[Swigchow]

How can rising unemployment not be an anchor on Las Vegas? However, ultimately there can be no recovery until tourism and convention business improves. I believe that the national economy is now rebounding. Tourism is improving. Las Vegas should turn the first quarter of 2010, possibly the fourth quarter of this year. The question is if people can hang onto their house until then. There is so much local pessimism that people are missing the bigger picture. People outside of Las Vegas are seeing this as a once in a generation buying opportunity.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by Swigchow

I believe that the national economy is now rebounding.

How in the world are you comming to that conclusion?

[RCCCB]

Originally Posted by Swigchow

How can rising unemployment not be an anchor on Las Vegas? However, ultimately there can be no recovery until tourism and convention business improves. I believe that the national economy is now rebounding. Tourism is improving. Las Vegas should turn the first quarter of 2010, possibly the fourth quarter of this year. The question is if people can hang onto their house until then. There is so much local pessimism that people are missing the bigger picture. People outside of Las Vegas are seeing this as a once in a generation buying opportunity.

Nothing is really rebounding at all. You have huge numbers of home owners not paying their mortgage.
The President in his wisdom decided to rebound the country by borrowing tens of thousands on each of our backs for two day make-work and government union jobs.
Economist are talking at least two more recession years at least (IF LUCKY) and many expect a full on Depression from all the non-stimulous stimulous spending.

The economy and RE will stay in the crapper longer than it would have without all this extra Obama stimulous.

[Swigchow]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

How in the world are you comming to that conclusion?

Following trends, check out economicindicators.gov.

Durable good orders +1.3%, up 5 of past 6 months
Shipment orders +2.0%
Inventories -0.9% down 7 consecutive months - this is good
Private construction +.1%
Public construction -.7% where is all the stimuli?
Advance monthly sales retail trade and food -0.1% last month, and down yoy -8.3%
Personal income +.1%
Building permits -1.8%
Housing starts -0.7% last months, -26.4% yoy

Gross Domestic Product 1st Qtr -6.4%
2nd Qtr -1.8%
most economist are predicting GDP going positive in the 4th qtr or possibly even the 3rd qtr this year

Are all the numbers great? Hardly, but compared to 6 months and 12 months ago, these numbers are improving. The economy is turning.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

None of this means much without knowing the employment status of the 414 people who received NODs. Virtually 100% of Vegas homes purchased in 2005, 2006, and 2007 have seen their prices fall. Compare that to the 7.5% Vegas foreclosure rate. That is not a strong correlation. There are a great many more homes that have seen price reductions and not foreclosed than those that have. I'm not saying that price reductions haven't contributed to the foreclosure rate, I am saying that obviously there must be other contributing factors in place. Contrary to your position, I believe unemployment is definitely one of them.

Why do lyou insist on making up positions for me? Where did I say unemployment is not a factor? Quote me directly but don't try and paraphrase my positions...you are virtually always wrong.

Swigchow says...
How can rising unemployment not be an anchor on Las Vegas? However, ultimately there can be no recovery until tourism and convention business improves. I believe that the national economy is now rebounding. Tourism is improving. Las Vegas should turn the first quarter of 2010, possibly the fourth quarter of this year. The question is if people can hang onto their house until then. There is so much local pessimism that people are missing the bigger picture. People outside of Las Vegas are seeing this as a once in a generation buying opportunity.

Look at Detroit guys. That is what hapens when unemployment is killing. Low volumes. Large foreclosure inventory. Prices down from the peak.

In Las Vegas 66% of homes approaching foreclosure were last sold in 2005,2006 or 2007. And those represent only 27% of the homes in Las Vegas. This same clustering of the foreclosures homes shows in any of the mortgage statistics.

Or say it the other way. Alll the purchase years other than 2005,6,7 constitute 73% of the homes yet only 33% of those going to foreclosure.

Does this prove that unemploymetn has no impact? Of course not. What it says is there are some really big forces heavily driven by the purchase years 2005,6,7 that are overriding the impact of unemployment. I would think it pretty obvious that it is the depth of the underwater that drives these purchase year homes into foreclosure.

