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Old 05-16-2008, 01:12 PM
 
47 posts, read 92,891 times
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Interesting article in that it sites the median home price dropping back to the 2003 price of 225K. With a Clark County median income of 60K (HUD 2007 numbers), this would bring the price to income ratio down to 3.75 which is much more in line with historical averages.

Is anyone really surprised about this? Home prices from 2004 on rose a LOT faster then local incomes. Retirees & outside investors can’t buy everything…
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Old 05-16-2008, 02:29 PM
 
151 posts, read 246,228 times
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Now those numbers (2003 prices) are back to making sense to this investor. Those are the numbers I have had in mind for getting back into purchasing more properties. At some point, with all the incomming workers for all the big new shiny high rises that are in production now and those that could start new by 2010 or 2011, the need for both Rental and Purchased properties will make buying less risky and potentially more profitable. This is what I have been saying all along. It has to make sense be it for personal residence or investment/rental income. To me the numbers still do not make sense today.

FOD
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Old 05-16-2008, 08:43 PM
 
11 posts, read 58,809 times
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I also think the price will keep drooping. But what is going to happen to all of us who bought in 2005. Will everyone have to walk away. Because I do not see the market coming back to where I purchased my house, for maybe 10 to 15 years. I need to leave now due to unforeseen family crisis. I am just sick because I did put 20% and have not missed a payment, now I am considering foreclosing on my house.

I am hearing that they are considering principal write down. But I also see a lot of opposing arguments which may not make this a real possibility. Even if they did do this I am not sure even if I would qualify. I can't rent the house, as I would not be able to rent it for the amount of my monthly payment, and I can not afford to pay the difference. Even then I would not want to rent a house for 15 years I would be permanently stressed.
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Old 05-16-2008, 09:25 PM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
12,908 posts, read 27,933,848 times
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you will notice that the prices of the repos are stabilizing, and the houses are getting more and more offers... now its even hard to offer the listing price... ive been knocked out of several properties.. i actually think the market will be back in a few years, you have to get rid of the foreclosures first.. and crashed, if you put 20% down, you should be able to sell and clear the loan... what area did you buy? some areas are strong..
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Old 05-16-2008, 11:08 PM
 
391 posts, read 1,712,124 times
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A couple of recent articles posted give a pretty good perspective to both sides of the argument.

I think you can expect Vegas to move before the national market. So while the national market clearly will not bottom for probably 12-18 months, that doesn't mean Vegas hasn't.

Personally, I see NO catalyst to turn things around. Perhaps we are plateauing at a bottom, but I feel like at this point the only real action is going to be people who have to buy (lease is up) or people who have to sell (foreclosure, dwindling). If you haven't sold by now, and/or don't have to, you probably will wait another year or more. And if you are a buyer, with no catalyst on the immediate horizon you will wait and wait for the perfect opportunity.

Business is down a bit on the Strip, but I expect the national economy to turn the corner in 3-6 months. So I think we could see a healthy rebound here in Vegas starting as early as Q4. I don't foresee significantly more lay-offs (which always precedes a true real estate bottom), but I also don't see any reason why home buyers and investors would be anxious to make a play any time soon.

I think whomever commented about City Center and Encore opening as being the turning point is probably correct. You still have to look at the ratio of price to income (as most of those jobs are decent paying, but not really enough to support good growth at current price levels)
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Old 05-16-2008, 11:16 PM
 
11 posts, read 58,809 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by airics View Post
you will notice that the prices of the repos are stabilizing, and the houses are getting more and more offers... now its even hard to offer the listing price... ive been knocked out of several properties.. i actually think the market will be back in a few years, you have to get rid of the foreclosures first.. and crashed, if you put 20% down, you should be able to sell and clear the loan... what area did you buy? some areas are strong..
I bought in Aliante. My house was $329,000 and now the same model as mine is sell for $182,000. I would have to pay the bank $85,000 to sell my house, on top of the $67,000 I payed as a down payment.
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Old 05-17-2008, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
12,908 posts, read 27,933,848 times
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if you are basing the 182k on a listing price of a repo, you are way off, the houses in aliante sell for more than list.
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Old 05-17-2008, 09:04 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,129,998 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by crashed View Post
I bought in Aliante. My house was $329,000 and now the same model as mine is sell for $182,000. I would have to pay the bank $85,000 to sell my house, on top of the $67,000 I payed as a down payment.
Try and hang in there until the Congress resolves the pending foreclosure legislaton. It is quite likely you will be in the class helped if it gets done. I will almost guarantee though that if you leave the home you will not be.

If you end up with a reset you might be able to sell or rent.

If it becomes impossible rent the place. That at least keeps it up and prevents damage. You can keep the revenue or give it to the bank as the foreclosure proceeds and your conscience dictates.
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Old 05-17-2008, 07:36 PM
 
11 posts, read 58,809 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Try and hang in there until the Congress resolves the pending foreclosure legislaton. It is quite likely you will be in the class helped if it gets done. I will almost guarantee though that if you leave the home you will not be.

If you end up with a reset you might be able to sell or rent.

If it becomes impossible rent the place. That at least keeps it up and prevents damage. You can keep the revenue or give it to the bank as the foreclosure proceeds and your conscience dictates.
Thank you olecapt for your advice. I am going to try and wait, and hopeful some thing good comes down the pipeline. but I agree with you that I stand a much better chance if I stay in the house.
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Old 05-20-2008, 05:05 PM
 
289 posts, read 1,038,186 times
Reputation: 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHEPNYC View Post
A national finance magazine predicts more big price drops in the Las Vegas housing market, and that devaluation could mean more pain for the local economy, experts say.

Money magazine, in its May 7 issue, placed Las Vegas near the top of its list of markets poised for declines in housing prices in the next 12 months.

ReviewJournal.com - Business - Tumbling home prices seen
Quoting the article:

"Locals shouldn't expect prices to bottom out until sometime between January and March 2010, the magazine added."

And here's a disturbing statistic with implications for the local economy:

"Every 1 percent in lost single-family home values prunes $800 million in wealth from Southern Nevada's households, according to Las Vegas research firm Applied Analysis."
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