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No no no. You are receiving very bad advice in this thread.
First off, it depends where you live. Rents are much different in outlying areas vs. say Henderson. However, I do agree that you should be willing to spend most of your housing allowance to rent a house.
Second is that there is no way the real estate market in Vegas will rebound in three years. Vegas has roughly a decade of housing supply right now. During the past several years, building went on at an unprecedented pace in Vegas and many developments were in mid build when the real estate crash set in. There are a ton of developments that never ever got sold at all. Combine this with the huge amount of foreclosures and you have a sick amount of oversupply. The notion that no one knows what will happen in this market is bs. I do know for certain one thing that will happen....the Vegas market will not recover in 3 or 5 years. It might have a chance in about 10 years. This is due entirely to market conditions. No bs, no opinion. Its what the facts lead to...primary of which is that there is an oversupply.
Third you need to factor in property tax which varies wildly.
Fourth....about renting.....what do you think happens to rents when there is oversupply? The only thing keeping rents at current levels is that Las Vegas rents are so low compared to other metro areas and property owners cannot move rents lower as the risks are greater than the small amount of rent they would take in.
Fifth...Vegas neighborhoods change literally overnight. There is a development of housing between Orleans and Palms past Decatur that was built in the 90's. At first glance it looks like a modern suburban housing development...nice two story houses, clean yards, etc. But then you notice the bars on windows on nearly every single house in the development. This place is homes less than 20 years old and it is a shady neighborhood and has been that way for a while.
Bottom line is you should only buy in Vegas area right now if you intend to live there for an extended period of time. Jobs are in very short supply, projects are on hiatus, lower end strip properties are likely to close down(Riviera, Tropicana, Hooters, maybe Sahara), and unemployment exceeds 10%.
BTW, I appreciate your family's service to this country and I'd hate to see you make a huge financial mistake. I have a friend stationed at Ft. Irwin and I had to literally scream at him not to buy a house in Barstow or Yermo when he first arrived a year and a half ago. For some reason he had it so set in his head that he was wasting his housing allowance if he lived on base(the base housing there for officers is VERY nice). That is all fine and well under the right circumstances. But he would be screwed now if he had bought a place for say $300K or so....never able to sell it and worth all of $120K or so now. In your situation, you are probably not well served by buying a place.
vegas rents are low? maybe compared to cali? you can buy a house for 120k, rent it out, and still be $300 ahead every month.. give me a break... the more foreclosures = more renters!
No no no. You are receiving very bad advice in this thread.
First off, it depends where you live. Rents are much different in outlying areas vs. say Henderson. However, I do agree that you should be willing to spend most of your housing allowance to rent a house.
Outlying areas with decreased rent? Where? We don't have any outlying areas anymore one with cheap rents.
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Second is that there is no way the real estate market in Vegas will rebound in three years. Vegas has roughly a decade of housing supply right now. During the past several years, building went on at an unprecedented pace in Vegas and many developments were in mid build when the real estate crash set in. There are a ton of developments that never ever got sold at all. Combine this with the huge amount of foreclosures and you have a sick amount of oversupply. The notion that no one knows what will happen in this market is bs. I do know for certain one thing that will happen....the Vegas market will not recover in 3 or 5 years. It might have a chance in about 10 years. This is due entirely to market conditions. No bs, no opinion. Its what the facts lead to...primary of which is that there is an oversupply.
Where do you get that? Vegas certainly built more houses than it should have from 2004 to 2006...but since mid 2004 the rate of building new homes has dropped off to a very small residual. So we have had a couple of years with virtually no new homes and are on are way to another couple. That will pretty much clear the inventory out. Note that rental rates have held quite solidly. Another indication of a relatively stable home population.
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Third you need to factor in property tax which varies wildly.
Since when? They vary from a little less than one percent to a about 1.25%. That is relatively low compared to most places.
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Fourth....about renting.....what do you think happens to rents when there is oversupply? The only thing keeping rents at current levels is that Las Vegas rents are so low compared to other metro areas and property owners cannot move rents lower as the risks are greater than the small amount of rent they would take in.
That is plain silliness. Rates are about where they have been for the last four years. Volumes are up and prices stable.
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Fifth...Vegas neighborhoods change literally overnight. There is a development of housing between Orleans and Palms past Decatur that was built in the 90's. At first glance it looks like a modern suburban housing development...nice two story houses, clean yards, etc. But then you notice the bars on windows on nearly every single house in the development. This place is homes less than 20 years old and it is a shady neighborhood and has been that way for a while.
Again silliness. The suburban ring appears quite stable. Some areas are taking some impact from too high a percentage of renters. Don't buy there. Others are fine.
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Bottom line is you should only buy in Vegas area right now if you intend to live there for an extended period of time. Jobs are in very short supply, projects are on hiatus, lower end strip properties are likely to close down(Riviera, Tropicana, Hooters, maybe Sahara), and unemployment exceeds 10%.
There is some risk to a three year strategy. But not a lot. Make a couple of hundred a month and the place will likely be rentable if it is not yet time to sell it. Homes bought below replacement cost are unlikely to stay there for very long.
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BTW, I appreciate your family's service to this country and I'd hate to see you make a huge financial mistake. I have a friend stationed at Ft. Irwin and I had to literally scream at him not to buy a house in Barstow or Yermo when he first arrived a year and a half ago. For some reason he had it so set in his head that he was wasting his housing allowance if he lived on base(the base housing there for officers is VERY nice). That is all fine and well under the right circumstances. But he would be screwed now if he had bought a place for say $300K or so....never able to sell it and worth all of $120K or so now. In your situation, you are probably not well served by buying a place.
