[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by waltchan

OP here, and I want to revive this thread because Sands just sold the Venetian, Palazzo, and others on the Strip, which marks the end of Las Vegas, and early-stage of exodus migration, I think, possibly back to California (this time in central region, with Merced, CA being the new flagship). Las Vegas also has no plans to open up a well-ranking university at anytime soon, and the closest campus is UC Riverside for the Las Vegas commuters.

What do you think? Will Las Vegas gradually become a high-tech, Silicon job creator, or Great Depression 2 with no decent jobs by 2030.

The Venetian/Palazzo was sold but that means somebody else BOUGHT IT. Some smart people bought it for $6bil. That tells me somebody thinks something good will happen in LV eventually!

The pandemic has caused many of us to be able to work from home and my wife and I (each with advanced degrees) will be moving to Vegas in a couple more months. There are many others like us.

People are flooding out of California. Costs are still higher in Cali. There is a big net migration loss in Cali as you likely know.

The best though is look at home much it costs to rent a U-Haul from Cali to LV and vice versa. I just did it for you for fun. Two identical trips. 3 day rentals with 392 included miles. Rent a 26" U-Haul from San Diego to Las Vegas on March 31st it costs $1,250. Rent same vehicle, on the same day, from LV to SD and it is $274. Lol. I wonder where people are moving TO more!?

[airics]

Originally Posted by longviewJoe

The Venetian/Palazzo was sold but that means somebody else BOUGHT IT. Some smart people bought it for $6bil. That tells me somebody thinks something good will happen in LV eventually!

The pandemic has caused many of us to be able to work from home and my wife and I (each with advanced degrees) will be moving to Vegas in a couple more months. There are many others like us.

People are flooding out of California. Costs are still higher in Cali. There is a big net migration loss in Cali as you likely know.

The best though is look at home much it costs to rent a U-Haul from Cali to LV and vice versa. I just did it for you for fun. Two identical trips. 3 day rentals with 392 included miles. Rent a 26" U-Haul from San Diego to Las Vegas on March 31st it costs $1,250. Rent same vehicle, on the same day, from LV to SD and it is $274. Lol. I wonder where people are moving TO more!?

actually selling at 6billion could be considered a loss. it cost 4 billion to build them in 1999 and 2008, 13 and 22 year return of 50% without adding todays dollar.. I don't see it a good thing. Adelson died, the family wants the cash

[waltchan]

Originally Posted by airics

actually selling at 6billion could be considered a loss. it cost 4 billion to build them in 1999 and 2008, 13 and 22 year return of 50% without adding todays dollar.. I don't see it a good thing. Adelson died, the family wants the cash

The worst is yet to come for Las Vegas, I think. People may be happy now but not noticing yet. After 50 years, it's possible for a mass-migration back to California after home prices stabilizing, and the central region with high-speed rail influencing the economy is now the future. Don't forget UC Merced campus too.

[Cold Warrior]

Originally Posted by waltchan

The worst is yet to come for Las Vegas, I think. People may be happy now but not noticing yet. After 50 years, it's possible for a mass-migration back to California after home prices stabilizing, and the central region with high-speed rail influencing the economy is now the future. Don't forget UC Merced campus too.

Jerry's central valley high speed train from nowhere to nowhere? It will never get close to Los Angeles or the Bay Area.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by waltchan

The worst is yet to come for Las Vegas, I think. People may be happy now but not noticing yet. After 50 years, it's possible for a mass-migration back to California after home prices stabilizing, and the central region with high-speed rail influencing the economy is now the future. Don't forget UC Merced campus too.

Not likely. Big constraint is the cost of housing. SFRs in Los Angeles are over twice the cost of Las Vegas. There may well be some areas with competitive pricing but they are not going to be major cities or have good job prospects.

So it is pretty clear Las Vegas will continue to suck in the folk from Los Angeles.

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

Not likely. Big constraint is the cost of housing. SFRs in Los Angeles are over twice the cost of Las Vegas. There may well be some areas with competitive pricing but they are not going to be major cities or have good job prospects.

