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Actually FOD I would think that Madoff proves my case. It was the sophisticated investors who proved incredibly stupid. Are you one of those.
Actually, if you look at the list of investors with Madoff the majority were NOT sophisticated investors. Rather they were referred to Mr. Madoff and only paid attention to the supposed return on investment reports they were given. They never did their own due diligence, which is what I recommend, nor did they ever really understand what someone else, who held THEIR monies, was doing. Please re read what I have noted and that is to LEARN the business, UNDERSTAND the business and never let your self fall prey due to but UN informed.
You talk only in generalities. We had another poster on here wearing the mantle of the knowledgable investor. He said enough to let us check. He was no where near as good as he wrote. He has since been quite careful in what he says.
I Wear NO mantle. I am giving advice from a place of experience. No one knows who really makes money on these sites unless you actually know the writer. I claim I have made a lot of money and I am retiring at age 54. The veracity of that statement is meaningless. It is the information I am giving that might be worth thinking about. I lay no claim to trying to wash the unwashed masses only that I hope to keep at least a few folks from losing their hard earned monies or at least be in a position to make informed decisions. That should scare the heck out of many Agents/Brokers who are given to fits of rhetoric without real substance.
You were invited to show the quotes. Even the one that has previously been cited has no buy recommendation. It merely projected that, if the present trend, continued, the market was turning around. The trend did not continue and the market did not turn around due to the impact of the lender sucide.
So FOD your posts contain opinion but no facts. And the readers should understand that.
Wow, this coming from a supposed expert has stated has NO SKIN in the game. I state I have and continue to be a REAL Investor. You can look at my previous posts and see the veracity of my statements. I claim I am jumping in as I write this but again, these are the words of an unknown.
Again, I do not set myself up as an expert as you have been doing rather I have given a perspective perhaps a few have not looked into.
See you in a year...when you will likely claim to have had advanced knowledge of however it comes out. But this post will be here won't it?
However, since you asked, here is one of the very first statements you made after the post you showed. You just kept getting better from this point on. The following was dated 3 -3 -08 and is from page 3 of this thread. There is so much more on page 3 and you just kept getting more ridiculous as the thread went on.
olecapt
Saepe errans, num quans hesitans befriend
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
8,387 posts, read 5,851,202 times
Blog Entries: 9
Reputation: 1065
Quote:
Originally Posted by bumpercar then you're implying that a meltdown hasn't occurred yet, so pointing to ongoing construction and saying it's evidence we're not in a meltdown is like saying that salt is evidence of salt. The presence of cranes means a boom has occurred but indicates nothing about present conditions and even less about the future, other than the fact that we'll soon have a pretty building standing where dirt once stood.
There has been no meltdown at this point. There has been a substantial adjustment in the price of real estate but not nearly enough to overcome the 2004 runup.
What has occurred is that sales volume has gone up and prices increased a little. Tens of billions of dollars of building is continuing with the hiring attending there to about to occur.
It is not a situation that would obviously presage a local economic problem.
I believe you might have missed the above just a bit and your advise just kept getting worse and worse.
I have no doubt Tony Soprano has done a great job posting you previous comments about the bottom being here and it is time to jump in over the entire period of this thread. WE both have seen them. Anyone is free to look over the last year and see the truth in either of our statements. It is easy to do. Perhaps it would behoove you to do the same. It is not my place to go back and quote you as my intent is not to use any one Real Estate Agent to make my point. There are so many here and on other sites with horrible experiences listening to the rhetoric none of us need to quote any single individual. The proof is in the Trillion dollars of value the Real Estate industry has lost in the last few years. Oh Wait, I cannot claim that as the Case Schiller does not reflect that statistic. Bummer.
For me I probably am done replying to this B.S. Enough has been said on both sides. We both have made our points. Good bad or indifferent folks will agree or disagree. However my popularity rating on this site has taken a huge leap since I began posting again.
Go figure.
Last edited by fishordie; 06-20-2009 at 06:18 PM..
Be glad to respond to all that as soon as you put it in some comprehensible format.
I have no idea what you were attempting but you failed. It provides no clear cut delineation of who said what.
