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Old 07-17-2009, 04:57 PM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
10,439 posts, read 47,498,843 times
Reputation: 10539

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First off I dont believe anything the govt says probably because they never tell the truth. I believe you can safely double that 12.3% number to get a more accurate figure. The govt does not even count self employed who are out of work, those who's UI has run out and are still out of work and of course those who are not eligable to ever collect UI such as the self employed and the commissioned work force. And then we have those who have just given up their job search and given up hope. No one counts them in any statistic.

Now if you isolate the construction industry unemployment rate? I bet it's over 50%
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Old 07-17-2009, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
53 posts, read 232,709 times
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Well, I hope I can get the positions I was interviewed for today. They would've outright hired me as a CART PUSHER for Wal Mart, but I'm still on the fence about lowering my standards to such a degree.

That was until I saw that new number. Holy hell. Cart pushing beats unemployment. A 20 year-old cart pusher.

...this is the pits.
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Old 07-17-2009, 05:31 PM
 
9,849 posts, read 7,769,794 times
Reputation: 3292
Quote:
Originally Posted by LVinWA View Post
Well, I hope I can get the positions I was interviewed for today. They would've outright hired me as a CART PUSHER for Wal Mart, but I'm still on the fence about lowering my standards to such a degree.

That was until I saw that new number. Holy hell. Cart pushing beats unemployment. A 20 year-old cart pusher.

...this is the pits.
Wal Mart is stable and if you have a degree or lots of drive, I think you would make department manager soon.
Everyone has to start at the bottom and 20 isn't that old to push carts, there are retirees doing it as well.
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Old 07-17-2009, 05:36 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,321,595 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
Now if you isolate the construction industry unemployment rate? I bet it's over 50%
Vegas specific, or nationally? I agree that the real unemployment numbers are not fully represented by the headline unemployment rate, but I don't think it's anywhere near 50%. Things aren't quite that bad. Yet.
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Old 07-17-2009, 05:47 PM
 
9,849 posts, read 7,769,794 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Vegas specific, or nationally? I agree that the real unemployment numbers are not fully represented by the headline unemployment rate, but I don't think it's anywhere near 50%. Things aren't quite that bad. Yet.
Just an opinion Tony S., but I think construction is dead almost everywhere right now.
Vegas was the hottest market for construction and I think it is way down now as well.

Don't forget about the worst part of unemployment numbers like 12.3%. That is that once you are a year out of work, you are still out of work but not counted in the numbers, so the 12.3 could be somewhat higher.
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Old 07-17-2009, 06:23 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
12,686 posts, read 34,309,184 times
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I've heard talks by the statisticians in Carson City, but I didn't understand it too much. I think they can only estimate from reported RTW (return to work) figures but data is just not always available to be 100% accurate. The law that says employers are supposed to report new hires has only been on the books for a few years, and at least while I was still working nobody was enforcing it, and less than 10% were actually complying. So true numbers are hard to get. But 12.3% doesn't represent only those who are collecting UI though. It's like any survey results...standard statistical errors apply. And if you apply the numbers against an average percentage it gives you an idea how good or bad things really are, and in the case of UI, how much money you need to cover the claims, or whether it's time to offer extended benefits, etc. You've got to start somewhere. But I can tell you that nobody is trying to cover anything up and paint a rosy picture. There is just no reason, nor is there anyway to get thousands of government workers on board, to perpetuate a conspiracy to fool the public into thinking things are better than they are. First of all, UI people, being human, really tend to go the other way and make it sound worse. But no orders come down to the 50 states from the White House to cover anything up. How would that work with a Republican Governor?
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Old 07-17-2009, 06:31 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,321,595 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RCCCB View Post
Just an opinion Tony S., but I think construction is dead almost everywhere right now.
Vegas was the hottest market for construction and I think it is way down now as well.

Don't forget about the worst part of unemployment numbers like 12.3%. That is that once you are a year out of work, you are still out of work but not counted in the numbers, so the 12.3 could be somewhat higher.
RCCCB, there's no question in my mind that the headline unemployment rate does not fully capture the "real" unemployment rate. I agree that the Vegas unemployment rate may well be over 12.3%. I was really commenting on the construction unemployment rate of 50%. At first blush that sounded awfully high for a national number. Vegas specific, I suppose it could be that bad. Honestly, I don't know.

Here's a snippet from the most recent BLS data. It doesn't provide city by city granularity so I don't know that it helps much -
Quote:
Originally Posted by BLS
In June, employment in construction fell by 79,000, with losses spread throughout the industry. Since the start of the recession, construction employment has fallen by 1.3 million. Mining employment fell by 8,000 in June, about in line with the average monthly decline since its recent peak in October 2008.


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Old 07-17-2009, 07:09 PM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
10,439 posts, read 47,498,843 times
Reputation: 10539
Recession? Huh. That's another joke. This govt only just admitted there was a recession last December when in fact the recession was already 2 years old. How long do you think before they publicly say the dreaded "D" word? By all respected sources we are in a depression. Oops, I cursed. I said that "D" word.

Some areas of the country are not feeling it as bad such as the DC areas. The highly paid fat cat Bureaucrats will always have money and lock tight job security and walking the streets of Northern Virginia, Maryland or DC it still looks like the Roaring 20s.
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Old 07-17-2009, 07:18 PM
 
Location: Sierra Vista, AZ
17,604 posts, read 23,069,180 times
Reputation: 9933
You can't have an economy that doesn't produce any products, any more than it can be based on borrowing from China so we can buy Chinese crap at WALMART
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Old 07-17-2009, 07:27 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,321,595 times
Reputation: 488
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buzz123 View Post
I've heard talks by the statisticians in Carson City, but I didn't understand it too much. I think they can only estimate from reported RTW (return to work) figures but data is just not always available to be 100% accurate. The law that says employers are supposed to report new hires has only been on the books for a few years, and at least while I was still working nobody was enforcing it, and less than 10% were actually complying. So true numbers are hard to get. But 12.3% doesn't represent only those who are collecting UI though. It's like any survey results...standard statistical errors apply. And if you apply the numbers against an average percentage it gives you an idea how good or bad things really are, and in the case of UI, how much money you need to cover the claims, or whether it's time to offer extended benefits, etc. You've got to start somewhere. But I can tell you that nobody is trying to cover anything up and paint a rosy picture. There is just no reason, nor is there anyway to get thousands of government workers on board, to perpetuate a conspiracy to fool the public into thinking things are better than they are. First of all, UI people, being human, really tend to go the other way and make it sound worse. But no orders come down to the 50 states from the White House to cover anything up. How would that work with a Republican Governor?
I don't think it's necessarily a govt. conspiracy to suppress bad employment data. It's just the way that the BLS collects and reports the data doesn't fully capture how bad the labor market is. As you are probably aware, folks that throw in the towel and stop actively seeking work, are no longer counted in the unemployment numbers. They're still out of work, making no contribution to GDP, but they no longer figure in the unemployment calculation. Nor do the unemployment numbers reflect the number of people who are underemployed. For example, I get laid off from my regular full-time job and take a part-time job because it's the only thing I can find. I won't be included in the unemployment numbers.

It's the same kind of data reporting that excludes energy, food and housing costs from the core inflation rate, when those specific components were inflating the most.
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