[KoNgFooCj]

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/local...7405deab4.html

Housing prices are approaching an all time high. What will happen in the valley? Changes? Will it cause more people to move here? How far will prices drop?

[Drkness]

Hopefully it crashes, It seems as if everyone is banking on Cannabis & The Stadium but i doubt that will be enough to prevent the housing bubble from bursting. I personally would LOVEEEEE seeing prices drop below 200k, As it stands i'm seeing a lot of the same RE patterns as Colorado post-legalization.

[longviewJoe]

I am not sure why people hope it crashes. I wonder if some of the people who hope it crashes are ones who have been calling the market over-heated for 3 or 4 years so they want to be right... eventually. Lol. I know some others are kicking themselves they didn't buy in 2011-2012 at the bottom so they want a second chance at that.

The house I just bought sold for $1.3 in 2005ish and I just paid under a mil and it's remodeled and move-in ready. So the average house may be nearing all time highs but not all houses.

I hope for less fluctuation in our market. Mellow peaks and valleys!

[lvmensch]

RJ did an article recently...

https://www.reviewjournal.com/busine...-peak-1869168/

While the median selling price is approaching its all time high of $315,000 that is in period economics. As the RJ article points out...

***********************************
Moreover, that $5,000 gap is bigger than it appears. Adjusting for inflation, the peak price was about $398,300 in today’s dollars.
***********************************

So we still have a ways to go. The existing market also does not resemble the prior bubble. None of the games then common are in play.

[Tek_Freek]

Originally Posted by Drkness

Hopefully it crashes, It seems as if everyone is banking on Cannabis & The Stadium but i doubt that will be enough to prevent the housing bubble from bursting. I personally would LOVEEEEE seeing prices drop below 200k, As it stands i'm seeing a lot of the same RE patterns as Colorado post-legalization.

If the bubble bursts cannabis and the stadium will nothing to do with it as it will be nationwide. People in any state except NV don't care about them. Some of us here don't either.

[ddrhazy]

Not going to burst. Just remain flat. Increased labor costs translates to increased new home price so there's not much downward force on new builds on resale inventory.

[RationalExpectations]

One of the fundamental lessons in economics is that it is exceedingly difficult -- make that exceedingly difficult squared -- to tell if you are in a bubble, or this is just one point in time on the way to future gains. The only reliable, repeatable method to forecast the popping of a bubble is to look in the rear view mirror and say "wow; that looks like a bubble because it did, in fact, pop." You can't do it looking through the windshield; only through the rear view mirror.

Indeed, it isn't clear what exactly a bubble means. Because in aggregate Savings = Investment, to say there is a bubble in the price of one asset class (e.g., residential real estate) means either there is:

• An excess of savings funding an increase in the price of residential real estate, or
• A negative bubble (prices too low) in some other asset class so $ has been allocated to residential real estate, driving up its price

-- or a combination of the two.

Does anyone think we have an excess of savings in the USA? No; I didn't think so. That leaves the other option: a negative bubble (prices too low) in a different asset class. What might that other asset class be? Stocks? Does anyone think the price of equities is too low? No; I didn't think so. Bonds? Does anyone think bonds are underpriced? No; I didn't think so. Private equity? Government debt? International equities? International debt?

Maybe we are experiencing a bubble of sorts in residential real estate. Only time will tell - check back in, say, 2024. Only in the future can we be certain if there was a residential real estate bubble in October of 2019.

[Cold Warrior]

The real estate market is going to crash !!! (say those who neglected to buy in 2012)

[strato58]

IMHO we have been in an upward market for about 12 years which is a long time and a drop might occur. I don't think it will be as bad as the last bubble because we don't have predatory lending going on and we don't have another Lehman Brothers situation. So there could and most likely will be some decline but nothing like the last time. I'm finally getting ready and hope to be out in NV in 2020 and plan on renting for a while just so I know where I want to purchase and to see if the market has some decline occur over the next 2 or 3 years.

[jghorton]

The RE market bubble didn't burst in 2007-09 (or any other time) because "housing prices" were too high. Out-of-control housing prices in 07/08 were a result of out-of-control bank lending practices. Beyond that, housing prices were on an upward trend with an occasional adjustment flattening - for decades.

The biggest fear of a RE market crash is among younger folks whose housing experience is pretty much limited to the last 15-years or so. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen again, but, high housing prices are only a symptom.