Translate it into English and I will deal with it.
The only comprehendible piece is a response to Bumpercar which says...
Quote:
There has been no meltdown at this point. There has been a substantial adjustment in the price of real estate but not nearly enough to overcome the 2004 runup.
What has occurred is that sales volume has gone up and prices increased a little. Tens of billions of dollars of building is continuing with the hiring attending there to about to occur.
It is not a situation that would obviously presage a local economic problem.
Exactly what has this got to do with a recommendation to buy?
If you wish to debate the fiasco that has occurred and its roots I would be glad to oblige. That however has little to do with the baseless charges by various incompetent and malicious individuals that I advised people to buy during the peak after the runup.
FOD is not arguing with NAR. FOD is lying repeatedly about olecapt. Don't try to broaden it to all Realtors. Your are dealing with me and not some abrstract collective.
Now if you wish to withdraw those stupid and completely untrue allegations I will be glad to discuss with you how we got here.
In the meantime I await those numerous posts where I advised those many people to buy during the 2005,2006, 2007 and 2008 eras. If you can't provide those than apologize and slink away.
A doomer investor. What more can be said.
Ohh and I would also point out that you agreed to go away for a year a a few posts back. Lied about that too.
What the hell do you think " Don't know how this is all going to work out" or "hazard a guess" mean?
Apparently, it means that the underlying premise of your long time assertion that the bottom is in, is based on little more than guesswork. That's fine I suppose, as long as the reader is aware that you're guessing, and have been guessing for months and months.
Quote:
I said the market was turning in a good direction. Which it was. Then the bottom fell out. I will freely admit I missed the coming of the lender suicide. So did everyone else.
Completely untrue. You didn't see it coming. That's become your convenient excuse for being so absolutely wrong. "It was unforeseeable."
You have a demonstrated lack of ability to look at a set of current market conditions and accurately forecast how those conditions might affect the market going forward. Any time someone expresses the opinion that the housing market may be headed lower or that there is likely to be more bad news, you're amongst the first to tell them how and why their wrong. The irony of course is that it's been you who has been wrong for months and months.
The post that FOD cut & pasted above was just another example. The discussion began when someone posted an article that suggested the US banking system was headed towards a precipice, driven by falling housing prices and defaulting loans. Your response -
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt
Sorry Real Estate Remains Local.
Could we be heading into a global recession/depression? I would think it possible but a low probability.
How'd that work out? We're currently amidst a global recession and the US banking system teetered on the brink of solvency until bailed out by the Federal Reserve.
Just a few posts later another posters suggest that you're implying there has been no meltdown. Your response -
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt
There has been no meltdown at this point. There has been a substantial adjustment in the price of real estate but not nearly enough to overcome the 2004 runup.
Here we are 16 months later and where do prices sit now? 1999 - 2001 levels.
Wayne Gretzky, commenting on his success, is quoted as saying, "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." You show very little ability to anticipate where the puck is going.
Last edited by tony soprano; 06-21-2009 at 04:56 AM..
Apparently, it means that the underlying premise of your long time assertion that the bottom is in, is based on little more than guesswork. That's fine I suppose, as long as the reader is aware that you're guessing, and have been guessing for months and months. Completely untrue. You didn't see it coming. That's become your convenient excuse for being so absolutely wrong. "It was unforeseeable."
You have a demonstrated lack of ability to look at a set of current market conditions and accurately forecast how those conditions might affect the market going forward. Any time someone expresses the opinion that the housing market may be headed lower or that there is likely to be more bad news, you're amongst the first to tell them how and why their wrong. The irony of course is that it's been you who has been wrong for months and months.
The post that FOD cut & pasted above was just another example. The discussion began when someone posted an article that suggested the US banking system was headed towards a precipice, driven by falling housing prices and defaulting loans. Your response -How'd that work out? We're currently amidst a global recession and the US banking system teetered on the brink of solvency until bailed out by the Federal Reserve.
Just a few posts later another posters suggest that you're implying there has been no meltdown. Your response - Here we are 16 months later and where do prices sit now? 1999 - 2001 levels.
