[tony soprano]

As a former trader, maybe you can appreciate this - I have a very good friend who is a sell-side analyst at GS. A track record of calls like OC's would put him out on his butt in very short order. No amount of tap dancing and obfuscation, like that employed by OC, would matter. He wouldn't be given a platform to lose client's money. Since our resident pundit can't be shown the door, I intend to let people know what a load of BS it is when he represents his market calls as having been accurate.

Originally Posted by jbov

I love seeing Olecapt fight when backed into a corner. He will not go down with the ship!

Lots of people are falsely optimistic during a bubble (including really smart ones). That is the whole point of a bubble - the majority of people are wrong.

I worked as an equity trader in the stock market during the first internet bubble 1998-2000 and there were lots of bullish traders who were geniuses one year and donkeys the next as they tried to buy every market "bottom". There were also contrarians shorting the markets who got wiped out by going short too soon.

One broker in particular I remember had huge short positions in a number of internet high flyers for months and was forced to buy the bulk of them back due to a margin call literally a week before the markets started heading south for good. He was right all along but he was still broken by the market action. I felt bad for him.

It is very difficult to predict market tops and bottoms. Lets give the OleCapt a break.

I, for one, would like to continue to hear his predictions. I will just make sure to balance them with other opposing ideas.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The change in interest rate from 5% to 8% will lower the amount you can borrow per dollar of payment by about 27%.

An increase in interest rates from 5 to 8% will not significantly change price. The famed run up in interest rates in the 70s/80s when the rates pealked over 15% was accompanied by a price drop of less than 10%.

I love how you toss statements out there that argue against a point no one made(ie, building a strawman).

But since you did it, I guess I can too.

Originally Posted by JohnG72

Obv with cash buyers, mostly investors, running the market at the moment, realtors have a huge invested bias in perpetuating the myth of Vegas real estate as investment.

This here ^^^^^^^^^^ renders your opinion as near worthless.

[jbov]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

As a former trader, maybe you can appreciate this - I have a very good friend who is a sell-side analyst at GS. A track record of calls like OC's would put him out on his butt in very short order. No amount of tap dancing and obfuscation, like that employed by OC, would matter. He wouldn't be given a platform to lose client's money. Since our resident pundit can't be shown the door, I intend to let people know what a load of BS it is when he represents his market calls as having been accurate.

I agree that his attempts to rewrite his track record of predictions are pretty weak. The definition of "bottom" can only be squeezed so thin. It seems pretty clear he predicted it numerous times.

But in every field, and in every bubble, there are thousands of "experts" who get everything wrong. Yes, very often it is because their judgement is clouded with self interest. But that doesn't make it malevolent.

Perhaps your friend would lose his job if he had a poor track record, but in reality there are plenty of unrepentant cheerleaders from all the recent bubbles (internet, housing, etc) who still have jobs and are still considered "experts".

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

From its inception, this thread has chronicled the median housing price. The median dropped another 12% from your April '09 bottom call.

Hey, if the given data indicates you're wrong, let's find some other data to replace it!! Please peddle your fraud elsewhere.

Faced with irrefutable evidence of the bottom you simply create a new rule so that it does not apply? Garbage. Unworthy even of you.

Case Shiller uses a modified average and olecapt uses the GLVAR average and always has. The average is subject to noise from large transactions. The median however is very sensitive to mix. It bounces all over the place as you change the components such as REOs. I have a blog post that compares the GLVAR average and the CS data for those who care.

That chart by the way has been around a while.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

I love how you toss statements out there that argue against a point no one made(ie, building a strawman).

But since you did it, I guess I can too.



This here ^^^^^^^^^^ renders your opinion as near worthless.

You should try reading FODs stuff. Filled with your kind of misinformation. And spoke exactly to the point presented.

Your RE Agent point is also quite daft. RE Agent care mostly about velocity and very little about price. if you could stop and think about it you would realize it is in fact much easier to sell two 200K houses than one 400K house.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by jbov

I agree that his attempts to rewrite his track record of predictions are pretty weak. The definition of "bottom" can only be squeezed so thin. It seems pretty clear he predicted it numerous times.

But in every field, and in every bubble, there are thousands of "experts" who get everything wrong. Yes, very often it is because their judgement is clouded with self interest. But that doesn't make it malevolent.

Perhaps your friend would lose his job if he had a poor track record, but in reality there are plenty of unrepentant cheerleaders from all the recent bubbles (internet, housing, etc) who still have jobs and are still considered "experts".

Olecapt rewrites nothing. It is all there to see. What he does do is refute idiots who try to bend the obvious to something else.

Tony is trying to refute an old chart that is quite accurate and shows the bottom quite clearly.

Now back to your squat and praying that your LL does not evict you.

[jbov]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Olecapt rewrites nothing. It is all there to see. What he does do is refute idiots who try to bend the obvious to something else.

Tony is trying to refute an old chart that is quite accurate and shows the bottom quite clearly.

Now back to your squat and praying that your LL does not evict you.

Olecapt! Buddy!

Why are you throwing me under the bus? I was defending you... saying it is okay to make wrong predictions.

I don't want to get into a technical discussion of what constitutes a bottom and what is the proper metric or time frame to use. I doubt the people who bought a house at your 2008 "bottom" feel like they timed the market perfectly.

The Las Vegas Sun just ran an article stating that housing prices are the lowest they have been in 20 years.

I guess this is a new bottom. I am calling it right now**

**bottom calls only valid for 6 month periods

[jbov]

Oh and my squat has proven to be a gold mine...

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Faced with irrefutable evidence of the bottom you simply create a new rule so that it does not apply? Garbage. Unworthy even of you.

Rubbish. You've supplied nothing of the sort. I on the other hand hang you with links to your own failed projections. Anyone who thinks that April of 2009 was the bottom for Las Vegas housing prices is delusional. The numbers don't lie, but you do.

Case Shiller uses a modified average and olecapt uses the GLVAR average and always has. The average is subject to noise from large transactions. The median however is very sensitive to mix. It bounces all over the place as you change the components such as REOs. I have a blog post that compares the GLVAR average and the CS data for those who care.

More rubbish. The Case Shiller index tracks average price change, not average price. I've had to explain that to you before. This thread has always used median housing prices as the benchmark. Fact - the median housing price fell another 12% from your last failed bottom call.

Two articles, both published today, discussing the newest GLVAR numbers. Both cite median housing price, neither mention average. Like I said before, if the data proves you wrong, look for other data.

Las Vegas Sun

Home sales show slight rebound in February - Business - ReviewJournal.com

No one's buying your snake oil.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Your RE Agent point is also quite daft. RE Agent care mostly about velocity and very little about price. if you could stop and think about it you would realize it is in fact much easier to sell two 200K houses than one 400K house.

LOL where did you get this idea^^^^^^^^^

LOL yet another strawman. BEYOND RIDICULOUS!!!!! I never said one word about you having an interest in promoting higher RE prices in Vegas.

Actually what I said is that you had a vested interest in promoting Vegas as a place that is good for people to invest their money in real estate. As support for that, I pointed out that over half of current Vegas RE transactions are in cash, almost all of which are investors.

In fact, I'm pretty much positive thats what the news article that led to this discussion was all about.

But of course you can continue to deflect, throw up decoys, and deny whats already occured. Thats what you're good at, isn't it?