[lvoc]

Originally Posted by Fastrudy

Good News! Straight from a Realtor™'s mouth. The three major banks in Las Vegas have "no shadow inventory". FWIW, she was trying to justify a 189K house in a 112K neighborhood.

Von949- Great comments at the end of that sunshiney article about how Vegas went from a buyers market to a seller's market in a year. It amazes me what BS they try to report to the masses.

Define shadow inventory. To some definitions it is very small. You can also use more global definitions that will make shadow inventory huge. So first you have to define your terms. If you mean bank owned and not listed it is small. If you mean somewhere in the foreclosure process but not yet bank owned it is much bigger. If you mean may eventually be foreclosed or short sold it is very large. If you accept sellers market as in the article...it is a seller's market. No doubt about it. Actually it is a seller's market by virtually every common metric. If you mean a high priced market it is not.

[tbill618]

Originally Posted by 007 license to sell

Here is the latest on what is happening with foreclosures. It looks like more properties are being foreclosed on again. As a buyer or a seller you need to watch this very closely this could mean a dip in prices down the road. I have been noticing more listing on mls daily now than I have in a long time.

[SIZE=4]Foreclosures are on the rise again in Las Vegas[/SIZE]‎

I've noticed more homes on the market in Henderson in the past week. Of course, they are still selling so someone wants to take advantage of current market conditions. Here is some data:

89052 Homes for sale: April = 628, June 558. Price increase $/sq.ft Spring to now = $98 to $104.

89012 Homes for sale: April = 351, June 335. Price increase $/sq.ft Spring to now = $90 to $90.

89074 Homes for sale: April = 422, June 399. Price increase $/sq.ft January to now = $76 to $79. (Odd bump in data in the spring so I used January as a starting point.)

89044 Homes for sale: April = 314, June 241. Price increase $/sq.ft Spring to now = $97 to $97.

89052 has seen the largest increase in $/sq.ft. (6%) and the second largest drop in inventory (12%). But most zip codes did haven't seen any price appreciation. 89052 is also plateauing for the past two weeks in price. This makes sense due to the season. My guess is the banks are getting their acts together vis a vis AB 284.

We move from Illinois next week so leave some homes for us to look at, please.

[jet757f]

Wow prices have gone up over the past few months.

[lvoc]

The zip code variability is pretty high. 89012 has moved little if at all...but 89134 is up over 10%. 89131 is up around 7 or 8% as is 89129. I would think it would be interesting to see the differences by sales type.

[007 license to sell]

As a buyer and or seller of real-estate in and around Las Vegas you will want to read this article. It address's the fact prices are rising which is good for the seller but for the buyer it means you will pay more. However with the banks starting to release more bank owned properties that could change and prices could go down, as far as when or how much no one really knows.

There is more going on behind the scenes than just releasing properties to sell. Some banks are foreclosing on properties and letting the home owner rent for a year. And some banks have been bundling notes to hedge funds and selling them in return the hedge fund will rent out the properties for 3 yrs. There is allot more going on if you would like to hear about more feel free to contact me.

Fewer Las Vegas homeowners underwater on mortgages

[tbill618]

Originally Posted by 007 license to sell

As a buyer and or seller of real-estate in and around Las Vegas you will want to read this article. It address's the fact prices are rising which is good for the seller but for the buyer it means you will pay more. However with the banks starting to release more bank owned properties that could change and prices could go down, as far as when or how much no one really knows.

There is more going on behind the scenes than just releasing properties to sell. Some banks are foreclosing on properties and letting the home owner rent for a year. And some banks have been bundling notes to hedge funds and selling them in return the hedge fund will rent out the properties for 3 yrs. There is allot more going on if you would like to hear about more feel free to contact me.

Fewer Las Vegas homeowners underwater on mortgages

Thanks for the info. Our broker just called on a house and found out it was occupied by renters who are getting their eviction notice soon. The Selling agent hadn't even been in the house yet. This is the same situation we had with the house we are selling now. I hope those renters are not too P.O.ed. We had a few walls to patch and had to replace the smoke alarms. The idiots took the alarms but left the electrical connection which makes them pretty much useless.

[David702]

It's clear that the investor are driving up the prices as we all know 50%+ percent of the homes selling are cash. There isn't too many people in Vegas that can do that.

