[observer53]

Several off topic posts deleted.

The topic here is LV real estate market, not retirement or politics. There are other forums here for those discussions. Thanks.

[SportyandMisty]

back to Real estate...

[Sunny88]

Here is an article I came across today:

"LAS VEGAS -- It's estimated there are thousands of foreclosed homes about to hit the local housing market. According to banking and real estate insiders, Las Vegas real estate is about to take another big hit, and it could delay the recovery for years to come.
Foreclosure notices continue to be posted on homes around the Las Vegas valley.
"What I'm hearing from sources, is that work has never been busier," realtor Jared Jones said. ..."


Las Vegas Housing Marking Facing Foreclosure Glut - 8 News NOW

[lvoc]

Does not compute. If you check the data attached to that report it shows nothing more than a continuation of last month.

Jared Jones may well believe it is going to hit again. But he has a very strong vested interest. He is the largest REO operation in Vegas or close to it. I would think he goes out of business or completely retools if this continues much longer.

I would still contend that the system is not capable of handling enough REOs to really change anything at this point. Maybe if the Banks all went full out they could build a system to process 2000 or 3000 REOs a month in a year or more. But I doubt even those numbers would cause any heroic change.

One hears rumors of a big spurt in judicial foreclosure but there don't seem to be any statistics supporting that. Judicial foreclosure is much more expensive and has some interesting side effects in the details.

[tbill618]

July Market Report - Excuse me if this has been posted already.

3,430 SFH, Condos, and Townhomes closed.

Resale 1,325 - 38.6%
Short Sales 1,398 - 40.8%
REO 707 - 20.6%

1,868 Cash purchases
840 Conventional Financing
538 FHA
127 VA

(Via Lisa Ray Ticor Title.)

[Datafeed]

Originally Posted by lvoc

Does not compute. If you check the data attached to that report it shows nothing more than a continuation of last month.

Jared Jones may well believe it is going to hit again. But he has a very strong vested interest. He is the largest REO operation in Vegas or close to it. I would think he goes out of business or completely retools if this continues much longer.

I would still contend that the system is not capable of handling enough REOs to really change anything at this point. Maybe if the Banks all went full out they could build a system to process 2000 or 3000 REOs a month in a year or more. But I doubt even those numbers would cause any heroic change.

One hears rumors of a big spurt in judicial foreclosure but there don't seem to be any statistics supporting that. Judicial foreclosure is much more expensive and has some interesting side effects in the details.

You underestimate the ability of corporations to increase bandwidth if there is economic incentive to do so; the free market is highly adaptive and quite flexible.

I concur that the numbers proffered in the article do not indicate an imminent windfall of new homes crashing the market.

There is a lack of transparency and uncertainty surrounding the underlying factors which lead to foreclosures.

A good indicator for future foreclosures will be the number of homeowners seriously delinquent on their current mortgages;however, the potential for legislative relief and the ferocity in which banks press the foreclosure process will further complicate things.

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by Datafeed

You underestimate the ability of corporations to increase bandwidth if there is economic incentive to do so; the free market is highly adaptive and quite flexible.

I concur that the numbers proffered in the article do not indicate an imminent windfall of new homes crashing the market.

There is a lack of transparency and uncertainty surrounding the underlying factors which lead to foreclosures.

A good indicator for future foreclosures will be the number of homeowners seriously delinquent on their current mortgages;however, the potential for legislative relief and the ferocity in which banks press the foreclosure process will further complicate things.

Actually I am one of the few people in the US or the world who has actually tried to do something interesting with an open ended budget. Time is far more proscribing than anyone understands until they attempt to do it.

And in no way do I ever suggest the ultimate bandwidth cannot be anything they are willing to pay for...but there are two really big provisions. It takes time, lots of time, and always vastly more time than initially estimated..and it cannot have a government piece in the middle.

The problem simply has too many unknowns. What price will the banks attempt to achieve? The last time price was an outcome as they achieved volume. But this time? Is it possible that a bank might try to make a few bucks off the foreclosures? Or that an investor pool or two might?

This endeavor is pretty well doomed by both factors. And, in my opinion, the people who do this sort of thing are certain to screw it up royally...adding a third negative factor. You know many bright mid level engineers or MBAs who want to build the world's best foreclosure mill?

These continue to be interesting times.

[von949]

Originally Posted by Sunny88

Here is an article I came across today:

"LAS VEGAS -- It's estimated there are thousands of foreclosed homes about to hit the local housing market. According to banking and real estate insiders, Las Vegas real estate is about to take another big hit, and it could delay the recovery for years to come.
Foreclosure notices continue to be posted on homes around the Las Vegas valley.
"What I'm hearing from sources, is that work has never been busier," realtor Jared Jones said. ..."


Las Vegas Housing Marking Facing Foreclosure Glut - 8 News NOW

They need to just release them already and get it over with. If every home in Vegas was valued at $10,000 there will be no where to go but up.

[Datafeed]

Operating with a de facto open budget is not too uncommon.

Time limitations can be mitigated by the addition of resources.

I will not concede that bandwidth limitations are anything more than a short term operational impediment.

I agree with you that the government tinkering can interfere with market efficiencies.

Away with the esoteric:

If the banks want to process more foreclosures they will do so. And they will do so relatively easily.

This is not a difficult task to accomplish. One does not need Romney type tier 1 management consultants to develop a plan to expedite the foreclosure process...more like a task achieved by the 2 tier consulting firm I used to work for in Manhattan.

You sir are correct, these are interesting times.

I think when one weeds out the the chaff and the noise, it's hard to come to any conclusion other than: many more homes will eventually hit the market as many people in Vegas can't pay their mortgages as the incomes there can't sustain the housing market above a certain price point.

When this will happen and at what pace? Who knows.

I despise offering anecdotal evidence but I will. I have a contingent offer on a short sale in Lake Las Vegas in the 300-350k range. The area is nice and the home last sold for around 600k (maybe more but i cant recall). When I met the owners I was expecting them to be professionals or sumptin. Nope, the guy was a bartender and the lady was an enlisted member of the reserves.

Why are these people in a 600k house with a balloon mortgage payment? Them and the 1000s like them cant afford to live so grand.

The chickens will come to roost..eventually..a smarter man than me can speculate if it's four months or two years away.

that being said, it's not very prudent to worry about slight upticks in housing either way. A house is a home, not a piggy bank...a place to set roots, raise a family, and contribute to the community. You should ask yourself: 1. Do I want to live here? 2. Can I afford to live here? As long as you can afford the payments who cares if it's underwater. It's your home.

[Datafeed]

Originally Posted by von949

They need to just release them already and get it over with. If every home in Vegas was valued at $10,000 there will be no where to go but up.

they should.

but the fools who overextended themselves will go whining to pandering idiotic politicians who will try to interfere with the free market and craft zany legislation that makes the responsible subsidize the irresponsible.

robo signing or not, folks lived in homes they could not afford now they cant pay so they need to move out.