[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Yes, prices in March, 2009 were lower than the previous March, and this March they'll be lower yet. That's just fascinating.

In fact, this March, prices will be at least -40% lower than when you bet someone a steak dinner that prices would be higher. Interesting? You be the judge. Hilarious? Most definitely.

Called the coming change in March and there it was and then projected that it was the bottom.

Don't you wish you knew enough to do that Tony?

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Called the coming change in March and there it was and then projected that it was the bottom.

Guess early. Guess often. Sooner or later you'll get something that approximates the bottom.

Don't you wish you knew enough to do that Tony?

I knew enough not to listen to you back in 2008. I hope everyone else did too or they are way underwater.

[fishordie]

Originally Posted by olecapt

doesn't work fod.

The problem is that any transfer of ownership shows in the tax data base. As soon as it is recorded it shows up. All the banks and the feds took possession of only 1241 sfrs in january and 1094 in february. These numbers are roughly consistent with what ends up on the market.

The only way shadow inventory can exist is to be still in the hands of the owner...not in the hands of the bank.

I suppose fanny and freddie could be unloading the mortgages on to some others....but the houses would still have to appear on the recorder data base to gain possession. You can't do anything to a house until you gain possession.

historically you would be correct but this new program is coming into play even as i write this. The large investors will become holding companies and through a procedure the sale will occur from freddy and fannie but the actual title change will not occur until the properties are flipped. I have explained the reasoning and it makes total sense.

Much of this economic bust has very much been the result of real estate defaults and over inflated property values. Freddy and fanny were over loaded with bad loans and properties. Their original decisions to dump some fairly large amounts of reo's slapped them right in the face as they watched their already bad portfolios go from bad to worse based on these reo's skewing the market even further downward.

This new methodology will correct that flaw in their
thinking and though only a few of us are aware it is coming into existence you can be assured it is and it will.

Think about it. We know vegas has a ton of either non performing properties or vacant properties held by the banks. At some point these banks will be required to get those assets, presently on the books at over inflated values, off the books. Should this be done in the old method our economy will take another turn for the worse as banks will actually have to note the true asset value of their portfolios are. If that occurs they will not have the leverage amounts required by federal banking requirements to issue loans. Thus, once again the banks will begin to fail.

The government has a huge stake in this scenario not occurring again. Clearly a new methodology to remove low priced assets from the books was required and here it is. It is actually quite brilliant even if it might **** of some industry folks.

All you need to do is use your own words to wonder where all that reo inventory is and went. If you look at the number and values of property owners who took advantage of the permanent reorganization of their loans you will realize it is a mere pitance of the non performing portfolios these banks maintain.

You are welcome to deny my statements as we all have opinons but every once in a while you might want to think out of the box. It really pays off for many of us and your clients might just get the benifit of your newly aquired knowledge.

You are welcome to review all of my predicitions and statements on this board and will find i have not been wrong yet. Regardless, i put my money where my mouth is and was retired or i guess semi retired before i was 55. Realators have had a habit of telling me i could not aquire properties in the manner i have all these years but i am retired and they are either out of business or struggling in this economy. I am not here to change the mind of olecapt, rather i am hear to provide insight to those who are curious and want some real explanations of what you also believe are non explainable occurances from someone who has nothing to gain by providing my points of view.

I am not here to make anyone blindly follow my advice rather, as i have noted often on this sight, i hope folks will question what is going on, learn as much as possible and avoid losing their hard earned monies by listening to so called expert folks who might have less knowledge than they. I continue to say, listen to everyone and make your own informed decisions. If i am able to help just a few folks than i have succeeded in what i am trying to accomplish and i get paid nothing for it.

Fod

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by fishordie

historically you would be correct but this new program is coming into play even as i write this. The large investors will become holding companies and through a procedure the sale will occur from freddy and fannie but the actual title change will not occur until the properties are flipped. I have explained the reasoning and it makes total sense.

Much of this economic bust has very much been the result of real estate defaults and over inflated property values. Freddy and fanny were over loaded with bad loans and properties. Their original decisions to dump some fairly large amounts of reo's slapped them right in the face as they watched their already bad portfolios go from bad to worse based on these reo's skewing the market even further downward.

This new methodology will correct that flaw in their
thinking and though only a few of us are aware it is coming into existence you can be assured it is and it will.

Think about it. We know vegas has a ton of either non performing properties or vacant properties held by the banks. At some point these banks will be required to get those assets, presently on the books at over inflated values, off the books. Should this be done in the old method our economy will take another turn for the worse as banks will actually have to note the true asset value of their portfolios are. If that occurs they will not have the leverage amounts required by federal banking requirements to issue loans. Thus, once again the banks will begin to fail.

The government has a huge stake in this scenario not occurring again. Clearly a new methodology to remove low priced assets from the books was required and here it is. It is actually quite brilliant even if it might **** of some industry folks.

All you need to do is use your own words to wonder where all that reo inventory is and went. If you look at the number and values of property owners who took advantage of the permanent reorganization of their loans you will realize it is a mere pitance of the non performing portfolios these banks maintain.

