[Oneway]

Olecapt,
I am trying to grasp your last reply,

"Most of the gurus who I think get it straight are suggesting the next year with significant appreciation will be 2009. I personally think their crystal ball lacks the range to get there...but I do believe them that nothing much is going to go on for the next 6 months and that any kind of a big runup in 2008 is unlikely. Then again nobody sees the slow decline in prices getting much worse. So those waiting for the big bubble burst should not hold their breath.
"

So based on the text above, when would be your "best time" if you want to buy a house (pretending you are in my situation)? Should i buy at the end of this year or mid 2009. This is $$$$ questions.

I am not a resaler so I think I will leave in the house for more than 5 years unless my job move me.

I will consider your opinion. Thx

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Oneway

Olecapt,
I am trying to grasp your last reply,

"Most of the gurus who I think get it straight are suggesting the next year with significant appreciation will be 2009. I personally think their crystal ball lacks the range to get there...but I do believe them that nothing much is going to go on for the next 6 months and that any kind of a big runup in 2008 is unlikely. Then again nobody sees the slow decline in prices getting much worse. So those waiting for the big bubble burst should not hold their breath.
"

So based on the text above, when would be your "best time" if you want to buy a house (pretending you are in my situation)? Should i buy at the end of this year or mid 2009. This is $$$$ questions.

I am not a resaler so I think I will leave in the house for more than 5 years unless my job move me.

I will consider your opinion. Thx

Unless you find some drop dead gorgeous deal stay out until early spring then decide whether or not to stay out longer.

The other possible reason for jumping in is if it becomes clear interest rates are going up...particularly if they start to go up fast. I don't see that and historically interest rates drop second half over first. But that is the other indicator I would watch. Note that a one point interest rate rise offsets a 15% price drop. So it does not pay to miss a runup.

So watch and wait.

[gulfer]

ELECTION late in 2008. No way interest rates go up before the election. I too am waiting for the right time to buy. I know basically what I want and have been looking for over a year.
I am in the military (21 years now) so is my wife. So we will be semi retired. We watch the incentives, read all the forums, watch the prices, mortgages, etc... I really don't think prices will drop very much at all in the Las Vegas area.
The #1 thing all the 'prognostigators' I feel miss, is that PEOPLE WANT TO LIVE IN VEGAS. You can't say that for a lot of other places in the country. Not Nevada, Vegas. So, while I honestly don't feel the bubble will burst, I feel rates will ease slightly and get your home before the DEMS win the White House.

How does closing before Holloween 2008 sound??

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by gulfer

ELECTION late in 2008. No way interest rates go up before the election. I too am waiting for the right time to buy. I know basically what I want and have been looking for over a year.
I am in the military (21 years now) so is my wife. So we will be semi retired. We watch the incentives, read all the forums, watch the prices, mortgages, etc... I really don't think prices will drop very much at all in the Las Vegas area.
The #1 thing all the 'prognostigators' I feel miss, is that PEOPLE WANT TO LIVE IN VEGAS. You can't say that for a lot of other places in the country. Not Nevada, Vegas. So, while I honestly don't feel the bubble will burst, I feel rates will ease slightly and get your home before the DEMS win the White House.

How does closing before Holloween 2008 sound??

Why decide now? Wait until early spring then look. If interest rates do decide to run up it will likely be in the spring.

[gulfer]

Thanks Olecapt, enjoy reading your posts.
What do you make of Meritage Homes slicing 100K off the price of a 2800 square foot home that was going for 460K? Does that seem crazy. Wife has been calling on it, just seems like even if not great market right now, something like that would be nice to own and go up in value over the next several years. Not looking for it as an investment property, looking at living there. Would probably rent the first two years though before I can get out there full time.
Curious to everyones thoughts? Thank You

[Frankawitz]

I am in the Construction field I do Plaster and Drywall here in Michigan and I am looking to move out to Vegas this fall, With the last two winters here I have had to take out loans to make it thur the winter time and I can't see us making it this winter, I have two little girls I'm helping raise with my girlfriend so we need a place with good schools cause they are 4 and 6 years old. I'm looking for a house that needs work since this is what I do for a living. I want to bring my Old World Plastering to Las Vegas and make some houses out there into works of art with Plaster Crown Mouldings or Cornice Mouldings not the foam stuff HD sells but real Plaster. I have a couple of Realtors looking for 3 bedroom homes for us now. I can't wait to make the move. anyone know of a good place to look for the Fixer Uppers? Thanks. oh if you would like to see some of my work go to url removed

[jfkIII]

Capt...correct me if I'm wrong...but LV is not known for particularly good schools of school environments, is it? That last poster's perception wanting to raise his two girls in good LV schools is wrong, isn't it? Especially in areas that have an abundance of fixer-uppers?

[olecapt]

Las Vegas has a middlish urban school system. It has schools that range from exceptional to dreadful. The suburban ring ranges from adequate to exceptionally good. There are also scattered fine school in the central area...the most interesting perhaps being Hyde Park. Hyde Park is clearly the best middle school in town even though it is located in the central city.

The better high schools are all magnet schools generally not in the best suburban neighborhoods. Therer are a dozen or so adequate but not exceptional high schools that service the suburbs.

Most fixers in Vegas are randomly located. There are the gentrifying neighborhoods of downtown but they are a small part of the fixer population. Other fixers would not be suited to the sort of fixup discussed. High quality plaster in a 1950s concrete block home is probably not the right answer. So I would think he would have to look for the bigger homes in some of the nicer areas where the individual home has gone to the dogs. They were easy to find before the 2004 runup. The flipper craze however ate most of the them.

[jfkIII]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The flipper craze however ate most of the them.

Thanks, Capt...and I thought Flipper was a dolphin...not a shark!

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by jfkIII

Thanks, Capt...and I thought Flipper was a dolphin...not a shark!

Many turned out to be jellyfish...crabby jellyfish at that.