[RationalExpectations]

Originally Posted by luckydogg

Based on what? The yield curve? The bond market alone doesn't make a recession

Very true.

In the past, yield curve inversion happened when inflation was really high and the Fed policy was to drive short term interest rates up to ultimately bring down long term rates over time. That is, the yield curve has ONLY inverted during monetary tightening.

We don't have anything like that happening today.

Some of the flattening is a built-in premium for bonds as an investment in a loosening monetary environment.

Every interest rate inversion that predicted a recession was accompanied by expensive & rising energy costs. We have inexpensive energy right now.

The USA does not exist in isolation, of course; a worsening economy in, for example, Germany and elsewhere in the developed world will effect us.

[Commander666]

And why has Europe faltered. The EU, and socialist leaders. This is slowly changing, England, Germany, Greece, and even France are throwing their socialist leaders out, and soon will come around economically. Socialism is wonderful. We should try it here.

[RationalExpectations]

Originally Posted by Svoboda

This time around it won't be caused by the housing bubble.

I agree.

Originally Posted by Svoboda

Consumer debt numbers in delinquent student and auto loans continue to jump -- the NY Fed just released a piece on this. Other economic indicators also point that way which is odd because a lot of other indicators show really good. To me, that means we're either seeing some fudging of numbers somewhere or there just may be an day -- a calm before the storm kind of thing.

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) was published just about a month ago on 7/18/2019. It reports the LEI for June 2019 to 111.5, down from the May figure of 111.8. This was the first decline in a year, although still quite positive. The strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are now more balanced.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, increased in June. It rose 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate) between December 2018 and June 2019. Three out of four components have advanced over the past six months. The lagging economic index increased, and at a faster rate than the CEI. As a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio declined in June. Real GDP expanded at a 3.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, after increasing 2.2 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2018.

It is not all unicorns & rainbows, of course, but on balance I'm more optimistic than pessimistic.

There is a tug-of-war between the US & China (perhaps a game of chicken); I suspect there will be a resolution next year in plenty of time for the national election.

There is a tug-of-war between the White House & The Fed. The Fed seems to be ignoring the White House.

There is a game of chicken between The Fed & the Stock Market. We'll see who blinks first.

Originally Posted by Svoboda

The bigger thing I'm seeing from what I've been reading is this may be a global recession because of how bad many other bigger nations are doing. China, Germany, UK, Mexico and several others are all reporting economic issues. I didn't realize how bad Germany was until I read a pretty lengthy piece on them earlier this week. Then you pull back the cover and realize they were heavily reliant upon China, who had just unrealistic GDP growth for a decade. Throw in our tariffs and you're starting serious freaking out in various industries -- American farmers are getting more and more vocal, for example.

If you're on Reddit, there are several economics channels that have some great articles posted. All that being said, those that manager their money well should be fine as always.

Makes sense. Some investors are saying "Europe is the Next Japan." They may be right, but for different reasons. Europe's regulatory environment and the costs of their outsized social programs are probably not sustainable, especially when coupled with their long-term low birth rate. The low birth rate was a primary reason for Germany importing so many Middle Eastern working-age men.

[hotjambalaya]

Originally Posted by luckydogg

Based on what?

Who needs it to be based on anything?! From what I can tell there seems to be a non stop flood of people on this forum claiming a recession is on the way, based on everything from tealeaves to bonds to humming bird migration.

Given different conditions I cant see any recession having such a huge impact as the last one.

[Chappy2017]

Good replies. You are in charge of your economics. I would have been a terrible entrepreneur. I play to close to the vest. We drive a 97 Tacoma and a 2008 Carolla. They were new when we bought them, and yes we could have bought better. Do I want a new car? Yes! Do I need a new car? NO!. I use a lot of Uber when we go to the Strip, Freemont, or the Smith Center. No parking fees, need to walk, front door delivery and pick up. We can drink, no problem.
The only reason I have a Rolex is it belonged to my dad, too heavy to wear and I don't need it, I have a phone.
What I love about Vegas, is the shows. BJ Thomas next week at the Golden Nugget, Ben Vereen in Sept at the Jazz Cabaret, Jimmy Buffet at the MGM in OCT. I'm not bragging, I'm saying that is what Vegas is about. My Chrohn's limits me to when I can eat, but the food is a +++.
We have 0 debt except for our house and we can pay that off but at 3.65% why? We use our CC's for purchases as we get cashback. We never carry a balance, so 0% interest. My spouses trip to Guatemala last week, FREE.(points earned)
You are in charge of your economy. I am not smart. I have been homeless at 19, so I know what it is like. I was lucky and had my parents, move me to Spain to live with them. Don't live beyond your means. No one is empressed. My clothes are Walmart and JC Penny. You control your financial destiny. Read a poem/prayer, "Desiderata". Reflect on each word. "Strive to be happy".

