[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Actuallly the heavy duty speculators made a fortune and then a second in Phoenix. When some of the locals jumped in they got slaughtered. But the CA guys who started this all made out like bandits.

They may well have gotten their comeuppance in the end...but I don't think so. Certainly they did well at least through Phoenix.

And I think a lot of that money is still around though some of them may have gotten slaughtered in the stock market.

There is a huge amount of cash appearing in Las Vegas. Working around 1.5 million in sales at the moment of which over half is cash.

I don't know why you believe there was something magical about Phoenix speculators. Like they had any more wisdom than say those that bid up prices in Miami, Vegas, the Inland Empire etc. Did every speculator lose all their money? No, of course not, but the sheer number of foreclosures in Phoenix indicate that many did. Simply put, most of the dumb money has been drained out of the system.

[rpachigo]

Good points all. I can't take credit for specuvestor (I discovered that term from thehousingbubbleblog) but it does seem to apply many of the fools from prior years. A lot of the california speculators probably blew their winnings by doubling down in other locales. Very few actually got out at the top and saved their money. Several anecdotes come to mind such as Casey Serin. I think much of the money coming in now is from new investors such as myself and others. No one is looking for home runs here in this crowd. Simply grinding it out is all we can hope for and beat a measly 2% cd or a stock market I don't understand or bonds from companies or cities going bankrupt.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

I don't know why you believe there was something magical about Phoenix speculators. Like they had any more wisdom than say those that bid up prices in Miami, Vegas, the Inland Empire etc. Did every speculator lose all their money? No, of course not, but the sheer number of foreclosures in Phoenix indicate that many did. Simply put, most of the dumb money has been drained out of the system.

I make no claims about Phoenix speculators. The were the same set of Californians that rode the up in Las Vegas and than went to Phoenix and then somewhere else.

I don't believe this group got hurt in Las Vegas or Phoenix. Made a mint in both and then left. Probably on to TX after Phoenix.

In general the losers were local owner occupants and then local speculators. As the Vegas market crashed 90% was locally owned and 60% owner occupied.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

I make no claims about Phoenix speculators. The were the same set of Californians that rode the up in Las Vegas and than went to Phoenix and then somewhere else.

I don't believe this group got hurt in Las Vegas or Phoenix. Made a mint in both and then left. Probably on to TX after Phoenix.

In general the losers were local owner occupants and then local speculators. As the Vegas market crashed 90% was locally owned and 60% owner occupied.

Does this California cartel have an official name? The bubble markets appreciated roughly along the same timeline. How did these Californians ride the up in Vegas, then the up in Phoenix, make a mint in both markets before moving on to Texas?

And why is it that you know of these Californian's activities in Vegas and Phoenix, but appear to have lost track of them now? They are probably in Texas? Have the Californians taken additional measures to hide their activity from you?

[nwlv]

Maybe the Capt. is talking about the PGA Tour.

[rpachigo]

Originally Posted by nwlv

Maybe the Capt. is talking about the PGA Tour.

Where's his tinfoil hat?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Does this California cartel have an official name? The bubble markets appreciated roughly along the same timeline. How did these Californians ride the up in Vegas, then the up in Phoenix, make a mint in both markets before moving on to Texas?

And why is it that you know of these Californian's activities in Vegas and Phoenix, but appear to have lost track of them now? They are probably in Texas? Have the Californians taken additional measures to hide their activity from you?

The Phoenix peak was a year behind the Las Vegas peak. I though that was widely known. You don't follow this stuff?

I don't know nor care where they went next. I follow Las Vegas...and Phoenix and LA a little.

And you obviously know so little you should avoid embarrassing yourself and let it lie.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The Phoenix peak was a year behind the Las Vegas peak. I though that was widely known. You don't follow this stuff?

Do you have a cite for that information, or is this just some more of that stuff you seem to make up as you go along?

The Phoenix housing peak - Case-Shiller data. Maybe you've heard of them?

Originally Posted by Case-Shiller

Looking at the data from peak-thru-January 2009, Dallas is the least hurt, down 10.8% from its peak in June 2007, while Phoenix is down 48.5% from its peak in June of 2006.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf...ase_033114.pdf

The Vegas housing peak - From The Las Vegas Sun

Originally Posted by Las Vegas Sun

The $155,603 price marks a 50.6 percent decline from the market’s peak in June 2006 when the median price was $315,000, according to the Realtors’ group.
Home prices drop to less than half 2006 peak - Las Vegas Sun

So, the California cartel rode the Phoenix market up and sold, then came to Vegas and rode the market up and sold, when both markets peaked at the same time? That's amazing!

I don't know nor care where they went next. I follow Las Vegas...and Phoenix and LA a little.

Yeah, they seem to have covered their tracks pretty well after their Phoenix and Vegas exploits. People in the know put them in Texas though.

And you obviously know so little you should avoid embarrassing yourself and let it lie.

Bwahahaha.

[olecapt]

[tony soprano]

Unfortunately, YoY price changes in housing and peak housing prices are not the same thing. One measures a rate of change, the other a terminal value. You're really not very good at this.

It's really early though. Maybe you can take the chart down before too many other people see it.