Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Nevada > Las Vegas
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 10-15-2009, 05:51 PM
 
9,848 posts, read 8,260,922 times
Reputation: 3296

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
We approach the bottom. Not there but not a long way off. Given the way LV is structured the probability of a substantial improvement by 2010 is almost certain. We simply have too much stuff coming on line for things not to improve substantially. As well we have a new home construction industry flat on its back. So there is little competition in the resale market from new build.

There is of course the possibity that the existing crisis worsen, we end up with a full depression and it is off to the breadlines we go. In that event though it makes little difference where you are or what you do...we are all in it together when the world falls in.

There is no particular harm in waiting if it concerns you. I don't think anything substantial changes between now and spring. Volume is still holding up remarkably well and price are continuing the slow decline. Note though that the decline is the median home. I think we are seeing some pretty high stability in some neighborhoods and price ranges. I would note that we are beginning to see clusters of sales in certain neighborhoods. That tends to indicate that the lenders are drawing lines in the sand and attempting to hold the price there. Will it work? Ask again in a couple of months. There sure are a mess of places though where the price won't go below $100 psf. Below 200K it is still a challenge but I suspect we will see average prices stabilizing as the middle and the high end settle down. The low end will be the last to settle.

I would pay attention to the ongoing pricing. I still think it will turn around over a 6 month or so period as the foreclosures begin to decline. And any substantial tampering with the foreclosures by the government or government sponsored program could turn things around rather suddenly. A lot of ths stuff is perception and relatively minor changes can move things a whole lot. The mere fear of an uptick may be all it takes to create one.
I'm sure the expected second stock market crash will have NO EFFECT on Vegas or other vacations spots.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-15-2009, 06:50 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,443,117 times
Reputation: 493
Quote:
Originally Posted by RCCCB View Post
I'm sure the expected second stock market crash will have NO EFFECT on Vegas or other vacations spots.
More importantly, the post you quoted is 13 months old. It's good to see it again in all its prescient glory.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2009, 07:24 PM
 
Location: Toledo, OH
1,725 posts, read 3,453,657 times
Reputation: 1277
If I make a prediction today that in a year the DOW will be at 13,000 or at 8,000 would you think that I am right on one or the other?
Unfortunately I'm hooked on CNBC (TV and Satellite Radio) and listening to the guests they have on the show, albeit a general statement, I've come to the conlusion that we will be at either 13K or 8K for the Dow. But depends on what expert guest is right... No wonder the average person has a hard time on deciding to buy, to invest, etc... I'm that Average Guy!!!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2009, 07:38 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,103,442 times
Reputation: 2661
Actually sounds pretty much on...

Sure the bank suicide was missed. But unbelievable events are outside the pale.

But on balance what advice there is wrong?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2009, 07:52 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,443,117 times
Reputation: 493
It was impossible to see it coming.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2009, 08:11 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,103,442 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
It was impossible to see it coming.
The lender suicide?

You normally project that profit making organizations will suddenly decide to pour billions down a sewer?

The Tony S school of investing...projecting when the billions go down the drain so you can suck a few up as they go past.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2009, 08:48 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,443,117 times
Reputation: 493
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
The lender suicide?

You normally project that profit making organizations will suddenly decide to pour billions down a sewer?

The Tony S school of investing...projecting when the billions go down the drain so you can suck a few up as they go past.
You and I have had this discussion before. Why would you try to ascribe rational behavior to a market on the way down, when it displayed very little rational behavior on the way up? The lender suicide you refer to happened well in advance of them being forced to dump inventory en masse. The suicide occured when they were underwriting option-ARM, no doc, zero down loans, without any regard to valuations.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-20-2009, 07:17 PM
 
9,855 posts, read 10,388,569 times
Reputation: 2881
I heard someone say today that home prices in Las Vegas were expected to do drop another 20% next year.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-20-2009, 07:33 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,103,442 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by pommysmommy View Post
I heard someone say today that home prices in Las Vegas were expected to do drop another 20% next year.
I believe you heard someone say that.

It could happen.

We could also be hit by a meteorite and vaporized.

You need to know the probability of the event.

Neither are likely.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-20-2009, 07:35 PM
 
9,855 posts, read 10,388,569 times
Reputation: 2881
I realize that and I am not shopping for a retirement home right now because of the crazy market in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is where we will land but I am in the wait and see mode right now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Settings
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2020 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Nevada > Las Vegas
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top