them though, i must be the only one in the universe that they have been good to according to all the posters, maybe because i pay my bills on time)... so in my opinion, you are wasting your time lowballing.. as we say in the used car business "it is what it is, if you don't like it, move on"
Best done by an RE Agent. The Agent has better tools to search the county data base and has much more up to date info. The county data base is at least 3 weeks behind real time.
You can get better data than the county assessor by using the recorder...it is difficult though and time consuming.
I noticed a bank foreclosured house sold for 200k recently: 910 sir winston,henderson,nv, estimated 300k. I remember bank listed it as 250K. How does this happen then?
Quote:
Originally Posted by airics
you can find the prices at the county websites if you know the addresses.. you will find that 95% of the bank owned homes sell at list or higher.. and if they dont, it is only within a couple thousand of the listing price.. think about it, if joe smo has a house for sale for $400k and he owes the $400k, hes not going to sell the house for less unless it is a short or hes going to put money in himself to get out (doubt it).. and then the bank owned goes for sale across the street for $280k, the bank is not even going to consider lowering it from there, why should they? most of them, countrywide especially, won't even let you put in an offer unless you are preapproved through them.. (you dont have to use them though, i must be the only one in the universe that they have been good to according to all the posters, maybe because i pay my bills on time)... so in my opinion, you are wasting your time lowballing.. as we say in the used car business "it is what it is, if you don't like it, move on"
To olecapt: You know I almost never agree with you but I have publicly complimented you on your smarts. That being said, allow me to ask a question of you from something you mention in your post above because I know you will have the answer. I promise I will agree with it !!
Ok all those new jobs like from City Center and such which by some estimates such as your own will create 50,000 new jobs. You know the vast majority of those jobs are retail which traditionally pay crappy. Even some of the white collar retail is crappy but instead of $8/hr, perhaps the management could brag of $10/hr.
Give us/me your opinions how these working poor will be able to buy a home which is what we are all counting on to spark this horrible housing slump here. You know full well that even a duel income family earning $8-10/hr each can not buy even the cheapest home here in the worst of getto areas. Forget down payments, we all know they have none.
The way I see it is all these new very low paying jobs will be more of a burdon on this city then to help it in any way.
Thanks in advance for your opinions/answers.
The direct jobs are reasonably well paid. The hourly strip workers come in two flavors...tipped and non-tipped. The non-tipped do about $12 an hour with full medical. The non-tipped make $9 but often double, triple, quadruple that total. A senior strip bartender makes over $100K. A towel attendant at the Hard Rock makes 9 plus 10 in tips. Even the non-tipped often have access to significant overtime.
It is however clear that the non-tipped need two incomes or other such schemes to buy a home. The tipped often can get in on one and can afford well up market on two. Note that the tip formulas are actually very favorable to the employee.
That covers two of the six new jobs.
The other four will run a wider gamut but will certainly have a couple of low wage jobs. But it will also include the Doctors, Lawyers, Teachers, Cops, Manangers and such to support the population growth. I don't know where that split is...But these add to the strip workers.
The low wage folk then create apartment demand driving that price up and motivating those who can afford it to buy a house.
One of the conundrums in all this is that the hardest hit segment on the sales side appears to be low cost condos. You can't sell a $150K condo to save your soul. The 100K condo conversions don't sell at all...virtually zilch. So one of the interesting things is that the low end buyer is not trying. Some postulate this is do to tightening in the credit market. I don't buy that...it might have cut sales in half but they have gone down a lot more than that...and there is no action...no showings...nobody looking.
I am going to dig around a bit and see if I can find any suggestion as to the wage level of the added workers...but I don't know a source other than the strip workers.
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Merrill Lynch Predicts 30% PRICE DROP!
