[olecapt]

Originally Posted by JG_Latakia

>>>>You seem determined to find a water crisis in Las Vegas. We don't have one. We in fact have the water to continue to grow for some years yet.<<<<

The only thing that I am “determined” to find is whether it makes sense for me to move back to Las Vegas for the second half of my career and then retirement on a fixed income. A potential water-shortage is a big factor in making that determination.

There is a positive side: The Bureau of Reclamation’s recent study (cf. above) thinks that the Colorado River’s volume of water should remain constant (more or less) for the next 100 years. That is truly good news.

But, there is also a negative side: Las Vegas is in a desert, so the water supply is very limited. For example, there was a 10 year long drought that is ending only now (2011). That could have become a real problem if it had continued. And, in order to prevent that from being a problem in the future, the water authorities are trying to build a 300 mile long, underground aqueduct -- which will be expensive, politically and financially. Meanwhile, the people of Las Vegas waste a lot of water. Also meanwhile, other states (and their voters) are interested in the water of the Colorado River too. Etc.

So, I’m genuinely concerned (a) whether there will be enough water in Las Vegas in the next 20 - 40 years and (b) how expensive it would be. Retirement is only 25 years away for me, and I already know elderly people who used to be professionals but who now must choose between buying food or medicine. I do not want to move someplace only find that I would have to choose between food, medicine ... or water.

All the best,

-- JG

Again the problem in places like Atlanta is vastly worse. And vast areas of TX are in dire straits as their multiple sources of water were all driven by rain. No rain they all dry up.

The drought of interest was not in Las Vegas. It was a lack of snow fall in the Rockie Mountains...Colorado and north.

And the problem in Las Vegas is not local. It is the whole SW. Las Vegas is upstream and gets its water even if Hoover should cease to flow....a very bad and very unlikely outcome. But AZ and souther CA are also large users and would be hard pressed to continue without the Colorado. And of course the main supply of winter vegetables to the entire US goes away.

We are of course driving conservation which is a rational thing to do in the desert. But we are also allowing people to reverse lawn converted to desert landscaping...practically I think as there was no real way to prevent it.

I would think Las Vegas will have to consider some constraints on growth in the 20 to 40 years out range without the pipeline or some other significant solution. Actually if the existing economic trends last much longer it may well be twice that long.

But that is a constraint on growth...not rationing or limiting present resident water use.

[cecnj]

Originally Posted by JG_Latakia

>>>>You seem determined to find a water crisis in Las Vegas. We don't have one. We in fact have the water to continue to grow for some years yet.<<<<

The only thing that I am “determined” to find is whether it makes sense for me to move back to Las Vegas for the second half of my career and then retirement on a fixed income. A potential water-shortage is a big factor in making that determination.

There is a positive side: The Bureau of Reclamation’s recent study (cf. above) thinks that the Colorado River’s volume of water should remain constant (more or less) for the next 100 years. That is truly good news.

But, there is also a negative side: Las Vegas is in a desert, so the water supply is very limited. For example, there was a 10 year long drought that is ending only now (2011). That could have become a real problem if it had continued. And, in order to prevent that from being a problem in the future, the water authorities are trying to build a 300 mile long, underground aqueduct -- which will be expensive, politically and financially. Meanwhile, the people of Las Vegas waste a lot of water. Also meanwhile, other states (and their voters) are interested in the water of the Colorado River too. Etc.

So, I’m genuinely concerned (a) whether there will be enough water in Las Vegas in the next 20 - 40 years and (b) how expensive it would be. Retirement is only 25 years away for me, and I already know elderly people who used to be professionals but who now must choose between buying food or medicine. I do not want to move someplace only find that I would have to choose between food, medicine ... or water.

All the best,

-- JG

I share your concerns re: water but find on these boards many in denial and angry that anyone should seriously raise the issue. Many seem to have conveniently forgotten this is a desert and water is not simply everywhere for the taking. Denial will only work for so long....then I guess it will be "so long"...

