[ClarkGrisowld]

I live here, see plenty of news but not all. I appreciate when people post something I may have missed.

Maybe each item does not require a new thread, but real estate has been an ongoing discussion and I see nothing wrong with posting an article that adds to the discussion.

[geos]

Originally Posted by skisickie

I just think riskiest doesn't tell you anything. That article means nothing to me. So what if there are forclosures and the market goes down. Why does that make it risky for me?
I am missing something here. Or like always thinking out of the box again.

I don't know about you but most people don't enjoy seeing the value of their house go down, 10%, 20%, 30%. Those of us with the luxury to wait for a bottom are doing so. When the numbers look right we jump in.

[airics]

Originally Posted by geos

So stop reading. Since when is this for locals only? I'm tired of local whiners who are underwater blaming others for their situation. I'll go wherever I want to go without any advice or approval from you.

who am i blaming.... one house rented, doesn't matter if im under water or not.. second home foreclosure, nowhere near underwater...

[skisickie]

There has been an reo on the market where my primary residence is for over 3 yrs. Just not a good property. It will never move until it goes down and the bank is stuck on the price. If the market goes down it doesn't mean your bank will sell at the bottom. Some banks can hold those properties forever. They take the loss.
Or am I missing something.

[geos]

Originally Posted by ClarkGrisowld

Still up 31.4% since 2000, which means prices can, indeed, fall further.

I've figured we'd see 2000-2001 prices when this bottomed, but I consider the following positives for the housing sector. Note that 2003 prices are arguably "fair value", but bubbles popping always overshoot on the correction.

1) Accelerating price declines is typical of "capitulation" and usually a sign of things bottoming. But that acceleration has to run its course, so how much further is a tough one. Most likely we'll see at least early 2002 prices, on average, before all is said and done.

2) The stock market may have bottomed. That is a HUGE factor for investors. Still a long way to go to recover, but when people start seeing some gains in their portfolio they'll have some money to put to work diversifying a bit.

3) The stimulus is going to have some effect. How long or how much it impact ultimately is a tough call. But it will help.

Optimistically, I'd say 3 months from a bottom. More realistically, 6 months and possibly closer to 9 months.

There are SOOOOOO many variables it's basically a crap shoot but from everything I've read there are still many landmines waiting to go off. 8-10 million foreclosure in the pipeline, many TRILLIONS in derivative time bombs, continuing horrific unemployment numbers plus lots of unforeseeables (price of oil, war bet. Israel & Iran, terrorist attacks). I think this will be a long drawn out, painful process with no quick road back to happy times. In addition, in places like LV where prices way overshot on the way up I expect a mirror image on the way down. That's why I'd like to believe the optimistic 9 month bottom but the tea leaves I'm reading point to 12+ months.

[ClarkGrisowld]

Originally Posted by geos

That's why I'd like to believe the optimistic 9 month bottom but the tea leaves I'm reading point to 12+ months.

If you take 2001 prices, pre-bubble, and adjust for inflation that puts you out into 2003 prices. So we are already in "overshoot" territory.

Over the next 6 months or so, prices could easily be down another 15-20% at the current pace, which will put you into 2000/2001 prices. I think that would be a market bottom, which is entirely different from a recovery. There aren't any tea leaves which would suggest prices falling further than that.

A lot of the factors you mention are actually direct results of the housing bubble, not causal. The recession is mostly a credit crisis brought on by the housing collapse, both of which the govt is taking unparalleled steps to address. And I do believe the stimulus will be effective in stopping that circular downward spiral. We may already be seeing positive results from that, and I think definitely it will have an impact over the next 3-6 months. And when the stimulus really takes hold is when housing will stabilize. 6 months is probably a pretty reasonable estimate, the question is how much further it falls in that timeframe.

The other interesting aspect is that housing (all hard assets in general, really) have been traditional hedges against inflation. So we could in fact see a pretty rapid appreciation in housing again (not anything like the bubble, though) if the fed is slow to tame inflation coming down the pipe from the stimulus and run-away budget. Although I do believe there are strong global deflationary forces out there.

[lvkewlkid]

if you don't like the news then don't open the thread, all you do by complaining that out-of-towners posting articles is just hijacking the thread and change the subject...

[olecapt]

Case Shiller appears to be showing a bottom. A Case Shiller bottom however does not say price has reached bottom but the the downard trend is no longer accelerating. So the downward rate has at least stabilized and may be decreasing or is likely too very soon. It is however improbable that one can climb out of a Case Shiller bottom in less than six months and it may take a year. Anecdotally we see at least some zip codes stabilizing. We still see REOs decreasing fast but we also see REO inventory falling. Volume is rising at a very high rate and appears good for some months yet.

Something has to give. All present trends cannot continue.

Interesting Times.