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Old 03-11-2008, 12:23 AM
 
Location: Imaginary Figment
11,449 posts, read 14,419,069 times
Reputation: 4777

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Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
30%.



The real deal though is the REPOs and they will not be around long if the market volume rises much. In fact as a percentage of sales they are decreasing already.
With 2-3 more years of ARMS to reset, you will continue to see short sales and repos for a while, driving the prices down along with the builders.
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Old 03-11-2008, 12:38 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,064,258 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by SLCPUNK View Post
With 2-3 more years of ARMS to reset, you will continue to see short sales and repos for a while, driving the prices down along with the builders.

Actually it has never been all of the REPOs only some. And it is getting more and more competitive. They list a REPO at a very good price and sell it for 5 or 10% more.

The problem was they would not buy. Now people are buying.
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Old 03-11-2008, 01:35 AM
 
149 posts, read 346,312 times
Reputation: 72
Default Activity has definitely picked up in the past month

Most of the properties I've been following are under contract. A hearty start to the spring season. Mortgage rates are all over the place though, sometimes moving 50bp a day.

Olecapt, what's the makeup of the buyers you've been seeing? Investors, first-purchasers, downsizers, transplants, etc?

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Actually it has never been all of the REPOs only some. And it is getting more and more competitive. They list a REPO at a very good price and sell it for 5 or 10% more.

The problem was they would not buy. Now people are buying.
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Old 03-11-2008, 04:42 PM
jpk
 
Location: Redmond, WA / Henderson, NV
531 posts, read 1,856,708 times
Reputation: 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheriff View Post
How did you get a 40% discount to the selling price? Contradiction in terms. None the less the median price today is $249k---you bought for $149???
Huh? Do you actually think every individual sale is an "average" or "median" sale? There are deals to be had out there. My house never sold for $249 previously.

Sorry you misunderstood what I wrote. I bought the house here in 2008 at a 43% discount to what it SOLD for when built brand NEW in 2006 just 18 months ago. You will see my sale on the NEXT month report you like to quote and say "look another sign prices are falling!". I say "Yep, and I bought at that low price." That particular home price isn't getting much lower because it's now heavily discounted to 2006 (>40%) and has fully corrected.

My opinion is that on some homes the price correction has already happened and you won't see many quality homes available at these low prices in a year. Already right now I do not see the quality of homes at the low prices I was seeing just a few months ago. Those deals have been gobbled up by folks like me and that says to me that selling prices (not asking prices) have probably bottomed.

I did not and do not make the claim that prices are going up anytime soon. I said give it a few years. But I do feel the best appreciation will be seen by getting deals from desperate sellers right now. If you wait until prices start moving up, then you are just buying high and selling higher. I'm in the buy low camp.
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Old 03-11-2008, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
120 posts, read 389,580 times
Reputation: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpk View Post
Huh? Do you actually think every individual sale is an "average" or "median" sale? There are deals to be had out there. My house never sold for $249 previously.

Sorry you misunderstood what I wrote. I bought the house here in 2008 at a 43% discount to what it SOLD for when built brand NEW in 2006 just 18 months ago. You will see my sale on the NEXT month report you like to quote and say "look another sign prices are falling!". I say "Yep, and I bought at that low price." That particular home price isn't getting much lower because it's now heavily discounted to 2006 (>40%) and has fully corrected.

My opinion is that on some homes the price correction has already happened and you won't see many quality homes available at these low prices in a year. Already right now I do not see the quality of homes at the low prices I was seeing just a few months ago. Those deals have been gobbled up by folks like me and that says to me that selling prices (not asking prices) have probably bottomed.

I did not and do not make the claim that prices are going up anytime soon. I said give it a few years. But I do feel the best appreciation will be seen by getting deals from desperate sellers right now. If you wait until prices start moving up, then you are just buying high and selling higher. I'm in the buy low camp.
Agreed - the smart investors are investing now.. actually, the bottom is here, and passing by quickly. The smart people have been buying now, Nov 07 through March 08. I believe numbers will show, that may be the actual bottom. You will see a loosening in lending, buyers will be back, as can be seen today - the Federal Reserve said it plans to pump $200 billion into the financial markets to help ease the strain from the credit crisis. And election year always shows loosening in lending.

Buy low camp - you got it! The smart ones are already buying and in the game. You just have to buy smart --- there are many new cracker box homes with no upgrades in the burbs on tiny 2,000 sq. ft. dirt lots, with backyards that are like 15 x 15 that won't do well. Smart investing means not only buying when everyone else is panicing, taking advantage of foreclosures and distressed sales now, and not worrying if it is the actual bottom, but also buying the right properties as well.

Buy low camp - nice!!
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Old 03-12-2008, 10:30 PM
 
149 posts, read 346,312 times
Reputation: 72
Default LVRJ: Single-family home sales inch up

Inventory rose too.

ReviewJournal.com - Business - REAL ESTATE: Single-family home sales inch up
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Old 03-12-2008, 11:10 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,064,258 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by bumpercar View Post
Inventory actually went down if you consider the SFRs not under contract...

For practical purposes it is flat.

Sales inched up is not true..Up like 12%
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Old 03-12-2008, 11:37 PM
 
Location: Toledo, OH
1,725 posts, read 3,449,069 times
Reputation: 1277
Wouldn't you think that with Spring here and Summer right around the corner we'll begin to see more houses on the market driving up units available vs the slower selling therefore keeping the percentages about the same as last fall??
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Old 03-12-2008, 11:50 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,064,258 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by gulfer View Post
Wouldn't you think that with Spring here and Summer right around the corner we'll begin to see more houses on the market driving up units available vs the slower selling therefore keeping the percentages about the same as last fall??
Actually they are coming on to the market pretty fast but the sales are also rising pretty fast so a standoff. Lots are being withdrawn as listings expire and people who don't need to sell are going to "wait a year" mode. We also have a four or five thousand block of short on the market that are going no where. So The available inventory is actually smaller than it appears.
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Old 03-13-2008, 12:13 AM
 
Location: Imaginary Figment
11,449 posts, read 14,419,069 times
Reputation: 4777
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Actually it has never been all of the REPOs only some. And it is getting more and more competitive. They list a REPO at a very good price and sell it for 5 or 10% more.

The problem was they would not buy. Now people are buying.
Like I said, it's a combination of things driving prices down, including but not limited to foreclosures, shortsales, new home builders etc.

Are you trying to sell me on a bidding war for REPOs? I'm not buying it (pun intended.)
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