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Old 03-20-2011, 10:46 AM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,444,516 times
Reputation: 493

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swigchow View Post
Sometimes when there is a mob, one feels sorry for the victim.
Really? I'll tell you who I feel sorry for - I feel sorry for the people who were told back in 2006 that there was no housing bubble, the people who were told that it was unlikely the nation was headed for a recession but if it occurred Vegas would be amongst the first cities to recover, the people who were told in 2008 that REOs were running out and that prices would be heading up soon, the people were told that housing prices would be higher in 2010 than 2008, and on, and on. I feel sorry for anyone that acted on bad information from a self styled expert who now find themselves in trouble. To me, those are the victims.
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Old 03-20-2011, 05:22 PM
 
91 posts, read 174,809 times
Reputation: 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Really? I'll tell you who I feel sorry for - I feel sorry for the people who were told back in 2006 that there was no housing bubble, the people who were told that it was unlikely the nation was headed for a recession but if it occurred Vegas would be amongst the first cities to recover, the people who were told in 2008 that REOs were running out and that prices would be heading up soon, the people were told that housing prices would be higher in 2010 than 2008, and on, and on. I feel sorry for anyone that acted on bad information from a self styled expert who now find themselves in trouble. To me, those are the victims.

Well put my friend.

No need to feel sorry for me (bought in 2006, told all the lies moving forward), because I am a young and this was a good thing for me to learn at a young age...

that people suck.

The people that I feel sorry for are those that have families and put their dreams into a home or area, etc AND for those that saved all their lives, retired, and bought their dream home, moved to Vegas, and got screwed.

Its a terrible feeling to have, that feeling that you just can't trust others. But, that is just the way it is these days, people don't have integrity. Then again, maybe that has always been the case since the beginning.
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Old 03-20-2011, 06:06 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,127,294 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Really? I'll tell you who I feel sorry for - I feel sorry for the people who were told back in 2006 that there was no housing bubble, the people who were told that it was unlikely the nation was headed for a recession but if it occurred Vegas would be amongst the first cities to recover, the people who were told in 2008 that REOs were running out and that prices would be heading up soon, the people were told that housing prices would be higher in 2010 than 2008, and on, and on. I feel sorry for anyone that acted on bad information from a self styled expert who now find themselves in trouble. To me, those are the victims.
Yes people from 2004 to 2008 were very unlucky. And you of course believe that all those who made money in those years off these poor victims should be made to give it back right? You hold that they should be forced to regurgitate their ill gotten gains and return them? Sure you do.

Your writings continue to display emotion with no intelligence. You rant and rave about things you do not begin to understand. You still appear unable to deal with the simple difference betweeen a mean and a median. The simplest of statistical math eludes you.

Your writings do show a considerable capability to venom and bile. But little to understanding and thought.

You continue to convert what should be an interesting discussion into a pile of manure.

Your views shine darkness...never light.
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Old 03-20-2011, 06:41 PM
 
31 posts, read 46,797 times
Reputation: 18
A quick back story...I am an Australian who is interested in the LV market for a one-off, long term (20 to 25 years), investment. There are several reasons/benefits as to why this would be a good investment for me.

When I started researching, I came across this forum, and it has been a great source of knowledge for me. Whether it be from individual postings, or links to all the various articles, it all helps make me a more informed investor, compared to if I hadn't found and followed this forum. So firstly, thanks to you all.

The bottom argument is getting old, but to me, it is more from the sheer number of attacks and count attacks side of things (which after the first dozen or so - didn't produce anything new), not the who is right, who is wrong side of things. Having said, that I am the first to admit that I am ignorant in US investing, BUT.... the ongoing bottom argument, has raised a question for me.

When is a bottom a bottom?

