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Old 01-17-2021, 10:47 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
340 posts, read 214,413 times
Reputation: 985

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I know with the CARES act I am guessing anyone who lost their job due to Covid deferred their mortgage payments and prevented foreclosure, which helped keep the real estate market from crashing. I am also going to guess that in the last few months some of those people (maybe a lot of them) chose to sell and move on, since there doesn't seem to be a shortage of buyers stepping up to buy those properties. I am thinking about buying a home in LV since I may finally be moving there this year, but I am not sure if I should wait or if prices are going to continue to rise? When the CARES act expires there may be very few foreclosures if people in trouble unloaded those properties already.

What does everyone think? I know there's still a steady stream of people moving to Phoenix and LV from California so I don't think the market will crash at this point, but it's hard to tell if it's going to keep going up like it has been. On a side note, it seems the quality of the new homes being built this time around are a lot better than what was being built in the early 2000's, based on the research I have been doing online. I've been looking at some of the new builds around Henderson and SW Vegas in the $300's and some look pretty nice from what I can tell.
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Old 01-17-2021, 11:01 AM
 
Location: Dallas, TX and Las Vegas, NV
7,219 posts, read 6,231,716 times
Reputation: 16430
I don’t think anyone can aptly predict what the real estate market will do. Buy a home when you are ready to buy. I’m not familiar with new builds. We bought a place for $485K in 2017 and sold it in August for $605K. We did spend money on landscaping, driveway pavers and a firepit and replaced house HVAC and hot tub pump. After all the real estate expenses and deducting for our improvements, we netted about $50K in 3 years. So, in a rapidly escalating market, our “profit” was about $17K per year and if you divide that into months, its not such a dramatic growth number if you are deciding between buying how and next summer. Better to wait than to make a purchase taking the risk of life pulling the rug out under you and changing your plans.
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Old 01-17-2021, 11:21 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
340 posts, read 214,413 times
Reputation: 985
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldKlas View Post
I’m not familiar with new builds. We bought a place for $485K in 2017 and sold it in August for $605K. We did spend money on landscaping, driveway pavers and a firepit and replaced house HVAC and hot tub pump.
That's a good idea, personally I think backyard landscaping and upgrading the patio adds a lot of value. I like relaxing outside and bbq'ing so if there's nothing in the back but a small concrete slab and dirt it's a negative. On the other hand a great backyard will sometimes offset any negatives with the house itself. That's one of my complaints with the new builds at least the price range I am looking in there's nothing but dirt in the back.... even some basic gravel and one or two desert plants would be minimal expense and make it look a lot more inviting than raw dirt!
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Old 01-17-2021, 01:20 PM
 
222 posts, read 109,077 times
Reputation: 475
My take FWIW;

1. There will not be any mass foreclosures. There will be enough gov programs to prevent that from happening, which will not flood supply of inventory. Those that run into problems can still sell their house if needed due to job loss.
2. There was very little building in LV from 2008-2013/14, which we are now seeing a result of less supply of overall starter homes, which is a depressant on supply of homes overall in relationship to population growth.
3. Blackrock and other large Wall Street funds bought thousands of homes to rent. These will not ever come back onto the market for starter homes for people.
4. Price appreciation like we have seen over the last year causes further reduction in supply, no incentive to sell unless you really need to since you’re going to buy at a higher price. This also decrease supply.
5. Migration patterns will continue to have people move -
Either retirement, able to work from home or other cost of living reasons relative to higher priced markets they are fleeing from.
6. Millennials are now entering the market at a much higher rate than we have seen in the past and as cohort, still have lots of runway left to buy.
7. Money will be cheap and mortgages will still be low for at least through 2021, demand for houses will follow accordingly.
8. The economy is extremely bifurcated, the people who are in professional jobs are doing well and will continue to, they have the means and stability to buy. People who work on the strip are not the current buyers.

In short, less supply and steady or increased demand will cause higher prices for at least
2021. If interest rates go up to 4.5 percent by 2022. There will definitely be a decrease in demand and less price appreciation or slight depreciation. I doubt that will happen as the economy continues to recover for certain segments of the population dependent on hospitality and dining.
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Old 01-17-2021, 02:45 PM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
12,776 posts, read 25,564,464 times
Reputation: 4860
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dom Cobb View Post
My take FWIW;

1. There will not be any mass foreclosures. There will be enough gov programs to prevent that from happening, which will not flood supply of inventory. Those that run into problems can still sell their house if needed due to job loss.
2. There was very little building in LV from 2008-2013/14, which we are now seeing a result of less supply of overall starter homes, which is a depressant on supply of homes overall in relationship to population growth.
3. Blackrock and other large Wall Street funds bought thousands of homes to rent. These will not ever come back onto the market for starter homes for people.
4. Price appreciation like we have seen over the last year causes further reduction in supply, no incentive to sell unless you really need to since you’re going to buy at a higher price. This also decrease supply.
5. Migration patterns will continue to have people move -
Either retirement, able to work from home or other cost of living reasons relative to higher priced markets they are fleeing from.
6. Millennials are now entering the market at a much higher rate than we have seen in the past and as cohort, still have lots of runway left to buy.
7. Money will be cheap and mortgages will still be low for at least through 2021, demand for houses will follow accordingly.
8. The economy is extremely bifurcated, the people who are in professional jobs are doing well and will continue to, they have the means and stability to buy. People who work on the strip are not the current buyers.

