[hard888]

Hello everyone,

Just an introduction to get formalities out of the way. I'm James and looking for properties out in Vegas. At this point it's more of a vacation get away home rather than an investment to resell. Although I certain wouldn't want to take a bath should that time come many many years down the line (if it comes at all).

Basically I wanted the knowledge of the local experts to chime in.

Although I would like to know the market trend/scenario for Vegas as a whole, I would also like to focus on the area in Henderson. I'm also specific on these being single family homes.

I've came across a new development which hasn't sold out by any means. In fact just a hair over 10% of the lots that have been sold. Seems like there's still 30+ lots left over. The developer also won't build until a lot has been picked out and sold. Wondering if this is to not pressure themselves into having standing inventory? Or is a parcel lot already consider as such?

The homes range from $1M~$3M. My question is, how are the homes in this price category doing? With talks of recession, foreclosure, a bad (depending on which side of the coin you're on) RE market, are there consession sales to be had?

I'm seeing builders for other communities trying to blow out inventory by slashing $100K or more and figured the same for this project. Although I am expecting more since there must be greater margin for homes costing more than $1M. Am I right in inference?

The way I see it, it will take quite some time to move 30+ lots particularly since each home + lot will be sold for $1M+. In this RE climate, I would imagine it would take at least 1~3 years to even sell 50%. And that might be optimistic.

Would love any feedback on this particular issue and how the market will fare in the coming year. I know from other threads people are saying it's a good time to buy foreclosures and whatnot, but the particular home category I am refering to is slightly different from that market.

Thank you.

[Daddys///M3]

I would tend to agree with your general thoughts on this market segment. I'm seeing homes that very easily sold for $1mm+ a couple of years ago listed under $500K as they are bank owned now. The homes I've seen are in desireable neighborhoods as well. There is just too much inventory on the market and most of the properties that are moving are well below that price point and more likely around $150K-$250K. Of course some builders and sellers are still pretty unrealistic as well. I've seen homeowners asking $350 a ft in this market, which is very unrealistic.

That being said, there are a few developments over $1mm that are doing very well. Blue Heron builds some very nice loft style, semi-custom homes at that price point and their first two developments sold out rather quickly. I think it was mainly due to the fact that aside from hi-rise condos, there has not really been any architecture like that in town. Very modern, very ergonomic, and very desireable IMO.

I personally would not buy in a development like the one that you mentioned with the current market climate being what it is. It is extremely likely that the home will not be worth what you paid for it once the builder starts slashing prices to move these lots. Although there is no standing inventory, you still must take into account the carrying costs for the land. If this developer cannot build out (and sell out) within 3 years then unless they are highly capitalized AND willing to lose money holding, they may sell the development to someone else to finish who will very likely not be concerned with current homeowners and their equity situations. Just my humble opinion.

[olecapt]

Pricing of the high end homes has taken little impact from all the goings on. Smaller homes on view or lake front lots are going for 500 or 600 per square foot. Large flatland acreages are going for around 300 per sf.

Price has been relatively flat since a small run up in 2004.

Current sales volumes are low - about half the five year average. There is little impact from foreclosures and such. Out of 29 million plus sales around Henderson this year 7 have been foreclosures or trustee sales. Doubt they moved anything very much.

I would not get near any development with 10% sold. Even people like Christopher and Focus are having trouble with financing. Small developments are super vulnerable. You spend 2 million on your palace and it sits there in the middle of mud lots for the next ten years. I would go for a standalone...buy your own 2.5 acres and wall it in ...or get a lot in one that is above 80%. Not bad some times as they often have the most expensive lots left...and they are hungry. So buy a great lot at a great discount...or at least a lot where both neighbors are in...

Note that the high end market here moves to its own drummer. It is relatively independent of the primary market. It never bubbled to any great degree and it has not come down to any great degree.

I have some charts about all this somewhere. If I can point them right without a lot of work I will publish them tommorrow.

[hard888]

Thanks for the feedbacks so far.

The particular development I am refering to is Canyon Edge, right off South Green Valley Parkway. Unique designs and architecture. Modern to say the least. Somewhat loft style. In any case the project has sold only 7 parcels with 2 of them being the owners themselves. I suppose that leaves 5 units that were actually "sold".

Anyways, these homes command $1.35M+ but I am starting to think that no matter how nice the homes/project may be, it still may be a long ways from selling out.

