[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Well two things. It looks to be as if the price is continuing to drop slowly...and August looks like it is going down further.

The other interesting thing is that trustee sales did surge in the second half of July. Looks to me like the average is now running along at 140 per business day which is likely sufficient to hold or increase the REO inventory.

Ever since your missed call that May would show a price increase over April, things just haven't been the same here. Well, let me be the first to say that I have really missed the weekly assertions that REO inventory was running out. And imagine my surprise when just today, in this thread, I've read of another two buyers who also managed to pay under list. Who'd have thought?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Ever since your missed call that May would show a price increase over April, things just haven't been the same here. Well, let me be the first to say that I have really missed the weekly assertions that REO inventory was running out. And imagine my surprise when just today, in this thread, I've read of another two buyers who also managed to pay under list. Who'd have thought?

Well having missed on four half million or so deals in the last month I am certainly not advocating bidding low. All were more than 10% over list by the way.

And clearly REO inventory has gone no where but down over the last six months. Present increases are not sufficient to drive anything. So we sit in the doldrums...huge volumes, low prices and nothing sensible happening.

Anyone who thinks any of this is rational market behavior is simply out of their mind.

Interesting times.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Well having missed on four half million or so deals in the last month I am certainly not advocating bidding low. All were more than 10% over list by the way.

And clearly REO inventory has gone no where but down over the last six months. Present increases are not sufficient to drive anything. So we sit in the doldrums...huge volumes, low prices and nothing sensible happening.

Anyone who thinks any of this is rational market behavior is simply out of their mind.

Interesting times.

It certainly wasn't rational market behavior on the way up, there's no real reason to expect rational market behavior on the way down.

Something's got to give?

[RCCCB]

A home came on the market earlier in the week that I spotted at 6am in the morning. My agent was going to take me to see it at 11am, but by 10am there were already 18 bids with one double the listing price.

Crazy times,my realtor was told there was 6000 homes to be released in June by the banks and they are still waiting.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

In any event, when I first looked at the property the list price was $399K. Given my discussion with the listing agent, I'm reasonably confident that an offer of 10% less than list would have closed that deal (with the right FICO score and down payment). That would have put the purchase price at ~$360K. At that time I was still trying to decide whether I wanted to place a large down on a more expensive property and finance the balance, or adjust my price point downwards so I could pay cash.

Ultimately, I decided to pay cash for a less expensive place, but I continued to keep an eye on #913067. About 4-5 weeks after I looked at it, the list had been lowered to $379K, IIRC. It sat there for another 4-6 weeks before the list was lowered again to ~$355K, where it finally went under contract. So who got the better deal, the person who got it for 10% off of list back in May, or the person who had to pay $5K over list in July? The answer of course is they got it for the same price but one guy gets to say he bought at 10% off list. BTW, I don't know what that property ultimately sold at, I'm just using it as an example. It too, could very well have went for under the $355K list.

I just did my bi-weekly check on #913067 and it appears to have fallen out of contract. Current list is $345K.

[RCCCB]

Banks appear to be holding their foreclosures right now, but with more defaults coming soon I don't see that being sustained for very long.
I don't think the banks can rent them very well either.

[gvc8]

it just boils down to supply/demand..econ 101. during the peak real estate selling season where demand is higher than average, withhold inventory to maintain pricing and possibly elicit multiple bids to maximize profit or in today's market climate..minimize loan loss.

[007 license to sell]

I was at a real-estate market meeting and the speaker said that there is between 10,000 to 15,000 bank owned properties that the banks are sitting on that the banks will be releasing in stages to try to keep market prices sustainable. The speaker also said that there is about 100,000 home owners in Las Vegas and the surrounding area that are in danger of going into foreclosure so that could change how the banks release properties into the market.

Also I saw on one of the local channels a investor was being interviewed because his company was purchasing 600 properties. There is allot of bidding going on but it's the cash investors that are winning. And until there is more primary owned homes sold in this market won't stabilize, this is reminiscent of the housing boom only going the other way. These are different times and if your going to purchase a home do it to live in not as a investment.

[airics]

um you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that.....

[olecapt]

The lenders have about 7,000 homes that are not in the MLS. That is well less than the had in January.

Some part of this is stuff that is stuck...title problems and such. Some has been leased - a small numberr.

On the SFRs the banks have about 2000 on the MLS and arppear stable there. They are acquiring via foreclosure about as many as they sell each month. See my blog chart.

This is public record stuff. There is no mystery lender inventory in some repository in the sky.