[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

That's with social distancing. Without it everyone in the peak that can't get a ventilator dies. I saw today a doctor explain the numbers and the odds are 1 in 50 won't be able to get a ventilator. That number is scary. These are the preventable deaths. Italy has been seeing 600+ people die a day. Spain just saw 700+ people die in a day.

I'd argue they are not preventable. One of the points I've been trying to make all along is that the hospitals don't have nearly enough capacity. It doesn't really matter what you do, because the hospitals were not built to handle this type of influx. The same thing happened during SARS and H1N1, but we didn't have a nationwide meltdown over it.

Nobody is going to spend the money to build out huge hospital complexes that will be empty in a few months. Arguably, if you really want to increase capacity, at least where Las Vegas is concerned, you start equipping/converting hotel rooms to hospital space.

At least that would put back to work a certain segment of the population and give the casinos a reason to at least partially reopen as well as employ auxiliary services companies. I'm willing to bet hospital rooms go for a bit higher rate per night than vacation suites. The deserted Lucky Dragon building might be a start.

When the flood is over, renovate and convert them all back to hotel rooms. Makes a great cover story for advertising, too.

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by equid0x

I think you've completely missed the point.

We've had a worse outbreak before, and we didn't shut everything down. That's the point.

Which outbreak?

SARS was relatively benign because of the high death rate, the virus didn't get a chance to infect other hosts, it basically wrote its own death sentence. That's the main reason it disappeared.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

Which outbreak?

SARS was relatively benign because of the high death rate, the virus didn't get a chance to infect other hosts, it basically wrote its own death sentence. That's the main reason it disappeared.

Swine Flu

[OmegaSupreme]

These (not so fancy) graphs were created by a friend of mine using available data and some projections which I concur with. There is some context behind all this such as assumptions that the lockdown in Italy will start to show results very soon.





Edited to add, I sincerely hope the projection for the US is completely off, and nowhere near as bad.

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by equid0x

I'd argue they are not preventable. One of the points I've been trying to make all along is that the hospitals don't have nearly enough capacity. It doesn't really matter what you do, because the hospitals were not built to handle this type of influx. The same thing happened during SARS and H1N1, but we didn't have a nationwide meltdown over it.

Nobody is going to spend the money to build out huge hospital complexes that will be empty in a few months. Arguably, if you really want to increase capacity, at least where Las Vegas is concerned, you start equipping/converting hotel rooms to hospital space.

At least that would put back to work a certain segment of the population and give the casinos a reason to at least partially reopen as well as employ auxiliary services companies. I'm willing to bet hospital rooms go for a bit higher rate per night than vacation suites. The deserted Lucky Dragon building might be a start.

When the flood is over, renovate and convert them all back to hotel rooms. Makes a great cover story for advertising, too.

I think conference rooms could be used for that purpose (make shift hospitals) but not sure if they are easy to clean/sanitize. That is one of the requirements for hastily converting a space for that use.

[Merrily Gather]

Originally Posted by equid0x

I'd argue they are not preventable. One of the points I've been trying to make all along is that the hospitals don't have nearly enough capacity. It doesn't really matter what you do, because the hospitals were not built to handle this type of influx. The same thing happened during SARS and H1N1, but we didn't have a nationwide meltdown over it.

Nobody is going to spend the money to build out huge hospital complexes that will be empty in a few months. Arguably, if you really want to increase capacity, at least where Las Vegas is concerned, you start equipping/converting hotel rooms to hospital space.

At least that would put back to work a certain segment of the population and give the casinos a reason to at least partially reopen as well as employ auxiliary services companies. I'm willing to bet hospital rooms go for a bit higher rate per night than vacation suites. The deserted Lucky Dragon building might be a start.

When the flood is over, renovate and convert them all back to hotel rooms. Makes a great cover story for advertising, too.

It's not really debatable. They choose the path of mitigating the deaths instead of letting it run wild and collapsing healthcare systems. To do nothing would mean a million people die vs 200,000 with social distancing practices and closing places people gather, and our hospitals may be overwhelmed but still have a fighting chance.

Some of the practices you mentioned are being implemented in hot spots like NYC, Washington and California. They're setting up beds in tents in parking lots and parks. Leasing out motels and hotels for beds. Even two Navy ships are in route to NYC and California for much needed beds. They've brought in refrigerator trucks for their dead. Waiving the usual requirements so foreign doctors can treat the influx of patients. It's all hands on deck. I don't know if we'll get to that point here. COVID 19 is not H1N1 or SARS though.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

I think conference rooms could be used for that purpose (make shift hospitals) but not sure if they are easy to clean/sanitize. That is one of the requirements for hastily converting a space for that use.

If Vegas can renovate entire hotel rooms overnight (and we do), I do not see why we can't just rip out carpeting and furniture, and have tile down and a coat of paint by morning. What else really needs to be done? The idea would be to use the rooms as accessory space for less risky patients, who will be in the majority, so we can save hospital space for the more serious cases. These rooms already have plumbing, electrical, lighting, air conditioning, networking, a television system, and individual bathrooms. Showers could either be converted to handicapped stalls or temporarily covered with drywall and turned into storage. The bathrooms probably don't even actually need anything other than that.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

It's not really debatable. They choose the path of mitigating the deaths instead of letting it run wild and collapsing healthcare systems. To do nothing would mean a million people die vs 200,000 with social distancing practices and closing places people gather, and our hospitals may be overwhelmed but still have a fighting chance.

Some of the practices you mentioned are being implemented in hot spots like NYC, Washington and California. They're setting up beds in tents in parking lots and parks. Leasing out motels and hotels for beds. Even two Navy ships are in route to NYC and California for much needed beds. They've brought in refrigerator trucks for their dead. Waiving the usual requirements so foreign doctors can treat the influx of patients. It's all hands on deck. I don't know if we'll get to that point here. COVID 19 is not H1N1 or SARS though.

The CDC's own projections are 1.7 Million dead in 18 months.

[Merrily Gather]

Originally Posted by equid0x

The CDC's own projections are 1.7 Million dead in 18 months.

I'm talking about recent reports for the US. Some estimates are as high as 2.2 million deaths but you get the idea. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/w...irus-news.html

Take some time and read up on flattening the curve. Then maybe you'll really understand the numbers. We can build the temporary facilities but where does the medical staff and supplies like ventilators, masks and PPE come from in time? We just don't have it for a peak when 1 in 50 get a ventilator.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

I'm talking about recent reports for the US. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...-news.amp.html

Take some time and read up on flattening the curve. Then maybe you'll really understand the numbers. We can build the temporary facilities but where does the medical staff and supplies like ventilators, masks and PPE come from in time? We just don't have it for a peak when 1 in 50 get a ventilator.

And we never will. That's the point.

The US doesn't have a factory infrastructure left standing to convert to production of these products.

If we need it now, it will have to be built. China isn't going to help us.

Medical staff is a whole other can of worms.