Right now, Las Vegas is a good deal for investors as you can pick up a home for $100k and get a rental income of $1k a month. That's a 12% cash on cash return (Wiki Cash on Cash).

Once prices continue to raise and investor can no longer get the return they want, what do you think will happen?
I think local Las Vegan's will be the ones who will buy the homes, but they must be able to afford it. Loan are tight to prevent the fallout.

Here's an example:
Investor 1 buys home for $100k, cash on cash 12%
Investor 2 buys neighboring home for $120k, cash on cash return 10%
Investor 3 buys neighboring home for $150k, cash on cash return 8%
etc. etc.
The median homes are now $200k, investor won't get the return they want, they are no longer interested.

Someone in the neighboring home wants to sell, they can't get $200k from investors, Las Vegan's can't afford it.
Prices go down......(Price point is an example)
and eventually to the point to where residence can afford what ever number that maybe. By then, some investor will already pull out and move to the next money maker.

[NoMoreRJ]

Originally Posted by David702

It's clear that the investor are driving up the prices as we all know 50%+ percent of the homes selling are cash. There isn't too many people in Vegas that can do that.

Right now, Las Vegas is a good deal for investors as you can pick up a home for $100k and get a rental income of $1k a month. That's a 12% cash on cash return (Wiki Cash on Cash).

Once prices continue to raise and investor can no longer get the return they want, what do you think will happen?
I think local Las Vegan's will be the ones who will buy the homes, but they must be able to afford it. Loan are tight to prevent the fallout.

Here's an example:
Investor 1 buys home for $100k, cash on cash 12%
Investor 2 buys neighboring home for $120k, cash on cash return 10%
Investor 3 buys neighboring home for $150k, cash on cash return 8%
etc. etc.
The median homes are now $200k, investor won't get the return they want, they are no longer interested.

Someone in the neighboring home wants to sell, they can't get $200k from investors, Las Vegan's can't afford it.
Prices go down......(Price point is an example)
and eventually to the point to where residence can afford what ever number that maybe. By then, some investor will already pull out and move to the next money maker.

Don't you need to take into consideration the property taxes, listing of the rental, upkeep, hoa fees, other expenses? I don't think you can look at it that simply, can you?

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by David702

It's clear that the investor are driving up the prices as we all know 50%+ percent of the homes selling are cash. There isn't too many people in Vegas that can do that.

Right now, Las Vegas is a good deal for investors as you can pick up a home for $100k and get a rental income of $1k a month. That's a 12% cash on cash return (Wiki Cash on Cash).

Once prices continue to raise and investor can no longer get the return they want, what do you think will happen?
I think local Las Vegan's will be the ones who will buy the homes, but they must be able to afford it. Loan are tight to prevent the fallout.

Here's an example:
Investor 1 buys home for $100k, cash on cash 12%
Investor 2 buys neighboring home for $120k, cash on cash return 10%
Investor 3 buys neighboring home for $150k, cash on cash return 8%
etc. etc.
The median homes are now $200k, investor won't get the return they want, they are no longer interested.

Someone in the neighboring home wants to sell, they can't get $200k from investors, Las Vegan's can't afford it.
Prices go down......(Price point is an example)
and eventually to the point to where residence can afford what ever number that maybe. By then, some investor will already pull out and move to the next money maker.

$100,000 home renting for $1000 per month might yield 5 or 6% after you get past your costs and reasonable reserves. If the house goes to $150,000 the investor sells it because his return is down to 3% or so. You really want $50K houses that rent for $800 or $850. Which were common but now hard to find. A price recovery in these neighborhoods swiftly drives the investors out. The property is worth too much for its return. So they sell. I suspect the play now is appreciation...not yield. But who knows...maybe we are back to favoring the owner occupant.

[lvoc]

It appears clear the market has changed drastically and is going up. Basically it looks like this month will show a 20/40/40 distribution REO/Short/Classic. REO pricing is up 10%. Short is down a bit - now effectively identical to REO. Classic is up more than 10%.

Had a side discussion about all this with a young buyer the other day who has sworn off shorts. But look at the problem that results. The only good buys will be the 20% REO which go in less than a week and over list with all the nice ones in 15 bid wars. The classics are running $25 a SF more than the REOs. So basically you go for a REO and fight it out or get 25% less house for the dollar.

There is no indication anything is rolling off so we may be chasing Phoenix. Could be a vastly different market by spring.