So yes unemployment is having an impact...but it is not driving this market. Other factors are having much bigger impact.

I expect the housing market to remain robust and eventually trend upward. The deals are simply too good to pass up. Eventually things will trend toward nomrmalcy but no time soon. We have a long term supply of cheap foreclosures and we have an army of people ready to buy them.

If unemplyment starts trending downward it will certainly help restore a more normal mode. But I can't see that until next year. So we may well see a robust housing market even with the same or increased unemployment.

Interesting Times

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt less than 3 months ago

Everything continues to indicate that we are going to starve REOs...there simply are not enough coming to meet the demand. The presence of more conventional loan foreclosures later might prolong the length of time REOs are important to the market...but it does not neccessarily change the rate at which they occur.

Originally Posted by olcapt less than 2 hours ago

I expect the housing market to remain robust and eventually trend upward. The deals are simply too good to pass up. Eventually things will trend toward nomrmalcy but no time soon. We have a long term supply of cheap foreclosures and we have an army of people ready to buy them.

Does anyone really believe that you have any idea what the Vegas housing market is going to do? One would have better success consulting an astrologer. Your accuracy rates somewhere between Miss Cleo and The Great Karnak.

People who were going to walk away from their homes because they were underwater have had three years to do so. If prices are stabilizing as you suggest, why do the defaults continue? Someone forecloses on their home this month because they're $75k underwater, yet stayed put six months ago when they were $73.5K underwater? There's obviously another catalyst in play. Unemployment has been driving the foreclosure market for at least the last quarter, if not longer.

[op123]

The realtor-speaking makes politicians blush. There needs to be a law to hold people accountable for relator-speaking.

[olecapt]

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt less than 3 months ago
Everything continues to indicate that we are going to starve REOs...there simply are not enough coming to meet the demand. The presence of more conventional loan foreclosures later might prolong the length of time REOs are important to the market...but it does not neccessarily change the rate at which they occur.

Comeon. The REOs are obviously starved all to hell and gone. We still sit there with less than a month of inventory. In fact REO sales are slowly decreasing primarlily do to the lack of supply. The rate of REO arrival has remained costant for some months now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by olcapt less than 2 hours ago
I expect the housing market to remain robust and eventually trend upward. The deals are simply too good to pass up. Eventually things will trend toward nomrmalcy but no time soon. We have a long term supply of cheap foreclosures and we have an army of people ready to buy them.

You have problems with an all time record market being referred to as robust?

What would you consider robust? You believe the market is going to stop selling at very high levels? Why?

Does anyone really believe that you have any idea what the Vegas housing market is going to do? One would have better success consulting an astrologer. Your accuracy rates somewhere between Miss Cleo and The Great Karnak.

You would very well have better luck with an astrologer as you don't appear to listen well. You have such problems with existing data...particularly if it does not meet your preconceptions.

People who were going to walk away from their homes because they were underwater have had three years to do so. If prices are stabilizing as you suggest, why do the defaults continue? Someone forecloses on their home this month because they're $75k underwater, yet stayed put six months ago when they were $73.5K underwater? There's obviously another catalyst in play. Unemployment has been driving the foreclosure market for at least the last quarter, if not longer.

The number posted dealt with people who are going to go to foreclosure next quarter or next year...though they are the same distribution as the present REOs. Thus we are seeing that foreclosures coming still feature the hot years. It appears that it is being deeply underwater that is driving the process not simply unemployment.

I too find it not intuitive...but it appears to be fact.

As I point out on my blog the REOs entering the system appear quite consistent at least over the last two months. I personally suspect what we are seeing is simply the capability of the system. I am curious as to how long these are actually taking and whether it is changing so I think I will try and do some analysis of the time from missed payment to set of sale date. This data comes in odd blocks driven by when legal docs are filed. Makes the best stuff unavailable.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by op123

The realtor-speaking makes politicians blush. There needs to be a law to hold people accountable for relator-speaking.

And we really should license people to read these things. Many simply can't handle the information flow.

[op123]

Originally Posted by olecapt

And we really should license people to read these things. Many simply can't handle the information flow.

We got one nerve here!!!