[LuisSuarez]

You are very lucky if you buy at the bottom. I prefer to buy on a solid rising trend which I did in Dec 2012.

[logline]

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ng0UJ8jLVF...esJune2013.jpg

I don't see a bubble for Las Vegas here.

[Everdeen]

^ It's up 17% from 13 years ago? I don't think that's a bubble either. That, however, does not play into the narrative of the of our visitor who likes to reinvent himself (notice how I am not using the "T" word). It always nice, though, when someone uses a rep to chew you out.

[007 license to sell]

Whether your a potential buyer or you've already purchased property in the Vegas Valley you will want to read this article on the rising property values in our Vegas Valley.

However keep in mind not only are prices going up so are interest rates. So the property that a buyer could've afforded before just changed and that buyer will be looking at a smaller home or condo for the price that they could've gotten a bigger property for.

Some buyers are already priced out of the market. These are still low prices for now how much more they will go up, or if they should dip down again is anyone's guess.
Las Vegas leads all cities with 24.9 percent home-price gain
Las Vegas leads all cities with 24.9 percent home-price gain | Las Vegas Review-Journal

[observer53]

Please do not discuss other posters in this thread. Such posts are off topic.

[djslakor]

Originally Posted by Onlyliveonce

Most people cannot let their ego admit this. It takes a big person to acknowledge the obvious sometimes.

I personally acknowledge buying in 2011-2012 and selling at today's prices is obviously a great opportunity IF you sell to realize the profit. A profit doesn't exist until you sell.

I do still question if that opportunity will last indefinitely, though. The question, for me, is not if 2011-2012 was a good time to buy: it clearly was. The question is more so, is now STILL a good time to buy, or will we see another possible downturn ahead (not necessarily as low as 2011-2012).

The housing market is very strange right now.

If you give Case/Shiller any respect at all (which housing bulls tend to do since they turn to the Case/Shiller index as a rubric for price data), note that Case just last week said of Phoenix and Vegas: "They’re clearly in bubbles." Shiller, just yesterday, said "none of this is real, the housing market has gotten very speculative, driven by irrational exuberance."

If you think both of these guys are looney and wrong, why would you trust their index data for positive news, but ignore them otherwise? They've spent their entire careers studying this exact topic. They aren't particularly the worst people to listen to.

[Everdeen]

Originally Posted by djslakor

note that Case just last week said of Phoenix and Vegas: "They’re clearly in bubbles." Shiller, just yesterday, said "none of this is real, the housing market has gotten very speculative, driven by irrational exuberance."

Would you source this please? I looked for this report and could not find it.

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by djslakor

I personally acknowledge buying in 2011-2012 and selling at today's prices is obviously a great opportunity IF you sell to realize the profit. A profit doesn't exist until you sell.

I do still question if that opportunity will last indefinitely, though. The question, for me, is not if 2011-2012 was a good time to buy: it clearly was. The question is more so, is now STILL a good time to buy, or will we see another possible downturn ahead (not necessarily as low as 2011-2012).

The housing market is very strange right now.

If you give Case/Shiller any respect at all (which housing bulls tend to do since they turn to the Case/Shiller index as a rubric for price data), note that Case just last week said of Phoenix and Vegas: "They’re clearly in bubbles." Shiller, just yesterday, said "none of this is real, the housing market has gotten very speculative, driven by irrational exuberance."

If you think both of these guys are looney and wrong, why would you trust their index data for positive news, but ignore them otherwise? They've spent their entire careers studying this exact topic. They aren't particularly the worst people to listen to.

Case Shiller developed probably the best way of tracking Real Estate at least of the standard SFR sort.

That gives no particular4 cache to Case or Shiller. Figuring a good way to measure something in no way implies you understand why it does that.

In fact Case Shiller was a terrible tool in Las Vegas during the collapse. The problem is they simply would not deal with as much as 90% of the data. That was a good thing in terms of what a regular sale would do...but regular sales were down to 10% or less of the total during the crash. And even as it turns around CS still way underestimates the rise....maybe by 10 or 15%. That is because they will use no transaction where one end was distressed. So probably over half the transactions are still screened from the data.

So CS is a good tool for normal times and normal SFR marketplaces. And it will provide continuity when we get all the weirdness out of the way.

That however creates no connection between the worth of the index and the prognostic capability of Case and Shiller.

The insane run-up has stopped for the last couple of months though things are going up gently. CS of course does not show this yet as it is way delayed in time. But there still is no big signs of weakness that would result in a substantial price drop.

As to long term I would think the historical trend is about as good a guess as is available. And we still trail that.

[djslakor]

Everdeen,

Karl Case quote source: Bubbles Bloom Anew in Desert as Buyers Wager on Las Vegas - Bloomberg

Robert Shiller quote source: Bob Shiller: "None Of This Is Real; The Housing Market Has Become Very Speculative"

[mod cut-personal]

[Everdeen]

[mod cut-- personal]

The second one, Las Vegas wasn't even mentioned. Not really sure why you threw that in there.

The first one they talk about a 23% increase over last year, but not about any of the pertinent information that would be relevant. For example, the fact that the Las Vegas market had dipped below it's trajectory (see post 7164) that it would normally be on and has not reached where it should be, is very relevant.

It seems to me that this is a market correction just like when the actual bubble burst and prices dropped.