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Old 09-26-2012, 12:11 PM
 
2,076 posts, read 4,072,055 times
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The bottom was last summer. Anyone actually buying between then and now, knows it.
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:17 PM
 
3,598 posts, read 4,947,596 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister View Post
It's appallling how self-serving, short-sighted and out-of-context these published reports have become.

Perhaps the protagonists are simply hoping to keep the precarious house of cards intact for another year or two in order to give them ample time to move most of their assets offshore(...?)

In any event, they're certainly not doing the public at large any favors.

Uncertainty everywhere you look yet "Vegas housing is improving"... please feed me more because a steady diet of fairytale reality is about all that is going to save us at this point. Hang on to that delusion, have another rum and coke and silence the voices of reason who attempt to challenge the system of lies. Label them "Le Miserables" and the root of the problem, surely that will fix things.

While were at it, let's grant even MORE tax breaks for the energy companies...

I cannot wait to see what's coming next...

Smart as horse and hung like Einstein.
Gee, it sounds like you don't want to buy a new home after all. Interesting turn of events... again.... and again...
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:59 PM
 
6,385 posts, read 11,880,321 times
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Many houses a year ago were selling for 50-60% of their replacement cost. The going rate is still well below replacement cost and at pretty significant drop in rates from last year. I think the next leg up comes when the regular buyers get back in control. Jobs will always be a concern so it won't come in a tidal wave, but just seeing a bottom passing is giving a lot of buyers much more confidence. I think normal comes without the overbearing presence of investors who are discouraging some potential buyers. The investors will slowly pull back as we get to around $90-95sf for homes. I still see lots of listings in the $80s so let's say another 10% increase should do it.
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Old 09-26-2012, 02:47 PM
 
261 posts, read 422,911 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
I agree that this is being driven by a limited inventory. But I see no particular reason the limited inventory is going away. I wish it would - but I don't get a vote either. And we really don't need the high rate of appreciation we are seeing.
I don't have any idea what the shadow inventory is and whether it will be a big factor. What seems to be the big driver of higher prices is quantitative easing keeping mortgage rates low. (IOW, demand from investors.)

What I think is a pretty good bet is that more inventory will come on the market next year as the banks work their way through the backlog and that QE will eventually end with either the economy coming back or a currency crisis.

In summary, the housing market is hot because of factors that are unlikely to continue. This does not portend a crash. I think it is more likely that LV experiences a long period of stagnant prices. This would be optimal since it would create a better foundation of middle class home ownership than big boom and bust cycles.
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Old 09-26-2012, 05:51 PM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,762,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestieJeff View Post
The bottom was last summer. Anyone actually buying between then and now, knows it.
I have bookmarked this post for future reference.
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Old 09-26-2012, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Henderson
1,245 posts, read 1,827,955 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister View Post
I have bookmarked this post for future reference.
And I have bookmarked THIS post for future reference.
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Old 09-26-2012, 06:35 PM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,762,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
CS is simply wrong. I expect it is something intrinsic in the protocol. By any rational scale Las Vegas single family housing is up year over year and was up in June and July.

The problem likely deals with the treatment of shorts and foreclosures. How do you find "arms length transactions between a able and willing seller and and able and willing buyer" when 80% of transactions have a bank on the selling side?

I agree that this is being driven by a limited inventory. But I see no particular reason the limited inventory is going away. I wish it would - but I don't get a vote either. And we really don't need the high rate of appreciation we are seeing.
It's not wrong. They don't report the not seasonally adjusted data because the housing bubble burst screwed up the cyclical seasonal pattern. They do this because they're not concerned with headline buzz and it is simply MORE accurate.

QUOTE: "The turmoil in the housing market in the last few years has generated unusual movements that are easily mistaken for shifts in the normal seasonal patterns, resulting in larger seasonal adjustments and misleading results."

Bear in mind, dealing with massive statistical anomalies is no easy task.

Last edited by eventusstultorummagister; 09-26-2012 at 06:55 PM..
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Old 09-26-2012, 07:05 PM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,762,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by logline View Post
Gee, it sounds like you don't want to buy a new home after all. Interesting turn of events... again.... and again...
Real estate, once upon a time, was an investment. Now, just a manipulated worthless paper commodity for the speculators to get rich on. Buying, owning a home once meant something special, now it means you're a fool.

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Old 09-26-2012, 07:40 PM
 
12,973 posts, read 15,796,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister View Post
It's not wrong. They don't report the not seasonally adjusted data because the housing bubble burst screwed up the cyclical seasonal pattern. They do this because they're not concerned with headline buzz and it is simply MORE accurate.

QUOTE: "The turmoil in the housing market in the last few years has generated unusual movements that are easily mistaken for shifts in the normal seasonal patterns, resulting in larger seasonal adjustments and misleading results."

Bear in mind, dealing with massive statistical anomalies is no easy task.
Seasonal has nothing to do with the problem.

The Raison d'être for CS is to do a unit by unit normalized price index. That is to derive the change in overall pricing by weighted averaging of a large number of homes where the individual home have changed hands. 1201 Rockingham is sold on February 1, 2000 for $225,000, and is then sold again on July 1, 2006 for $500,000. So that is an entry with into an index calculation providing data for the differential between Feb 1, 200 and and July 1, 2006. Get a whole lot of these. Normalize to their value in 2000 being 100 and you have CS.

The problem is that CS claims to limit its entries to an arms length sale between a rational buyer and seller. So you through out anything weird...like a foreclosure.

But here comes 2009. 90% of the transactions are between a rational buyer and an irrational seller. How did they handle that? Well they can throw out all the tarnished goods. That says they are only tracking traditional sales which has very little to do with where Las Vegas is. Or they can try to allow appropriate percentages for the various categories.

But the fact remains their numbers make no sense. Whether you use GLVAR or the Tax base you still get a sharp increase in price from February 2012 onward. And it is practically impossible to eliminate short sales from the tax base...they don't show. So you have to use the GLVAR numbers or some yet undisclosed algorithm on the Tax data.

So I don't know what it is that Case Shiller is measuring at this point. And Case Shiller is not talking a whole lot about how they are handling it. My suspicion is that they are using the tax data base and ignoring short sales. That says their answer is not correct. I think that because the only way you can get a decrease over the past year is by mixing the traditionals, which are up sharply, and the shorts, which are down a good bit.

If so Case Shiller is actually misleading everybody. And they are not maintaining the standard claimed.
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:04 PM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,762,963 times
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Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve's latest mortgage bond purchases so far are helping profit margins at lenders including Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase more than homebuyers and property owners looking to refinance.

"Since the Fed's Sept. 13 announcement that it would buy $40 billion more securities per month, the rates offered for new 30-year loans have fallen by just 0.11 percentage point, compared with a drop of more than 0.6 percentage point for yields on the bonds into which the loans get packaged, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bankrate.com. The gap between the two, which typically signals increasing lender revenue when it widens, has reached a record of more than 1.6 percentage point."
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