[Vic Romano]

Originally Posted by jd433

Here we go again. It looks like another recession is on it's way. Vegas was hit very hard during the last recession. I see a lot of the same elements in place once again today just like they were 12 years ago when the last recession hit. Vegas once again has an overpriced housing market and still hasn't diversified away from tourism and gambling.
If you have lived in Vegas for a while you know what happened last time. What will be different this time?
Is history going to repeat its self?

Why are you posting here Chicken Little? Trying to create a market for distressed properties that you can buy? Trying to create a market where you can increase your commissions?

//www.city-data.com/forum/gener...t-hardest.html

//www.city-data.com/forum/gener...ts-coming.html

[RationalExpectations]

Originally Posted by Vic Romano

Why are you posting here Chicken Little? Trying to create a market for distressed properties that you can buy? Trying to create a market where you can increase your commissions?

//www.city-data.com/forum/gener...t-hardest.html

//www.city-data.com/forum/gener...ts-coming.html

Good catch. The OP is just another troll post.

[JonathanLB]

OP, you are living in a fantasy world. I don’t know if you’re poor and thus clueless about the value of a dollar but the housing market in Vegas is very inexpensive. You can’t find any other major city on the West Coast with such cheap housing. It’s also evident you’re clueless about the housing bust last time around and what caused it, because if you think it’s easy to get a mortgage in 2019, you’re wrong.

Also, you’re wrong, Vegas has diversified. A $600 million Google facility broke ground this summer in Henderson. Distribution facilities for Fanatics and Amazon sit in North Las Vegas - virtually all returns on the West Coast ship back to Amazon in Vegas, haven’t you noticed that? The city has two sports teams making it home by 2020. More tech companies have opened their doors. Downtown has grown as well. Of course tourism still reigns, and always will, but that’s no different than Wall Street and the financial companies dominating NYC. Every city has some area of specialization especially if you want to have a world class city that’s actually known for something.

There aren’t any substantial signs of a recession coming, by the way. You can always find one sign of something and it’s not always right. There may be a slowdown, there may be a dip, but I’m also assuming you’re young because 2008 doesn’t just happen every decade. That’s a once in 50-80 years type of thing. That was very, very bad.

[jd433]

If you noticed, on the national poll the CD members voted that LAS VEGAS would be the hardest hit by a recession. This is a legitimate question. I am looking for a place to go and Vegas is near the top of the list. I am VERY concerned about buying a house in Vegas right now because the last time prices were this high it was right before a huge recession. I would not like to buy a house and then 2 years later it's only worth half of what I paid for it. IS that a fair concern? Well it certainly is not an unfounded concern. Especially when this very same thing just occurred 10 years ago. BTW Im not from Texas I lived in Phoenix before that. I came here 11 years ago because of the last recession. Phoenix took a huge hit during the last recession.

Originally Posted by Vic Romano

Why are you posting here Chicken Little? Trying to create a market for distressed properties that you can buy? Trying to create a market where you can increase your commissions?

//www.city-data.com/forum/gener...t-hardest.html

//www.city-data.com/forum/gener...ts-coming.html

[Prosze]

Originally Posted by jd433

If you noticed, on the national poll the CD members voted that LAS VEGAS would be the hardest hit by a recession. This is a legitimate question. I am looking for a place to go and Vegas is near the top of the list. I am VERY concerned about buying a house in Vegas right now because the last time prices were this high it was right before a huge recession. I would not like to buy a house and then 2 years later it's only worth half of what I paid for it. IS that a fair concern? Well it certainly is not an unfounded concern. Especially when this very same thing just occurred 10 years ago. BTW Im not from Texas I lived in Phoenix before that. I came here 11 years ago because of the last recession. Phoenix took a huge hit during the last recession.

If you are buying and planning on staying in it for a while it shouldn't be a problem. Just don't buy more house than you can afford in case isht hits the fan.