In short, less supply and steady or increased demand will cause higher prices for at least
2021. If interest rates go up to 4.5 percent by 2022. There will definitely be a decrease in demand and less price appreciation or slight depreciation. I doubt that will happen as the economy continues to recover for certain segments of the population dependent on hospitality and dining.
this is the perfect post.. 100% agreed

the homes will still sell, but not to the strip worker, because most likely they are out of a job...
its going to be interesting what happens to the stock market and such.. I predict that it will not be increasing much if any in 2021. I think that there will be a downturn.
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Old 01-17-2021, 03:45 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas
340 posts, read 214,413 times
Reputation: 985
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dom Cobb View Post
My take FWIW;

1. There will not be any mass foreclosures. There will be enough gov programs to prevent that from happening, which will not flood supply of inventory. Those that run into problems can still sell their house if needed due to job loss.
2. There was very little building in LV from 2008-2013/14, which we are now seeing a result of less supply of overall starter homes, which is a depressant on supply of homes overall in relationship to population growth.
3. Blackrock and other large Wall Street funds bought thousands of homes to rent. These will not ever come back onto the market for starter homes for people.
4. Price appreciation like we have seen over the last year causes further reduction in supply, no incentive to sell unless you really need to since you’re going to buy at a higher price. This also decrease supply.
5. Migration patterns will continue to have people move -
Either retirement, able to work from home or other cost of living reasons relative to higher priced markets they are fleeing from.
6. Millennials are now entering the market at a much higher rate than we have seen in the past and as cohort, still have lots of runway left to buy.
7. Money will be cheap and mortgages will still be low for at least through 2021, demand for houses will follow accordingly.
8. The economy is extremely bifurcated, the people who are in professional jobs are doing well and will continue to, they have the means and stability to buy. People who work on the strip are not the current buyers.

In short, less supply and steady or increased demand will cause higher prices for at least
2021. If interest rates go up to 4.5 percent by 2022. There will definitely be a decrease in demand and less price appreciation or slight depreciation. I doubt that will happen as the economy continues to recover for certain segments of the population dependent on hospitality and dining.
All very good points. I am hoping later in the year as vaccines get rolled out and more people feel comfortable traveling again that the Vegas economy will really start to be improve. The savings rate is the highest it's been in years and lots of people all over are just waiting to get out and have some fun and spend (myself included), so it could improve very very quickly.
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Old 01-17-2021, 04:45 PM
 
569 posts, read 136,610 times
Reputation: 695
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dom Cobb View Post
My take FWIW;

1. There will not be any mass foreclosures. There will be enough gov programs to prevent that from happening, which will not flood supply of inventory. Those that run into problems can still sell their house if needed due to job loss.
2. There was very little building in LV from 2008-2013/14, which we are now seeing a result of less supply of overall starter homes, which is a depressant on supply of homes overall in relationship to population growth.
3. Blackrock and other large Wall Street funds bought thousands of homes to rent. These will not ever come back onto the market for starter homes for people.
4. Price appreciation like we have seen over the last year causes further reduction in supply, no incentive to sell unless you really need to since you’re going to buy at a higher price. This also decrease supply.
5. Migration patterns will continue to have people move -
Either retirement, able to work from home or other cost of living reasons relative to higher priced markets they are fleeing from.
6. Millennials are now entering the market at a much higher rate than we have seen in the past and as cohort, still have lots of runway left to buy.
7. Money will be cheap and mortgages will still be low for at least through 2021, demand for houses will follow accordingly.
8. The economy is extremely bifurcated, the people who are in professional jobs are doing well and will continue to, they have the means and stability to buy. People who work on the strip are not the current buyers.

In short, less supply and steady or increased demand will cause higher prices for at least
2021. If interest rates go up to 4.5 percent by 2022. There will definitely be a decrease in demand and less price appreciation or slight depreciation. I doubt that will happen as the economy continues to recover for certain segments of the population dependent on hospitality and dining.

Excellent points, honestly I had to goolge the rarely used bifurcated. Splintered would have been my choice of works, but your assessment and word is better than mine.

The market was good going into '20 , probably coming off a high trending into a short-term flatting period. There was a lot of momentum with the Raiders coming to town and most likely the A's will also be here in the next 5 years. The pipeline of CA transfers will continue in good numbers for years to come. I think the long term prognosis is good.
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Old 01-17-2021, 04:56 PM
 
2,034 posts, read 3,641,995 times
Reputation: 2445
Dom Cobb covered a lot of it.

The people I know buying (or upgrading) are mostly dual income professionals who are making 150-250k as a couple and low interest rates are letting them buy stuff in the 400-800 range and have it be relatively affordable.

Vegas is still a fairly cheap market compared to Denver and SLC which I consider somewhat similar. Of course worlds cheaper than Seattle, CA, etc. If work from home sticks then I predict we will continue to see rising home prices for awhile.

Rising interest rates would dampen things but I don't see that on the horizon at the moment.

Foreclosures don't seem likely as rising prices means many homeowners have equity and will sell if they are in a cash crunch. And the govt seems more willing to step in and prevent us from being in a 2010 scenario.
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Old 01-17-2021, 10:45 PM
 
Location: ☀️
1,286 posts, read 1,139,515 times
Reputation: 1501
Which homebuilder(s) are you considering going with if you don't mind me asking?
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Old 01-18-2021, 03:44 AM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
12,776 posts, read 25,564,464 times
Reputation: 4860
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasrollingstone View Post
The pipeline of CA transfers will continue in good numbers for years to come. I think the long term prognosis is good.
That’s what will make the prognosis bad.
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