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Old 04-07-2020, 08:41 PM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
12,908 posts, read 27,995,060 times
Reputation: 5057

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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasfan1985 View Post
Some people don't believe the Strip is opening back up to July. If you really think this thing dies off in a few weeks and goes away, I have a bridge to Alaska to sell you.

So many people in Vegas are in denial about this whole thing because they want to get back to their life of party and sin. I get that, but unfortunately that's not happening for a long time.
I think that it peaks at the end of April, early May... I think we are going to be in this till at least July..
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:55 PM
 
265 posts, read 204,820 times
Reputation: 412
Quote:
Originally Posted by airics View Post
I think that it peaks at the end of April, early May... I think we are going to be in this till at least July..
You are absolutely right.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:31 PM
 
848 posts, read 648,249 times
Reputation: 672
Quote:
Originally Posted by equid0x View Post
Well, the problem I have is that so far, the actuals aren't at all meeting the projections. In fact, they look just like seasonal flu on any other year.

I would expect that we begin exceeding flu season numbers first before taking drastic steps like crashing the Nevada economy and putting 50% of the state population out of a job. But I guess that's just me and my conservative approach.
I agree. Not only are the actual numbers not meeting projections, they are not even in the ballpark in many cases. I took a screen capture of the IHME forecast for the United States on April 3rd. It projected the United States would need 262,092 hospital beds, 39,727 ICU beds, and 31,782 ventilators. Today, April 7th, it says the United States needs 140,823 hospital beds, 29,210 ICU beds, and 24,828 ventilators. Projected deaths by August 4th were 93,531 on April 3rd; now projected deaths are 81,766.

New York's projections were worse. On April 3rd, IHME projected 76,130 hospital beds, 11,782 ICU beds, and 9,427 ventilators would be needed. As of today, IHME now projects 25,486 hospital beds, 6,664 ICU beds, and 5,664 ventilators. Per covidtracking.com, however, there currently are 17,493 people hospitalized in New York with 4,593 people in ICU.

Finally, in looking at Nevada's data, IHME's projections on April 3rd indicated Nevada would need 2,763 hospital beds, 415 ICU beds, and 332 ventilators. Today, IHME projects Nevada will eventually need 2,490 hospital beds, 483 ICU beds, and 411 ventilators. Furthermore, IHME projected that today Nevada would need 1,273 hospital beds, 216 ICU beds, and 183 ventilators. Per covidtracking.com, there are only 282 people hospitalized in Nevada today. IHME projected that as of today there would be 109 deaths; covidtracking.com shows 58 deaths.

While it is obviously good news that the projections significantly overestimated many of the metrics, it is highly disturbing that this model is still being relied upon to make policy decisions regarding the economy. I believe individuals in low-risk demographics should be able to get back to their daily routines with reasonable precautions to start while those in high-risk demographics should continue to take extra precautions to protect their health such as staying at home. To continue on the current path is inhumane and is not justifiable based on the actual data.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:39 PM
 
Location: Henderson, NV
1,073 posts, read 1,043,681 times
Reputation: 2961
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasfan1985 View Post
So many people in Vegas are in denial about this whole thing because they want to get back to their life of party and sin.
LOL. Most parents would give up partying and sin just to get CCSD to take their kids back.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:41 PM
 
265 posts, read 204,820 times
Reputation: 412
Quote:
Originally Posted by WVREDLEG View Post
LOL. Most parents would give up partying and sin just to get CCSD to take their kids back.
What a time to be a childless parent and finally the tables have turned. Now those who don't have kids look like geniuses.
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:16 PM
 
848 posts, read 648,249 times
Reputation: 672
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ial-tweetstorm
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:26 PM
 
848 posts, read 648,249 times
Reputation: 672
Japan also is not locking their cities down: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Abe...Japan-s-cities
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:30 PM
 
1,927 posts, read 1,057,886 times
Reputation: 880
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasfan1985 View Post
Some people don't believe the Strip is opening back up to July. If you really think this thing dies off in a few weeks and goes away, I have a bridge to Alaska to sell you.

So many people in Vegas are in denial about this whole thing because they want to get back to their life of party and sin. I get that, but unfortunately that's not happening for a long time.
I don't think its ever going away which is exactly why its silly to close everything down.

I just drove home by way of the strip after delivering some groceries to a friend. Circus-Circus had ALL the lights off and looked creepy as hell. A number of other properties were also semi or mostly dark. If you haven't driven down there to have a look, Wynn/Encore has room lights turned on in the shape of a heart and the words #VegasStrong and several other properties had lights on the shape of hearts as well.
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:33 PM
EA
 
Location: Las Vegas
6,791 posts, read 7,117,601 times
Reputation: 7580
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ial-tweetstorm
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:41 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas
2,880 posts, read 2,807,706 times
Reputation: 2465
Quote:
Originally Posted by equid0x View Post
Why is everyone terrified of the flu?

Instant testing? Quarantine rooms?

You've got to be kidding!
What do you propose?

How many died last season from the flu? Around 34,000 people.

How many will die from coronavirus this year?

That should help your answer.
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