Generally in finance in Australia, we are in a recession if there is 3 or more quarters of negative growth. Do any of you know if there is an official definition of what a bottom is in Real Estate terms? I mean, when the US economy picks up and house values rise, at some point in time, the bottom will be called. Then let's say, X number of years down the track there is Depression (touch wood), and house values drop to lower than the current/near-future bottom, this would be a new bottom wouldn't it. You wouldn't say that the previous Y number of years of positive growth were just a blip. Surely a cycle can have only a certain number of ups or downs before it is then referred to as its own bottom (or top - as mentioned with the 2006 high). Over time, values should always increase, but there will be times where there are some negative growth periods, but eventually things will always pick up and inflation will kick in and prices will generally increase over time.

Sorry if I am rambling or not making sense, but as someone who is just learning, I am trying to get a better understanding of the situation. So even though I don't agree with Ole Capt (my gut tells me there is a little more pain out there yet), at some point in time, X amount of consecutive, positive growth must see an end to the bottom as the market swings back up. So, is there a definition for trending in the Real estate industry in the USA?
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Old 03-20-2011, 07:07 PM
 
91 posts, read 174,809 times
Reputation: 68
This is dangerous thinking, and you may want to re-think your paradigm: Over time, values should always increase, but there will be times where there are some negative growth periods, but eventually things will always pick up and inflation will kick in and prices will generally increase over time.

One thing we should all have learned from the last five year diaster is that the game is rigged in so many ways, for the average investor, that it is pointless to try to figure the game out unless you have inside information. Real assets is the only way for the average man to not get screwed over.

As for LV Real Estate, who knows what will happen?
I do know that this town is out of touch with reality, that the black market is very strong, that this is not and never will be a place to raise a family, that this town attracts the worst of the worst from planet earth, that the schools are terrible, that the air quality is terrible (cons), that the tax structure is better than most places, that the weather is good (pros).

Well, that is 6-2 against.
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Old 03-20-2011, 07:33 PM
 
31 posts, read 46,797 times
Reputation: 18
What I mean is that in the long term, values will increase. I never said it would necessarily be much, but over the course of several decades, pricing will trend up - even if it is only similar to around inflation.

Down here we tend to hold properties as flipping is difficult due to our tax situation. Firstly we have to pay Stamp Duty on every property purchased. My last purchase here was for 490k and had to pay about 16k Stamp Duty. So this makes the idea of a quick flip very difficult. Add to that we have a to pay 25 - 50% capital gains tax on any profit made. Investing in property is something that most investors here look at as a long term scenario. There are exceptions to this such as those buying a "Queenslander" (a certain type of house that would usually be over 40 years old), extensively renovating it, and then selling it. Their gains for this type of transaction should well outweigh the Stamp duty they had to pay, and the Capital Gains tax they will have to pay.
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Old 03-20-2011, 08:01 PM
 
91 posts, read 174,809 times
Reputation: 68
Well, it just like that great saying: that past performance is not an indicator of the future.

I hear ya though.

Anyway, I have become a pessimist after all crap that has gone down in this city.
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Old 03-20-2011, 08:12 PM
 
31 posts, read 46,797 times
Reputation: 18
I can certainly understand the sentiment, and don't envy the situation the city is in. All I can do from here is keep recommending to friends to head there for vacation. I hear what you say about past performance not being an indicator of the future, but you have to go off something

Vegas always seems to reinvent itself and rise from the ashes. It might take some time, but the economy will eventually turn around and as usual, when people are looking for a good time, Vegas will be a magnet again. Just my opinion though.
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Old 03-20-2011, 09:11 PM
 
91 posts, read 174,809 times
Reputation: 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadManofBethesda View Post
Which of the four words didn't you understand?
do you contribute to the forum, or just look forward to putting out wise ass comments all day?

Put something out there, you are so dam smart!
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Old 03-20-2011, 09:16 PM
 
787 posts, read 1,773,992 times
Reputation: 430
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas2005 View Post
do you contribute to the forum, or just look forward to putting out wise ass comments all day?

Put something out there, you are so dam smart!

Ummm...go look at his history. He contributes quite a bit.
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