So it is pretty clear Las Vegas will continue to suck in the folk from Los Angeles.

"Suck in" kind of implies that they move to LV not because they actually want to, but because circumstances force it. Is that really a good thing?

A lot of people move to LV for various reasons, of course. Anecdotally, I personally only know two types of people that move to Las Vegas:

1.) Boomer-aged Republicans who made terrible financial decisions throughout their lives and harp endlessly about "paying taxes", i.e. the "Me First/Fox News" crowd.

2.) People with minimal educational obtainment who are looking for lower-skilled service sector employment and cheap(er) rents.


If my anecdotes have any meaning, and play out in larger numbers on a larger scale, this explains a lot of things about Clark County, specifically, and Nevada in general:

The libertarianism, the growth-for-the-sake-of-growth mindset, the lackadaisical attitude towards education, lack of respect for educated people and institutions that seems to dominate Nevada, the increasing urban issues and the growing hunger for a social response found in the increasing number of Democratic ticket voters. Yet, despite the hunger for a social response, nothing will change. Even the Democratic kings and queens in Clark County and Carson City seem to know that uncontrolled growth, lack of an educated population and "just enough crumbs to get by" will keep them in power.

[Mariza160]

Originally Posted by apple92680

"Suck in" kind of implies that they move to LV not because they actually want to, but because circumstances force it. Is that really a good thing?

A lot of people move to LV for various reasons, of course. Anecdotally, I personally only know two types of people that move to Las Vegas:

1.) Boomer-aged Republicans who made terrible financial decisions throughout their lives and harp endlessly about "paying taxes".

2.) People with minimal educational obtainment who are looking for lower-skilled service sector employment and cheap(er) rents.

I feel sorry that you are so limited in the people you know then.

We (my husband and I) choose to move to Las Vegas. We are both college educated, brought our
employment with us, and choose to live in Las Vegas over California where my family resides.

There must be a lot of us too because they are building new houses like crazy here
and it shows no signs of slowing down.

Mariza

[Dom Cobb]

Originally Posted by waltchan

The worst is yet to come for Las Vegas, I think. People may be happy now but not noticing yet. After 50 years, it's possible for a mass-migration back to California after home prices stabilizing, and the central region with high-speed rail influencing the economy is now the future. Don't forget UC Merced campus too.

OP - if your thinking out far enough for a 50 year timeline then we all could be dead from Yellowstone erupting, zombie plague or civil war.

We get it. You think Vegas is going to implode. Many here who actually live here and see what’s happening on the ground disagree. Time to move on. Enjoy Merced.

[Mariza160]

Originally Posted by waltchan

The worst is yet to come for Las Vegas, I think. People may be happy now but not noticing yet. After 50 years, it's possible for a mass-migration back to California after home prices stabilizing, and the central region with high-speed rail influencing the economy is now the future. Don't forget UC Merced campus too.

Thanks for my laugh of the day. In 50 years, it is also possible
that the 9.0 quake hits California and half of the state disappears
into the Pacific in a blaze of glory. (What movie was that again...oh
yeah 2012...one of my favorites...)

Las Vegas is no shining city of the future but California will need
to undergo a rapid adjustment in the more immediate future. It's
current trajectory of high taxes, net migration outflow, and government
policies/spending is unsubstainable. The one great thing that California
has over its neighboring states (including Nevada) is its colleges and
universities. I wouldn't exactly put UC Merced at the top of that list though.

[lvmensch]

We moved to Las Vegas over climate. Our first choice was Maui which we tried and rejected. Next we scouted Scottsdale and Las Vegas. Liked both as a place to live but decided LV was the more desirable urbanity. Moved to temporary rental and were close to giving up and going to Scottsdale or inland CA. Chanced on our present home and were stricken. Been here 25 years and will leave only if the situation forces it. Could happen but we will stay in NW Las Vegas. Ideally we plan on going out from this address in the coroners truck. But we are both in pretty good shape for very mature so we will see.