[olecapt]

I would think you folk would have noticed that the entire SW quadrant of the US is in fact a desert. That ranges from the Mediterranean desert of southern California to the higer deserts of AZ and NV. It is all desert. And it all uses imported/manipulated water supplies.

Las Vegas exists because it had a substantial water supply which it still does. The natural water here would support a city of 300,000 or so.

But the avaiability of a much larger supply allowed a much bigger city.

The same is true in Phoenix and LA and San Diego.

If you really believe that the southwest is going to dry up and blow away I think you need rest and rehab...it ain't gonna happen.

And LV has a sounder supply than most...being upriver and all that.

[dynimagelv]

I have a water crisis every time I go out.....they don't mix enough Scotch with it.

[lvre411]

Originally Posted by JG_Latakia

Hello LVRE411,

First, thank you for your thoughtful and detailed reply, especially regarding water resources.

I finally got around to checking the links which you shared about the water situation in Las Vegas.

It looks like water levels for Lake Mead have been lowering in the last decade or so (Bureau of Reclamation: Lower Colorado Region), but it also looks like the water level will increase with this winter’s snowfall already beginning (Colorado snowfall a mixed blessing - The Denver Post and Las Vegas ski resort is among the first in country to open - Saturday, Oct. 8, 2011 | 1:23 p.m. - Las Vegas Sun ).

That seems consistent with a Bureau of Reclamation study, published in March of this year, which projects steady water supplies for the Colorado River for the remainder of the 21st century (Bureau of Reclamation ; see especially pages 55 - 62 at http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/docs/...ssessments.pdf). .

However, the uncomfortable reality is that Las Vegas depends on a single source of water (the Colorado River) for 90% of its water. And, as the last decade showed, that single source is also a single point of failure if the weather is bad and a drought results.

To mitigate that, there is a proposal to build a pipeline and to transport large amounts of underground water from eastern Nevada. As Pat Mulroy described it, this would provide diversity to Las Vegas’ water supplies. (Diversity, balance needed for Nevada's future - Sunday, Oct. 9, 2011 | 2:01 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun and Face to Face with Jon Ralston - My News 3 - KSNV, Las Vegas, NV and Water pipeline will be good for both Clark County and the state - Sunday, Oct. 9, 2011 | 2 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun )

Yet, I really have to wonder if the water-pipeline is a viable solution. The pipeline project would help Las Vegas in the short-term, but it might just ruin the ecology and the communities of eastern Nevada and western Utah. (Rural residents oppose water pipeline at hearing - News - ReviewJournal.com and Las Vegas water plan gets strong public opposition | Deseret News).

Moreover, the water pipeline might hurt Las Vegas in the long-term by fostering a false sense of potential future growth. Every city reaches a limit to its size based upon its population and its resources. Perhaps Las Vegas has reached its natural limit? Las Vegas is in a desert. Maybe there is just a natural limit to its size and thus its growth, based upon the limited amount of water there? Perhaps Las Vegas needs to switch from a goal of growing the city to managing and improving the city within its existing size?

All the best,

-- JG
13 October 2011

Thanks... take a look at the historical snow levels for the past 60 years... the past decade (2000 through 2007) was not the first time there was a string of years with lower then average snowfall packs.... and it won't be the last.

Fact of the matter is though... the past couple of years snowfall has been returning back to normal. Perhaps you have not been here long enough... but as recently as (from what I remember) 1989, Water levels hit the overflow tunnels at Lake Mead.

Considering there was a drought for seven years... It's not as doomsday as some people have been led to believe. Nowadays, average snowfall up in the Rockies has an even bigger impact since the ground is already saturated.

Lake Powell (north of Lake Mead) is up 51' this year alone... Lake Mead is up 31' in one year. Those two facts alone should indicate that it's not that hard to fill up when conditions are right.

