[Rebecca40]

We are almost certainly moving to LV this summer for a 2.5 year time span. We originally planned to rent, but since we have multiple pets, want to be choosy about school district, and wish to avoid any overly oppressive HOAs, we are now wondering if it would be better to buy with the market seeminly near the bottom (I'm not a real estate guru, so this is a huge, uneducated guess here) and then sell when we leave in 2.5 to 3 years. We are not looking to make a huge profit, but will need the property to appreciate enough to break even and cover any realtor expenses. Are we being stupid to even consider this option? We have good credit and shouldn't have a problem getting a mortgage on a decent house in a decent neighborhood (not looking for upscale, just safe and clean, with good schools). We haven't been renters in many years and don't look forward to some of the hassles associated with it. We typically prefer to own the home we are living in, but we don't want to make a stupid financial mistake. Thanks in advance for any insight from the locals.

[uncle_el]

seems to me that many local realtors think we're at the bottom.

i think when you factor in average income, and the average home price... and where the average home price should be relative to average income (2-3 times your salary)... prices still have a bit to go down.

of course, those are just my thoughts.

i do know people who have bought within the last year (2008) and say that their home has lost a bit of value- this is both new construction, and resale.

at this point, i think its safest to say that no one really knows (does anyone ever?). but it's probably a safe bet to say that given the current real estate market in conjunction with the overall state of economics, you'd be lucky to break even in 2.5-3 years.

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by uncle_el

seems to me that many local realtors think we're at the bottom.

i think when you factor in average income, and the average home price... and where the average home price should be relative to average income (2-3 times your salary)... prices still have a bit to go down.

of course, those are just my thoughts.

i do know people who have bought within the last year (2008) and say that their home has lost a bit of value- this is both new construction, and resale.

at this point, i think its safest to say that no one really knows (does anyone ever?). but it's probably a safe bet to say that given the current real estate market in conjunction with the overall state of economics, you'd be lucky to break even in 2.5-3 years.

Median household income in Clark County is over $60,000 a year. Median home prices are now under $180,000. I do believe that prices will continue to come down (although I can't say how much or for how long), just not for the same reasons as you as historical norms are back in effect.

That being said, even if we are at bottom 2-3 years is not enough time in my opinion to see much appreciation (I don't believe we will see 10%+ a year for a very long time), certainly not enough to think of selling and breaking even. However, if you were to rent it out and hold for the long term it might not be a bad idea. Can't say for certain not knowing your entire situation so that option may not be for you, but the 2-3 year timeline is just too optimistic.

[jjameson922]

Even if, for the sake of argument, you assume there will be no depreciation or appreciation over the next 2.5 years, take the price point you would be paying and factor in the real estate commission for selling. That has to be somewhere between 5-7%. On the sale of a $200K house, that amounts to $10,000 - $14,000. If you factor your property taxes in at 1%, that also amounts to a nonrecoverable loss of $4,000. Factor in HOA, SID, OR LID fees, your become more negative. Otoh, renting has all the pitfalls you mentioned plus nothing to show for those monthly payments. In previous times, the rule of thumb was a homeowner needed to own the house for 2 years before they could sell it with commission and just break even on that.

[airics]

i think the bottom end houses (under 150) are at the bottom... i get daily emails for homes available under 150k, everywhere but east, under 5yrs old.... about 6 months ago, i was getting 2 or 3 a day that were at 100 or under... today, maybe i get 1 a week... seems like there are more houses floating around the 130-150 range now that used to be 110-130... thats my own opinion though

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Rebecca40

We are almost certainly moving to LV this summer for a 2.5 year time span. We originally planned to rent, but since we have multiple pets, want to be choosy about school district, and wish to avoid any overly oppressive HOAs, we are now wondering if it would be better to buy with the market seeminly near the bottom (I'm not a real estate guru, so this is a huge, uneducated guess here) and then sell when we leave in 2.5 to 3 years. We are not looking to make a huge profit, but will need the property to appreciate enough to break even and cover any realtor expenses. Are we being stupid to even consider this option? We have good credit and shouldn't have a problem getting a mortgage on a decent house in a decent neighborhood (not looking for upscale, just safe and clean, with good schools). We haven't been renters in many years and don't look forward to some of the hassles associated with it. We typically prefer to own the home we are living in, but we don't want to make a stupid financial mistake. Thanks in advance for any insight from the locals.

An interesting quandary...

