[MaryoVilla]

I felt this was the case a year ago and I still do today, when we went around to see model homes in the Centennial Hills/Skye Canyon area the sales agent always gave us copies of the price sheet, I thought, holy cow these houses are expensive! Is it just me or is a bubble about to pop, again?

I can only say this because I bought our home in mid-2011 at an awesome price lol!

https://www.reviewjournal.com/busine...s-report-says/

[JonathanLB]

Not really, no. I mean when an article is talking about $295K as a median home price, for one of the best weather, most entertainment-filled, lowest tax cities in America, that's not overvalued. Houses in Portland, which I hate, are $420K on average supposedly. Again I have no idea where they get these numbers as there's nothing acceptable in Portland anywhere near that price. Maybe townhomes or shacks, I don't know, we had $600K and decided to go to a suburb because everything for $600K sucked hardcore. In Vegas you can get at least fairly nice homes in the $500K range which is pretty impressive for a West Coast city.

Compare the luxury market in Vegas, where $1-2M gets you a really awesome place, to the luxury market in CA where it might cost you $4-10M to get something really nice, and I don't see how you can really say it's overvalued.

If everyone who was buying in Vegas worked on the Strip in hospitality and made $35K per year, sure, yeah it's overvalued. But since that's not reality, and most buyers of nicer homes are out-of-state or make good incomes that aren't dependent on the local economy, the homes aren't overvalued. I think these people are pretending Las Vegas is, say, Memphis, TN. Nobody would own a house in Memphis unless they lived there and worked there and that was their general home. People don't really decide to go retire in Memphis or buy vacation homes there. They do all of those things in Las Vegas, which is going to make the housing market a lot more expensive compared to the average wages of your typical resident. It's not a market that depends on the investment of average wage-workers except at the lower ends of the market.

[airics]

I don’t think the prices are overvalued..

A bubble? I doubt it highly. I do believe in the next year, prices are going to stabilize more. They won’t be going down, they just won’t be increasing like they are now

[JonathanLB]

Agreed, they can't keep increasing like they are now. This last year is out of control, I read 16% increases. That's ridiculous. What really annoys me is my market was almost that hot when we bought, or the year after, it was up 12 or 13% in a year. But it has cooled down and I think is up 8% the last year, a far cry from 16%, and made worse by the fact we're moving up in home value so it hurts worse when you're wanting something more expensive that's increasing at a more rapid rate than where you're selling from.

[OmegaSupreme]

Higher percentage gains are easier when you are coming off a low base, nothing suprising there

So we've had pot legalized. Will that continue to drive prices up?
What about the hype and hysteria associated with the Raiders?

If things get out of hand, I don't think $400,000 median home price is out of the question within 5 years.... If mortgage rates continue to go up, then that will never happen... Instead, maybe things will crash

[luckydogg]

Fitch rated Vegas the most overvalued in their report last year and said home values could not be sustained. Well not only were they sustained, they went up another 12%. Oops. Maybe next year if they say pretty please with a cherry on top the housing market will finally listen to them and cease and desist? I bet that will help.

I don't know who Fitch writes these reports for, or what the point is other than click bait (advertisers love click bait). Prices are sustained or not sustained because of demand relative to supply, not because a rating agency like Fitch has a hissy fit. Now of course you can always debate or even question what is driving demand, and that's probably a better report to write if you are really serious. You could even compare Vegas to other cities like San Jose CA that went up 24% in a year to $1.3 million which is 10 times the average salary and explain why Vegas is overvalued compared to San Jose. But that would actually take some brain power and someone to compose a well reasoned argument with lots of data to support it, and it might not make very good click bait fodder to link on Facebook.

Idiots.

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by luckydogg

Fitch rated Vegas the most overvalued in their report last year and said home values could not be sustained. Well not only were they sustained, they went up another 12%. Oops. Maybe next year if they say pretty please with a cherry on top the housing market will finally listen to them and cease and desist? I bet that will help.

I don't know who Fitch writes these reports for, or what the point is other than click bait (advertisers love click bait). Prices are sustained or not sustained because of demand relative to supply, not because a rating agency like Fitch has a hissy fit. Now of course you can always debate or even question what is driving demand, and that's probably a better report to write if you are really serious. You could even compare Vegas to other cities like San Jose CA that went up 24% in a year to $1.3 million which is 10 times the average salary and explain why Vegas is overvalued compared to San Jose. But that would actually take some brain power and someone to compose a well reasoned argument with lots of data to support it, and it might not make very good click bait fodder to link on Facebook.

Idiots.

Let me guess, you don't like Fitch?

[luckydogg]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

Let me guess, you don't like Fitch?

Nah I just woke up in a bad mood, lol.

[lluvia]

Originally Posted by JonathanLB

Not really, no. I mean when an article is talking about $295K as a median home price, for one of the best weather, most entertainment-filled, lowest tax cities in America, that's not overvalued. Houses in Portland, which I hate, are $420K on average supposedly. Again I have no idea where they get these numbers as there's nothing acceptable in Portland anywhere near that price. Maybe townhomes or shacks, I don't know, we had $600K and decided to go to a suburb because everything for $600K sucked hardcore. In Vegas you can get at least fairly nice homes in the $500K range which is pretty impressive for a West Coast city.

Compare the luxury market in Vegas, where $1-2M gets you a really awesome place, to the luxury market in CA where it might cost you $4-10M to get something really nice, and I don't see how you can really say it's overvalued.

If everyone who was buying in Vegas worked on the Strip in hospitality and made $35K per year, sure, yeah it's overvalued. But since that's not reality, and most buyers of nicer homes are out-of-state or make good incomes that aren't dependent on the local economy, the homes aren't overvalued. I think these people are pretending Las Vegas is, say, Memphis, TN. Nobody would own a house in Memphis unless they lived there and worked there and that was their general home. People don't really decide to go retire in Memphis or buy vacation homes there. They do all of those things in Las Vegas, which is going to make the housing market a lot more expensive compared to the average wages of your typical resident. It's not a market that depends on the investment of average wage-workers except at the lower ends of the market.

So what happens to the average wage hospitality Strip worker?
What do they buy? Where do they live? No options for them other than the sewers?

[JonathanLB]

There are always apartments and there are always blocks and blocks of small houses stacked together especially in areas like North Vegas and around downtown. One thing that doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out is those areas must be about 80% Hispanic Lol. If the city is supposedly about 50% Hispanic but Summerlin and Henderson are 10-12% Hispanic it seems like the rest of the city must be waaay higher. So those areas are where you see cheap houses. There are always cheaper areas of any city. Low wage workers live in those places.