Wayne Gretzky, commenting on his success, is quoted as saying, "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." You show very little ability to anticipate where the puck is going.
Where is the buy recommednaton Tony? Post it.
You cannot. So you continue to prattle on about missing the lender suicide. Get it straight. I freely admit I missed that one...and to the best of my knowledge so did everyone else.
Now put up or shut up. Where is the buy recommendaton?
I am doing reasonably well at the moment. I have been pointing out that we were going to run out of inventory on REOs. Guess what? We are running out of REO inventory. And price appears to be stabilizing.
Again something bad may happen and throw it all up in the air again. I have no crystal ball to forecast various calamities. But looks like this one is right on, See...
"If you want a real buy, the time is now." "Time is quickly running out." "We've seen the worst." When shown to be absolutely wrong, the refrain becomes, "show me where I said to buy." Maybe you're better suited for a career in politics vs. dispensing real-estate advice.
Quote:
You cannot. So you continue to prattle on about missing the lender suicide. Get it straight. I freely admit I missed that one...and to the best of my knowledge so did everyone else.
It's very true that you missed it, but not everyone did. This thread is chock full of examples of people suggesting why things were going to get worse before better, and you telling them why they were wrong. It was you that was wrong on just about everything; the global recession, the housing meltdown, the bottom of the market, and on and on.
Quote:
I am doing reasonably well at the moment. I have been pointing out that we were going to run out of inventory on REOs. Guess what? We are running out of REO inventory. And price appears to be stabilizing.
You said prices were stabilizing over 14 months ago. What makes this call any different than the last? You're using the same exact data you had at your disposal last time and coming to the exact same conclusion. At least you're consistent.
Quote:
Again something bad may happen and throw it all up in the air again. I have no crystal ball to forecast various calamities. But looks like this one is right on, See...
Yes, then you'll be right back on the board telling everyone how it was unforeseeable and how everyone else missed it as well.
"If you want a real buy, the time is now." "Time is quickly running out." "We've seen the worst." When shown to be absolutely wrong, the refrain becomes, "show me where I said to buy." Maybe you're better suited for a career in politics vs. dispensing real-estate advice.It's very true that you missed it, but not everyone did. This thread is chock full of examples of people suggesting why things were going to get worse before better, and you telling them why they were wrong. It was you that was wrong on just about everything; the global recession, the housing meltdown, the bottom of the market, and on and on.
You said prices were stabilizing over 14 months ago. What makes this call any different than the last? You're using the same exact data you had at your disposal last time and coming to the exact same conclusion. At least you're consistent. Yes, then you'll be right back on the board telling everyone how it was unforeseeable and how everyone else missed it as well.
Still trying. Poured through everything I wrote and could not find a single buy recommendation until this last few months.
I said we were running out of REOs around March. Said we are in the bottom a month or so again. That is wrong? We are not running out of REOs? It is not the bottom?
Stand up and be counted Tony. I called a bottom. Not so? Tell us.
And I also continue to say it is a good time to buy carefully...whether it is the bottom or not. You agree? disagree?
Comeon lets hear your views...stand up and be counted.
Still trying. Poured through everything I wrote and could not find a single buy recommendation until this last few months.
More spin and damage control. It's very easy to find your cheerleading posts month after month as the housing market unraveled. Often in response to the people that correctly pointed out that things were going to get worse. "Real estate remains local", "Present trends can't continue", "We've seen the worse of it.", yada, yada, yada.
Now, you seek shelter behind, "show me where I gave a recommendation to buy." Clearly wrong in the post below, you emphasize it wasn't a recommendation to buy because you never explicitly say, "go buy a house."
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt over 14 months ago
Volume is up well over 20% from last month so it is now a virtual certainty that sales in April will be up 5 or 10% over last year. Been a long time since that happened. Inventory is clearly dropping. Pending continue to climb strongly.
Don't know how this is all going to work out but the market is changing and real fast. I will hazard a guess that if you want a real buy the timing is now or pretty soon. Nothing like a price increase or even stability with a significant year over year volume increase to start the up cycle.