If you rent in Las Vegas in the class of homes hit by the foreclosures you are likely spending $300 a month or so for the privilege plus not getting any of the tax advantages. All up all in maybe $400 a month. Over 2.5 years you will be down around $12,000.

If you buy a $250,000 house and sell it in 2.5 years for what you paid for it you will be out $20,000.

So you need to correctily call whether things will be up, down or the same in 2.5 years.

If you buy well...that is a REPO well below market the probability that you will be down is small. I would think well less than 10%.

The probability that you will be up the 8% or more to offset RE commission and other costs is reasonable but not certain. Maybe 50% or around there...so a 40% probability that that you will lose between 0 and $20,000.

So the odds favor you doing OK though there is no certainty.

Note by the way you must get a good buy on a REPO or all bets are off.

Note by the way that if you buy well it will be a viable rental if you can't sell it for what you need. So you could pick up a little income and sit on it for a couple more years.

Of course if it all goes to hell all bets are off...

[Rebecca40]

Ok, my next question is, how do you find a "good" repo? Is it best to work through a realtor? We think we want to live in the far NW of the city or Summerlin areas - probably not where you see most of the repos. We have some time to work on this and still may end up renting if we find the right property to lease, but want to explore all the options.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Rebecca40

Ok, my next question is, how do you find a "good" repo? Is it best to work through a realtor? We think we want to live in the far NW of the city or Summerlin areas - probably not where you see most of the repos. We have some time to work on this and still may end up renting if we find the right property to lease, but want to explore all the options.

Summerlin will be tougher. There are some but mostly in the far west of Summerlin...out along Charleston. Tend to expensive and small lot.

NW is the likely place. Great houses out that way half off almost. Bigger homes and bigger lots.

Send me a DM with a spec if you would lile to see what is available in the MLS.

Stick to REPOs pretty hard. It is the safest way toward your 2.5 year goal.

[MR77]

Ugh... this thread is disheartening to me, but good to know. I bought a repo'd townhouse in zip 89123 back in August. It appraised for 10K more than I bought if for off the bat and since then, I cleaned it up and updated it really nice. New carpet, hardware, faucets, light fixtures, etc... So I am hoping it is worth more now than I purchased it for, but who knows since prices have still been falling for the last six months. Its hard to say because there are so many vacant / foreclosed townhouses and single family homes on my same block.

I have been very happy living here and expected to be in this house for at least 5 or 6 years but just months after I purchased, the economy tanked, my job has been in a constant state of limbo, and my life has been turned upside down. I love my job and am not sure if I'd want to stay in Las Vegas without it. I can save my job by taking a transfer to NYC, which would be a huge lifestyle change, BUT it would mean I could keep my job and in fact take an upward move in my career. Plus, my family is back east and it would be nice to be around them in their later years. With that said, I am a little excited about the prospect of a transfer.

My problem is that I feel anchored to Las Vegas because of this townhouse. How can I figure out what it is worth or how much I would be out if I was to sell it in this current market? I got into this house for very little. It was an FHA Loan with closing assistance, where the bank paid my closing costs and part of the down payment. I was able to close the deal and get into this house for about $2,300. I really like living in it, but feel like I have no better choice than to bail. I still owe 141K on it. Its a 3 bedroom sqft townhouse in Silverado Ranch. If I could get out of it and at least break even I'd be happy so I can keep my job and stick with the company I've invested so much time in. Foreclosing on the house is not an option.

There is a possibility the company I work for will buy it from me and keep it as a local place to stay for clients and employees visiting from other offices. Might be a good investment for them in the long run too, but I'd have to work all of that out with them. I'm certainly not too crazy about the idea of hanging onto it and renting it out. It would be hard to keep an eye on it from 2000 miles away and I would constantly be worrying about it. That is an option I have been still considering though.

I would appreciate any insight or creative ideas about how to approach this situation. I'm sure it is not unique to what many others are going through right now.

[Daddys///M3]

If your employer would be willing to do that it sounds like the easiest out for you. The other option is to rent and hold. I can't imagine that you could sell and break even, particularly considering that when you purchased your place basically became the latest comp. Even though it appraised for $10K above the purchase price, subsequent appraisals in the area will use the purchase price of your place as a comp. Plus with values continuing to fall as well as the REO competition in the market place I can't see how selling at break even could be an option, obviously taking commissions into consideration as well. Of course without knowing all of the facts I can't say for sure so please take my advice and analysis for what it is worth.