Here's the site: flash_AS_detection

If there are any further thoughts, please keep them coming.

Again I'm still one to believe that they will fall prey to the rest of the market. I was also told that even though the first phase is only for sale at this moment, that the future phases will see an increase in price. Does anyone agree with that policy? I would think that the current phases already have to be discounted just to get sold muchless try to raise the prices for future builds. Are they being "unrealistic" or do they know something I don't?

On a side note, what is everyone's view for Lake Las Vegas in general? Again, keeping in mind that this is more of a vacation home, not one that requires a commute to work. So distance to the strip isn't necessarily an issue.

Thanks again.

[hard888]

Originally Posted by olecapt

I have some charts about all this somewhere. If I can point them right without a lot of work I will publish them tommorrow.

Would appreciate that. Thank you.

[hard888]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Pricing of the high end homes has taken little impact from all the goings on. Smaller homes on view or lake front lots are going for 500 or 600 per square foot. Large flatland acreages are going for around 300 per sf.

I'm not familiar with Vegas in general. So in saying "lake front lots" are you refering to homes/land in Lake Las Vegas?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by hard888

I'm not familiar with Vegas in general. So in saying "lake front lots" are you refering to homes/land in Lake Las Vegas?

Yes. They are relatively small in number compared to the foothill places with the great views of the Valley. There are also a few million dollar homes in Desert Shores with exceptional Lake Front Locations. Not huge Lakes...then again Lake Las Vegas would be lost in Lake Mead or Lake Ontario.

Note the strip is relatively low...so you can get a good view of it from the east, south and west. The north has not gotten into the hills and may not as it is mostly in conservation districts.

There are however some excellent views to the NW and North as the valley floor rises enough for great views. Drive 215 around Centennial High School some time.

[Daddys///M3]

It seems that there are a couple of listings in the immediate vicinity that are priced between $825K and $1.99mm, so I don't think that values will necessarily be a concern unless carrying costs become one. However, there are 4 listings in the neighborhood directly across from it, so standing inventory may already be an issue from that standpoint. That being said, if the developers are telling the truth about how they were planning on selling this development then it is very possible that they calculated carrying costs into the pro-forma and as such will not be in a huge hurry to liquidate as they would likely be intent on completing said project (helps when acquiring financing for new projects) and the profit margin is already set, albeit there may be some slight variation.

Lake Las Vegas is a very nice area. I worked on quite a few homes out there back in my construction days. Golf, dining, casino, away from the hustle and bustle, and of course the lake! I'm not sure on the stats as far as REO's, NOD's, shorts, listings, median value increases or decreases, etc.

[jpk]

I think olecapt had a good suggestion when he said that for that budget you should consider Lake Las Vegas or a custom home on a large lot. Not sure where you're from, but $1M or more can buy you a lot of house in the Vegas area. I wouldn't waste that much money on a tract semi-custom home.

On the other hand, you could consider picking up a tract semi-custom home for well below $1M and put the rest into updating it to the hilt and saving the rest or putting a car in the garage. Someone above mentioned that $1M houses from a few years ago are considerably less in new developments that are suffering from the slowdown. I went this route and couldn't be happier because I love the value.

But if you're going for ultimate luxury, I think olecapt had it right

[hard888]

Olecapt, thanks for the feedback. I have considered buying a vacant lot and doing a custom build. That being said, I have to admit I did like one of the floor plans in Canyon Edge, and admittedly am somewhat lacking the experience to do a custom high end build. Canyon Edge provides a ready designed package and all that's necessary is the choice of options. It's convenient but not entirely impossible to "duplicate". So my mind is open to options.

With that in mind, what do you make of Southern Highlands Golf Club, particularly the lots available within for custom homes? I've just recently learned about it, but will still admit that I am not particuarly well versed in the area immediately outside of it. Is it much like Lake Las Vegas where by it's a nice area secluded onto itself and the area outside of it (going towards the strip) a bit more like the ghetto/undeveloped land? Are amenities such as shopping centers/supermarkets and the likes available to support such the community?

Last but not least (figured I'll ask here first since I can't call them at this hour), can one build any type of architectural design or does one need to keep in the following within Southern Highlands? Seems most of the homes there are somewhat Tuscany/Mediterranean style based, whereas I am going for more contemporary ala Canyon Edge.

Thanks.