[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Slim10

I disagree. From a statistical perspective, 89134 is and has been an outlier in determining benchmark prices.

On what basis?

It is the model of the more expensive, move up and high end home....

It is an outlier perhaps in that it was not churned to any place near the same extent as those places with extensive new build in 2004 to 2007. Than again that is true of 2/3 of the valley. And its behavior will be very much the same as 89012.

[Slim10]

Very simple basis. The impact of foreclosures have not hit 89134 but have in every other zip code. From a behaviourial standpoint, its not going to be reflective of current benchmark prices for foreclosure impacted areas (which is the underlying assumption).

If one is measuring how much foreclosures will hit prices in the upper end market assuming foreclosures of mid to upper increases, one would not select a region which has not been hit as indicative.

[Huckleberry3911948]

property is not a liability, debt is. banks know that.
too bad owners could not figure that out.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Slim10

Very simple basis. The impact of foreclosures have not hit 89134 but have in every other zip code. From a behaviourial standpoint, its not going to be reflective of current benchmark prices for foreclosure impacted areas (which is the underlying assumption).

If one is measuring how much foreclosures will hit prices in the upper end market assuming foreclosures of mid to upper increases, one would not select a region which has not been hit as indicative.

Not true. There are a dozen zip codes hit less or around the same as 89134. There are as well around a half dozen with similar housing values. In fact none of the high end zip codes are hit significantly worse than 89134 except the only actually hard hit and still suffering high end zip 89084. (Did not look at LLV which also may be there)

The zips suffering most...though not all that badly compared to the peak...are the borders to the high end...128,129,117,108

Not suggesting these places have not taken a substantial economic hit...the have many being down by 40% to 50%. But they are flat to slowly increasing over the last months.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by olecapt

"Las Vegas will likely do its own thing...as it did on the way down".

"Las Vegas will likely do its own thing"... I'm not buying it.

Every single metro area has it's own personality as to how it inflated and deflated. And each zip code within that metro area has variations as well. But it was universal that prices got out of control with cheap risky borrowing that drove up demand. Land, labor, profits, and material prices went up by a lot. Now land, labor, profits, and material prices have come down by a lot.

Wealth has disappeared and there are forces in play that makes it harder to borrow money (especially creative financing). While I appreciate the fact that Vegas real estate is a playground for the wealthy(er), it's not immune to the realities of our economy in November 2009.

The folks writing the articles tend to look at the big picture (will unemployment go up or down, how many people are behind payments, what is happening to the cost of energy, what will the impact be on the "next shoe to drop", are loan mods working, is interest rates being held down and what's the impact.

You only seem to only look at a few of variables with blinders on: sales volume, inventory, unemployment and resale prices. In other words, you have a street view. That's an important viewpoint. While I'd be happy to take your opinions on what neighborhoods are good or bad, what HOA's are in trouble etc, I don't trust your ability to estimate future pricing or demand.

Expensive homes in Vegas will have the same forces tugging on them as the rest of the nation. Some zip codes which have been beaten down and might be done depreciating while the average market may have more to go (like is predicted in the rest of the country). Unless of course the laws of economics and psychology don't apply to the city of Las Vegas.

[007 license to sell]

I attended a housing out look seminar last week and well known and respected analyst stated that highend home prices will start coming down and put pressure on middle income home prices to continue to go down as well. Right now according the todays Washington journal states that 1 in 4 home owners are underwater in their mortgages. Click on the link I have provided:
One in Four Borrowers Is Underwater - WSJ.com

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

"Las Vegas will likely do its own thing"... I'm not buying it.

Every single metro area has it's own personality as to how it inflated and deflated. And each zip code within that metro area has variations as well. But it was universal that prices got out of control with cheap risky borrowing that drove up demand. Land, labor, profits, and material prices went up by a lot. Now land, labor, profits, and material prices have come down by a lot.

There was wide variation in the LV price behavior. Some places went up less than 30% and came down about the same. Others more than doubled and came down worse than that.

some metros moved up very little...and as a result have come down very little. Many in TX for instance.

There was some exuberance everywhere...but in some places it was quite small. In others it dominated the market (Vegas for example)

Wealth has disappeared and there are forces in play that makes it harder to borrow money (especially creative financing). While I appreciate the fact that Vegas real estate is a playground for the wealthy(er), it's not immune to the realities of our economy in November 2009.

The folks writing the articles tend to look at the big picture (will unemployment go up or down, how many people are behind payments, what is happening to the cost of energy, what will the impact be on the "next shoe to drop", are loan mods working, is interest rates being held down and what's the impact.

You only seem to only look at a few of variables with blinders on: sales volume, inventory, unemployment and resale prices. In other words, you have a street view. That's an important viewpoint. While I'd be happy to take your opinions on what neighborhoods are good or bad, what HOA's are in trouble etc, I don't trust your ability to estimate future pricing or demand.

Expensive homes in Vegas will have the same forces tugging on them as the rest of the nation. Some zip codes which have been beaten down and might be done depreciating while the average market may have more to go (like is predicted in the rest of the country). Unless of course the laws of economics and psychology don't apply to the city of Las Vegas.

Well of course I look mostly at LV...this is the LV list after all. The indications are and remain that middle to upper homes did their own thing and will recover in their own fashion. I opine in fact that they were, in general, less involved than the mass produced tracts...went up less and came down in a much more orderly fashion. There are of course exceptions...some expensive tracts in Summerlin and elsewhere were epicenter...inflated outrageously and got bombed when the decline hit. But the vast majority of say 89134 did not show that pattern.

I would also note that the primary driver of price right now appears to be the classic sale. The short and bank owned have now been mostly stable to increasing slightly for a while but there is still some movenment downard in the classics. It is offset by the small upward movement in the REOs.

That movement however shows no higher end drive. Appears more low end classic than anything. Which makes sense as the REO pressure is at the lower end.

We will see. I see little changing from where we are now before spring...then we see what next.

[tony soprano]

Well, this is interesting.

Fannie Mae won't consider investors' offers on foreclosures for first 15 days on the market.

Fannie Looks to Level Foreclosed-Home Playing Field - WSJ.com

[sierramadre44]

Here is my link to add for the day:

U.S. Cities With The Most Underwater Mortgages - Yahoo! Real Estate

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Well, this is interesting.

Fannie Mae won't consider investors' offers on foreclosures for first 15 days on the market.

Fannie Looks to Level Foreclosed-Home Playing Field - WSJ.com

Could be helpful to the owner occupant...bit I would wait a while. Much of the problem was that investors were willing to pay more. This does fix that.

Still have had banks turn down FHA listings for FHA mortgages...so it may all not be so simple. HUD houses with FHA insurable status are turned down so routinely that the HUD brokers have stopped taking FHA offers.