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Old 09-25-2012, 11:47 AM
 
3,598 posts, read 4,929,467 times
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Case-Shiller numbers are a 3-month running average of housing prices for the top 20 cities in the U.S. They are regarded as the most reliable and least biased numbers (especially compared to others like the National Assoc. of Realtors).

The data shows that we have had continued improvement in house prices in Las Vegas:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09...Big+Picture%29

Are "bottom callers" finally correct? I sure hope so.
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Old 09-25-2012, 04:01 PM
 
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I don't think Case Shiller works in the Las Vegas and similar environments.

While the model is intellectually pleasing it does not appear to handle foreclosures and shorts well.

I think the yoy numbers in Las Vegas went positive in the beginning of the second quarter and are now approaching 20%. There is a lag in CS but it is simply missing what is actually happening.

I have never seen a write up on CS treatment of foreclosures and shorts. The government similar index has gone to doing a special set of indexes without any distressed properties. Unfortunately Las Vegas is not one of the cities involved.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:06 PM
 
Location: Salt Lake City/Las Vegas
1,596 posts, read 2,795,150 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by logline View Post
Are "bottom callers" finally correct? I sure hope so.
I think we're seeing real progress. Thank God.

Bill
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Old 09-25-2012, 07:12 PM
 
Location: Sunrise
10,865 posts, read 16,921,631 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UTES View Post
I think we're seeing real progress. Thank God.
There's still an AWFUL lot of shadow inventory out there, being held by the banks. If they were to release it all at once, it would plunge us into another recession.

The solution is jobs -- particularly construction. And that isn't happening until the rest of the country improves to the point where, "Let's go to Las Vegas and lose a ton of money" becomes an option again for the majority of Americans.
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Old 09-25-2012, 07:28 PM
 
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If the banks hold any substantial inventory it is that which is held by those subject to foreclosure but not yet foreclosed. The bank owned places are a public record and not that large a number.

Places not foreclosed are not particularly scary as the banks can't process more than 3,000 a month and would take 6 month or a year to get to that number.

The banks continue to sell homes at prices below reasonable comps but appear to be tightening. We have experienced at least one case where a bank refused to come down after a large set of bids below their list. Curious as to what they do next. The price is not terribly out of range and would likely have sold if by a private seller...but everybody expects the bank to settle for less.
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Old 09-25-2012, 07:59 PM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,749,060 times
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When does QE4 begin?
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Old 09-25-2012, 08:01 PM
 
12,973 posts, read 15,718,456 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister View Post
Beginning Jan 1st, a 3.8% tax on profits from home sales begins, remember?
Nonsense. It is a capital gains tax which virtually nobody gets.
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Old 09-25-2012, 09:30 PM
 
Location: Toledo, OH
1,725 posts, read 3,447,813 times
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Isn't there a $500,000 net gain on a sale for those homes that would be dinged with that tax? Could that be the Capital Gains 'magic number' as well? Thought I read that somewhere a while back.
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Old 09-26-2012, 01:00 AM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,749,060 times
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Classic dead cat bounce...
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Old 09-26-2012, 01:02 AM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,749,060 times
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Fewer homes means prices go up...
this is not reflective of a market "bottom".
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