[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Really?So virtually everything under $150K has either multiple bids or more than one offer? You understand that "more than one offer" means multiple bids? The median REO sale is well below $150K. So when you say virtually everything below $150K has multiple offers, by extrapolation you have said most REO sales are multiple bids. Why are you trying to backpedal now? Does virtually everything under $150K have multiple bids or not?There's no strawman needed. This statement is demonstratably wrong - If there's inadequate supply to meet the demand, prices will not, and do not, continue down.

That reflects experience. It is anecdotal. And it reflects those that get bid on. There are many that don't.

I am in no way backpedaling. I am describing the market based on having made more than 100 offers this year.

While you may not like reality that is what it is...

Prices can perfectly well go down in an institutional controlled market regardless of the demand. And that is what is happening.

But not much longer. They do not have the required supply to maintain the present situation.

Just watch the blog chart change.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by drinkme

I am looking at stuff under $100k and can tell you that EVERYTHING has multiple offers ABOVE retail. Either that or I am being lied to by everyone I talked to.

Hire Tony S as a consultant. He has it all figured out.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

That reflects experience. It is anecdotal. And it reflects those that get bid on. There are many that don't.

I am in no way backpedaling. I am describing the market based on having made more than 100 offers this year.

While you may not like reality that is what it is...

What version of reality are we talking about today? Yours seems to be in a state of flux. One day you make a statement that virtually everything under $150K has multiple offers, then later claim you made no such statement. It seems you can't decide. It's good to see you hold firm on your position of the day, whichever that one might be.

Prices can perfectly well go down in an institutional controlled market regardless of the demand. And that is what is happening.

But not much longer. They do not have the required supply to maintain the present situation.

You really need to crack open an Econ text.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by drinkme

I am looking at stuff under $100k and can tell you that EVERYTHING has multiple offers ABOVE retail. Either that or I am being lied to by everyone I talked to.

drinkme, apparently I need to recant my position on the laws of supply and demand. It's come to my attention that the Vegas RE market is controlled by an institution that has managed to repeal those basic economic principles. As it turns out, in Vegas, even when demand exceeds supply, prices continue to drop. That's only a temporary condition however. You see, the institution is beginning to run low on inventory. Soon, demand will outstrip the institution's dwindling supply and prices will start to go up again. What's that? I said earlier that prices continue to drop even when demand exceeds supply? No I didn't.

[rpachigo]

Originally Posted by drinkme

I am looking at stuff under $100k and can tell you that EVERYTHING has multiple offers ABOVE retail. Either that or I am being lied to by everyone I talked to.

You are being lied to.

[rpachigo]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

drinkme, apparently I need to recant my position on the laws of supply and demand. It's come to my attention that the Vegas RE market is controlled by an institution that has managed to repeal those basic economic principles. As it turns out, in Vegas, even when demand exceeds supply, prices continue to drop. That's only a temporary condition however. You see, the institution is beginning to run low on inventory. Soon, demand will outstrip the institution's dwindling supply and prices will start to go up again. What's that? I said earlier that prices continue to drop even when demand exceeds supply? No I didn't.

That's hilarious. I think our realtor has a split personality.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

drinkme, apparently I need to recant my position on the laws of supply and demand. It's come to my attention that the Vegas RE market is controlled by an institution that has managed to repeal those basic economic principles. As it turns out, in Vegas, even when demand exceeds supply, prices continue to drop. That's only a temporary condition however. You see, the institution is beginning to run low on inventory. Soon, demand will outstrip the institution's dwindling supply and prices will start to go up again. What's that? I said earlier that prices continue to drop even when demand exceeds supply? No I didn't.

Get it right. Where did I say the price goes up? I said the existing process cannot be maintained without more inventory.

One outcome might well be that they obtain more inventory...there is lots of people saying that is coming. And that could be a nice outcome...particularly if they can hold the inventory roughly steady. Than we might actually see price stability after a while. Though if they simply launch large slugs of new REOs the price continues down and the volume continues up.

Another might be to have prices go up and sales vastly decrease. That is the scenario where they can't produce more inventory and sell out of what they have. The percentage of REOs drops as does overall sales and the average and median go up.

At the moment it appears they are increasing the number of REOs coming into the system but not by enough to stabilize the inventory. At this point though we can see only to mid month. Let's see what happens in the second half of May. The rate as of mid May would provide about 1800 per month which is still well less than sales but up from the 1200 or so in April.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Get it right. Where did I say the price goes up? I said the existing process cannot be maintained without more inventory.

That's your worse case scenario, remember?

Originally Posted by olecapt

Actually price could easily snap....in fact it is almost my worse case scenario. We run out of REOs period. Nada ...None...What happens next?

Tell us. What happens next? Something's got to give? It's going to be interesting? Am I close?

BTW, does virtually everything below $150K have multiple bids or not? Can we assume that was unfounded, or have you decided that's your position?

[horseplayer]

I've been very skeptical of the "multiple offer" ghosts and cheerleaders for quite some time. I was also waiting to hear what Soprano said about his recent experience. I think looking at how long it has been on the market will tell you.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

That's your worse case scenario, remember?Tell us. What happens next? Something's got to give? It's going to be interesting? Am I close?

BTW, does virtually everything below $150K have multiple bids or not? Can we assume that was unfounded, or have you decided that's your position?

Let me clarify it for you. In the last 40 or 50 REO offers I have made on homes below $150K I don't remember one that was not a multiple offer or at least claimed to be....and I don't think they lie very often as it is uncomfortable to have someone refuse to play and then not sell it. I have also lost around 10 in a row with a young couple where every bid we have made was over list. I don't want to put too much weight on them however as they are SFR at around $50,000.

We listed a nice short condo at $55K about a week ago and had three cash offers at or above list in 72 hours. And it is a short.

I would think it is about as competitive as the feeding frenzy in the second quarter of 2004.