Fast forward to today, and now you say you've only recently made a recommendation to buy. You go on to to link the following post as proof -
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt
No but there are always some people who need to buy. And generally they take no great risk in doing so. If you are selling and buying in the same market it mostly washes.
My advice to first home buyers during much of the period was rent. Build up your down payment and wait this out a bit at least. Now is the time they were waiting for.
What's missing? The same thing that was missing in the quoted post that preceded it, an explicit statement to go buy a house.
According to you, this is clearly not a recommendation to buy -"I will hazard a guess that if you want a real buy the timing is now or pretty soon."
Yet, this is clearly a buy recommendation -"Build up your down payment and wait this out a bit at least. Now is the time they were waiting for."
Nice spin. A thing of beauty. Do you think people are unable to see through that? I think they can.
Quote:
I said we were running out of REOs around March. Said we are in the bottom a month or so again. That is wrong? We are not running out of REOs? It is not the bottom?
Yes, you also said we were in the bottom over 14 months ago. Please reference your quoted post provided above. If you want to be taken seriously, don't you think you should offer some analysis as to why this time will be different? You're referencing the same sales data you had back then. Why would anyone think your forecast would be any different today? Apparently, it doesn't matter what data you have, it always tells you we're at the bottom.
Quote:
And I also continue to say it is a good time to buy carefully...whether it is the bottom or not. You agree? disagree?
This we have a measure of agreement on. I've got skin in the game now as I closed escrow in May. However, this was not a bottom play. For me, it was more about portfolio diversification and an inflation hedge. I agree that in some instances the Cap rates are such that it still can be a compelling time to buy, even if there is more downside to come.
Quote:
Comeon lets hear your views...stand up and be counted.
Not that anyone cares, but I'm pretty sure I'm already on the record. Watch the unemployment numbers. If the employment numbers don't improve, there's more pain to come. The housing recovery will be prolonged and muted. There's going to be plenty of time to buy. Patience will be rewarded. Don't listen to cheerleading realtors that show little ability to anticipate where the puck is going.
I for one would like to continue to see FOD's and Soprano's postings. They are entirely more knowledgeable of the Vegas market than you know who realtor.
More spin and damage control. It's very easy to find your cheerleading posts month after month as the housing market unraveled. Often in response to the people that correctly pointed out that things were going to get worse. "Real estate remains local", "Present trends can't continue", "We've seen the worse of it.", yada, yada, yada.
Now, you seek shelter behind, "show me where I gave a recommendation to buy." Clearly wrong in the post below, you emphasize it wasn't a recommendation to buy because you never explicitly say, "go buy a house."
Fast forward to today, and now you say you've only recently made a recommendation to buy. You go on to to link the following post as proof -
What's missing? The same thing that was missing in the quoted post that preceded it, an explicit statement to go buy a house.
According to you, this is clearly not a recommendation to buy -"I will hazard a guess that if you want a real buy the timing is now or pretty soon."
Yet, this is clearly a buy recommendation -"Build up your down payment and wait this out a bit at least. Now is the time they were waiting for."
Nice spin. A thing of beauty. Do you think people are unable to see through that? I think they can.Yes, you also said we were in the bottom over 14 months ago. Please reference your quoted post provided above. If you want to be taken seriously, don't you think you should offer some analysis as to why this time will be different? You're referencing the same sales data you had back then. Why would anyone think your forecast would be any different today? Apparently, it doesn't matter what data you have, it always tells you we're at the bottom. This we have a measure of agreement on. I've got skin in the game now as I closed escrow in May. However, this was not a bottom play. For me, it was more about portfolio diversification and an inflation hedge. I agree that in some instances the Cap rates are such that it still can be a compelling time to buy, even if there is more downside to come. Not that anyone cares, but I'm pretty sure I'm already on the record. Watch the unemployment numbers. If the employment numbers don't improve, there's more pain to come. The housing recovery will be prolonged and muted. There's going to be plenty of time to buy. Patience will be rewarded. Don't listen to cheerleading realtors that show little ability to anticipate where the puck is going.
So we agree that it is time for a careful buy.
And you are now on record as projecting a prolonged and muted recover. That would I think imply some years yet of low pricing with small, if any, price increase. Is that about your view?
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