There is a considerable difference between buying well up a bubble and buying well below replacement costs.
Are you certain you want to make those statements with no facts as backing? Are you aware of what is going on in North Vegas up past Craig Road? What about over by Nellis? And over by East Las Vegas?
I can tell you....mass foreclosures and TONS and TONS of homes built since 2004 that are available at $80-120K. Condo's by Nellis sold for cash at $35-40K. You really think those are easy to rent out despite the current oversupply and the overall distance from the main job locations?
If you don't believe me, check out the listings on ZipReality.com for those areas. You will then draw the same conclusions I have.
Also you really need to provide factual information. I provided you an EXACT neighborhood that hit rapid decline and you simply dismiss is as "silliness" while providing no factual evidence to support your statement.
And then your statement that "Homes bought below replacement cost are unlikely to stay there for very long." is just contrary to all standard advice there is on the Las Vegas real estate market. Bully for you. Buy all you want and become rich since just about every property in Las Vegas area is currently valued below replacement cost.
johng - the homes that you are referring to are north of craig east of 15, the condos that you are referring to are in the northeast.. everybody knows that this is a rougher area so of course it would be harder to rent.. a good house (reo) is gone within a week, even days...Also those condos may be conversions.
Thank you all for your advice. We are really looking into buying our first house and excited about it. We are not sure we would want to be long distance landlords, but if that is what is necessary at the end of the 3 years (it would most likely be 3 not 4, we'd be at Creech doing a UAS tour) we would do what we need to do. I know we can't know the future, but it looks like buying is a great option. Your opinions back up what we had been thinking all along. Thanks again!
You and I are in the exact same boat. I've just started (as in today) a 1 yr short in honduras with Creech as my follow on. My wife and I are going to most definitely buy...it's a buyer's market for the military right now with everything in shambles. However, what i wanted to comment on is that one thing that the AF is doing right now is giving the option to keep you in place in order to save on PCS costs. So why sure you have a 3 yr tour but more likely than not they'll ask if you would like to extend for another 1-3 years which is more free money going towards your house. :-)
Are you certain you want to make those statements with no facts as backing? Are you aware of what is going on in North Vegas up past Craig Road? What about over by Nellis? And over by East Las Vegas?
I can tell you....mass foreclosures and TONS and TONS of homes built since 2004 that are available at $80-120K. Condo's by Nellis sold for cash at $35-40K. You really think those are easy to rent out despite the current oversupply and the overall distance from the main job locations?
If you don't believe me, check out the listings on ZipReality.com for those areas. You will then draw the same conclusions I have.
Also you really need to provide factual information. I provided you an EXACT neighborhood that hit rapid decline and you simply dismiss is as "silliness" while providing no factual evidence to support your statement.
And then your statement that "Homes bought below replacement cost are unlikely to stay there for very long." is just contrary to all standard advice there is on the Las Vegas real estate market. Bully for you. Buy all you want and become rich since just about every property in Las Vegas area is currently valued below replacement cost.
Boo to you!
All those areas referenced in your two posts are questionable areas in the valley, no wonder why you wouldn't want anyone to buy a home there. Therefore, you are correct when talking of those locales and the "buyer beware" references in your statements.
Are you certain you want to make those statements with no facts as backing? Are you aware of what is going on in North Vegas up past Craig Road? What about over by Nellis? And over by East Las Vegas?
I can tell you....mass foreclosures and TONS and TONS of homes built since 2004 that are available at $80-120K. Condo's by Nellis sold for cash at $35-40K. You really think those are easy to rent out despite the current oversupply and the overall distance from the main job locations?
If you don't believe me, check out the listings on ZipReality.com for those areas. You will then draw the same conclusions I have.
Also you really need to provide factual information. I provided you an EXACT neighborhood that hit rapid decline and you simply dismiss is as "silliness" while providing no factual evidence to support your statement.
And then your statement that "Homes bought below replacement cost are unlikely to stay there for very long." is just contrary to all standard advice there is on the Las Vegas real estate market. Bully for you. Buy all you want and become rich since just about every property in Las Vegas area is currently valued below replacement cost.
Boo to you!
John I am reasonably expert in the Las Vegas RE Market. Particularly on the North and NW side. The closest place where a military family can find good housing with good schools is likely El Dorado and some of that development needs to be approached carefully. Than you go west to Aliante and Nelson Ranch and continue into the NW. From parts of Aliante and west the schools are quite good and the houses quite inexpensive.
The Creech people have it made as they can pick up nice homes in the far NW heavily impacted by the mortgage mess but with school in the top 10% of those in Las Vegas.
It is an exceptionally good time to buy for someone who has three years here. There are no guarantees but it is very likely they will at least break even when you consider the increased cost for renting an equivalent place.
One generally is very careful about the area around Nellis and the eastern area nearby. There are people in the big apartment complex on Craig who say it works out very well. I would however urge caution there...and I would suggest not if their are children involved.
There are by the way a couple of complexes around Nellis that are OK except for schools. But you need local knowledge to locate those.
Now stop booing me...I have been doing military familiies for a while and I pretty much leave them happy...
I think its a great idea, especially with the housing costs being so low. But depending on the loan, you may be paying on it after you are long gone. Just consider the risks of not finding a renter after you leave, which will then leave you paying on a house you do not live in. Have you considered maybe buying a condo or a cheaper house. I have been looking into condo's out here, and you can get into a nice area for 2br 2ba for around 50K, built in 2006, and have it nearly paid off by the time you leave. Obviously I have not been to any of these yet, but if all is well and there are no problems, it would be a nice investment to have that you wont have to pay on for 15+ years.
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