You are welcome to deny my statements as we all have opinons but every once in a while you might want to think out of the box. It really pays off for many of us and your clients might just get the benifit of your newly aquired knowledge.

You are welcome to review all of my predicitions and statements on this board and will find i have not been wrong yet. Regardless, i put my money where my mouth is and was retired or i guess semi retired before i was 55. Realators have had a habit of telling me i could not aquire properties in the manner i have all these years but i am retired and they are either out of business or struggling in this economy. I am not here to change the mind of olecapt, rather i am hear to provide insight to those who are curious and want some real explanations of what you also believe are non explainable occurances from someone who has nothing to gain by providing my points of view.

I am not here to make anyone blindly follow my advice rather, as i have noted often on this sight, i hope folks will question what is going on, learn as much as possible and avoid losing their hard earned monies by listening to so called expert folks who might have less knowledge than they. I continue to say, listen to everyone and make your own informed decisions. If i am able to help just a few folks than i have succeeded in what i am trying to accomplish and i get paid nothing for it.

Fod

FOD - Who owns the house? Fannie and Freddie together don't hold 2000 SFRs. And they turn much of that every month. So who owns the houses? There were only about 1100 homes turned over to anybody last month via a trustee sale or Fannie/Freddie acquisition.

the problem with your thesis is that there is no inventory to play games with. And you have to have houses to play games with houses.

We know who owns the homes FOD. And it is not Freddie/Fannie.

[fishordie]

Originally Posted by olecapt

fod - who owns the house? Fannie and freddie together don't hold 2000 sfrs. And they turn much of that every month. So who owns the houses? There were only about 1100 homes turned over to anybody last month via a trustee sale or fannie/freddie acquisition.

The problem with your thesis is that there is no inventory to play games with. And you have to have houses to play games with houses.

We know who owns the homes fod. And it is not freddie/fannie.

wow olecapt.,

i was trying not to make this about you but maaaan you really are a piece of work. You really believe fanny and freddy only hold or control about 2000 foreclosures??? You also believe 2000 foreclosures caused the financial catastrophe and near national collapse of the economic system??? I will not even bother responding to such statements as it is clear you have your ideas and i have mine. As far as olecapt. I will not be getting in a war of words with you as i am sure in your little retirement community you have some following. Good for you. But in the real world your numbers and your answers are just not making sense. None the less, best of luck to you and your clients. I am sure you have been giving them nothing but the best and most knowledgeable advice possible. Oh, and by the way those clients of yours who purchased in the last two years based on your prognostications i am sure are very, very happy with the results. I and they thank you for your clear wisdom and insight.

As for the folks who are pming or emailing me. I am happy to give out what information i have. Just remember, i am no better at foreseeing the future than any other investor or agent so take what information i give and use it as a tool only to make the best possible decisions for you. Real estate agents, as have been clearly shown on this site, have no more ability to determine market trends than you or i and in most cases are so tied into their industry biased
data they cannot see the real picture. Knowledge is king so long live the king. I only know what i do has worked and continues to work for me.

Best of luck to all. As i said, i am done with responding to olecapt until i decide it is appropriate to do so. Tony has been showing him the errors of his ways based on the transcripts derived from previous claims of his knowldege of the future of the industry yet the blind still cannot see. What a shame.

Best of luck to all.

Fod

[Gomezy3k]

Man tons of houses available and still not able to find one. I think the stupid investors are causing the problem of buying up everything and then over charging when they resell. The Appraised value is always much lower than what the sell wants so the sale goes south since the VA will only loan the Appraised value... I checked with Hud and FHA and they are pretty much out since they want a down payment and since I am on disability I am limited to what I can put down.


Most Troubled Real Estate Markets - Yahoo! Real Estate

In Las Vegas the 90-day delinquency rate is 21.7%. In Miami it's 28.8%. Those two sunny cities were the twin epicenters of the condo boom, so maybe their comeuppance was to be expected.

3. Las Vegas, Nev.
Delinquency rate: 21.7%
Comment: Maybe building all those high-rise condo buildings off the strip wasn't such a great bet after all. Mortgages in foreclosure or converted to REO here are 10.2% of the total.

[fishordie]

Gomez,

Have you checked the home path loans through your or other banks??

Best of luck and dont give up.

FOD

[Gomezy3k]

Originally Posted by fishordie

Gomez,

Have you checked the home path loans through your or other banks??

Best of luck and dont give up.

FOD

I am beginning to think I need to. I wanted to go with the VA since most other home loans want a fairly large down payment, which being on disability, is hard for me to come up with.

[SHEPNYC]

Reducing principal by 10% to 30% on underwater loans and the unemployed.

It's a great country!

Check the link below to the details:

FACTBOX-US plan to shrink mortgages, keep jobless in homes | Reuters

[MomMom]

Originally Posted by SHEPNYC

Reducing principal by 10% to 30% on underwater loans and the unemployed.

It's a great country!

Check the link below to the details:

FACTBOX-US plan to shrink mortgages, keep jobless in homes | Reuters

You should post this in the national forum, mortgage threads.