When the doomsday research came out 3 to 4 years ago giving 50/50 odds that Lake Mead was going to be dry by 2021.... yeah sure thing.... if it never snowed again.

Let's not forget that there is another Lake north of Lake Mead that has 5,685,981,005,696 gallons in it right now.

Future Growth? We really don't have to worry about that right now. Plenty of vacant homes out there and with the homes that are being built... they pretty much have no yards anyways.... certainly none with grass. (Biggest waste of water is Grass.) And all of the vacant homes with no water service are killing off plenty of grass yards...

Somewhere I saw that the water usage was actually less today then it was back in 2000 when you factor in the recapture rate. (Water returned to Lake Mead.)

Conservation of water is far more aggressive today then when I moved here.

I don't think anybody is suggesting that we should not be careful with using our Water Resource carefully.... today's restrictions are far higher then they were in the '90's and will probably stick because I can't say I know anybody complaining about them.

All we are pointing out is that it's not as dire as some people have been led to believe.

[lvre411]

Originally Posted by cecnj

I share your concerns re: water but find on these boards many in denial and angry that anyone should seriously raise the issue. Many seem to have conveniently forgotten this is a desert and water is not simply everywhere for the taking. Denial will only work for so long....then I guess it will be "so long"...

Don't get knowing the facts confused with denial and anger.

For those that do know the facts.... nobody is denying we live in the desert or stating that everybody should go out and use all of the water they want.

By the way.... Water consumption decreased 32 Billion Gallons in 2010 compared to 2002 (according to the SNWA)... throw in the fact that the population grew over 400,000 in that time frame and it should be obvious that many residents now take water conservation seriously.

Well... certainly more seriously then 2000...

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by cecnj

I share your concerns re: water but find on these boards many in denial and angry that anyone should seriously raise the issue. Many seem to have conveniently forgotten this is a desert and water is not simply everywhere for the taking. Denial will only work for so long....then I guess it will be "so long"...

I am quite curious CEC what it is that concerns you. Denial? of what?

Perhaps I can straighten you out a bit on what the actually issues are.

the only big threat to Las Vegas in recent years was an entirely practical problem. Las Vegas gets its water from two intakes in Lake Mead. There was a distinct possibilty a couple of years ago that the upper one might actually be uncovered as the Lake level dropped. The second straw would have continued to work...but it lacked the pumping capability to fully water the city. We would certainly have had to go to no lawn sprinkling and such for a while at least if the first was gone.

A few years further down the line it was possible the second straw could have been uncovered. And that would have been a disaster.

After having seen these possibilites SNWA has added a third straw at roughly the equivalent position of a bathtub drain. With the third straw Las Vegas would get just about the last drop of water out of Lake Mead. So unless it went dry we would be OK.

There were no other short term threats.

Note this system flow 8 or 9 million acre feet each year. We take 0.3 million. If you think about it practically it has to fail to less than 5 percent of normal flow before we would fail to get our share.

It is very likely that actions would be taken way before it gets under 5%.

Now if you have some other issue I would be glad to try to deal with it if you would kindly explain.

[bledsoe3]

Originally Posted by dynimagelv

I have a water crisis every time I go out.....they don't mix enough Scotch with it.

You have to order Scotch and water, hold the water.

[Pilgrim21784]

Originally Posted by bledsoe3

You have to order Scotch and water, hold the water.

A wise observation. Based on available historical records, Scotch will be one's only option. Impressive human development existed in the greater SW areas of the US in earlier periods.

Those civilizations DIED, apparently because their water supply changed. Going forward, it is interesting to observe what current folks there are doing.

Water politics in the West are more fun to watch than most political debates. It is a desert and not likely to change within the timeframe of anyone currently living there.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Pilgrim21784

A wise observation. Based on available historical records, Scotch will be one's only option. Impressive human development existed in the greater SW areas of the US in earlier periods.

Those civilizations died, apparently because their water supply changed.

The Las Vegas Valley had flowing water for thousands of years. Continuously. You need another theory.