Lehigh Valley Housing Market (Bethlehem: home sales, live in, prices)

[LifetimeLocal]

Originally Posted by jeffvivian

ok....this posting now reveals your face and its familiar....and its the same merry go round from last year....good luck.

My familiar face from last year? When have you ever met me? You are the realtor I should be saying good luck to you.

[toobusytoday]

Originally Posted by LifetimeLocal

For the three months ended Sept. 30, 4.5 percent of mortgages in the Lehigh Valley area – defined as Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties and Warren County, N.J. – were 60 or more days past due, according to the credit reporting agency TransUnion in Chicago. That's up from 3.1 percent in the same quarter a year ago and up from 4.2 percent in the second quarter of this year.

Being two months behind is considered a first step toward foreclosure, because it's so hard to catch up with payments at that point.

The local mortgage delinquency rate has been climbing since the first quarter of 2007, when only 1.8 percent of mortgages were 60 or more days delinquent, according to TransUnion.


Did you forget to put this on there?

Nope. I was highlighting the part about Lehigh Valley not being as hard hit as other areas of the country.

[LifetimeLocal]

Originally Posted by toobusytoday

Nope. I was highlighting the part about Lehigh Valley not being as hard hit as other areas of the country.

Yet

Also our unemployment is rising, prices of homes are falling so this saga is far from over. Fundamentals are what always causes bubbles to burst.

House prices will keep falling in most places because those prices are still dangerously high compared to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer's yearly income with 20% downpayment. Landlords say a safe price is a maximum of 15 times the house's yearly rent. Yet on the coasts, both those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers are still borrowing 6 times their income and putting only 3% down, and sellers are still asking 30 times annual rent, even after recent price declines. Renting is a cash business that reflects what people can really pay based on their salary, not how much they can borrow. Salaries and rents prove that prices will keep falling for a long time. Anyone who bought a "bargain" this time last year is already sitting on a very painful loss.

People who want to say that our region experienced house prices that doubled in a few short years always claim it was because of the large number of people who moved here. Here is data from this website that proves that statement is incorrect

Population in July 2008: 107,250. Population change since 2000: +0.6%


Read more: //www.city-data.com/city/Allentown-Pennsylvania.html#ixzz0XK0ve1P2

Population in July 2008: 107,250. Population change since 2000: +0.6%


Estimated median household income in 2007: $36,074 (it was $32,016 in 2000)

[LEFT]Allentown: $36,074Pennsylvania: $48,576[/LEFT]

Estimated per capita income in 2007: $18,058

[LEFT]Allentown: $18,058Pennsylvania: $26,228[/LEFT]

Estimated median house or condo value in 2007: $140,800 (it was $77,000 in 2000)
[LEFT]Allentown: $140,800Pennsylvania: $155,000[/LEFT]


Now if you take the fundamentals of housing then our region is just as out of whack as the rest of the regions in our country that experienced the same issues. We are no different. It's obvious that we had the same issues. Denial is not a river in the amazon its reaching us near the Lehigh river.

[toobusytoday]

I'm attempting to point out that this is not a LOCAL problem. The economy in the whole country stinks. Unemployment is rising and so are foreclosures. Strangely enough people are finding jobs, they are buying houses. Life goes on...

[LifetimeLocal]

Originally Posted by toobusytoday

I'm attempting to point out that this is not a LOCAL problem. The economy in the whole country stinks. Unemployment is rising and so are foreclosures. Strangely enough people are finding jobs, they are buying houses. Life goes on...

Being optimistic is great except when it interfers with reality. People will always buy homes, find jobs etc. What does that mean? People that live in bubbles should not play with needles.

I never said it wasnt local, it's global actually. My point is that our region is going to see the major decline in housing values that the other bubble markets are seeing. In fact I think it will be worse because our economy "LOCALLY" will be worse before it's over.

[toobusytoday]

Great! Just what we need on a relocation forum - the economy stinks here AND it's going to get worse!

[LifetimeLocal]

Originally Posted by toobusytoday

Great! Just what we need on a relocation forum - the economy stinks here AND it's going to get worse!

Thanks for the sarcasm. Moderators moderate right? Maybe I should sugar coat and LIE like some other well known people on here do. Since there is only a few people that post/use the lehigh valley forum and they seem to be looking to drum up business and brag about things that arent true like the local housing/job market I think people should know the TRUTH from someone who's lived here more than a few years.

[LifetimeLocal]

Here is a brief section of a webpage that I think everyone should read. The rest of the article can be viewed by following the link below.

Housing Market Bubble Bust Cycles

Housing prices are coming down. We need to recognize that there was a bubble. Everybody wanted to buy a home. If you did not buy, you would be left of the market for good. Your friends would get rich and prosper and you would be left out with an inferior life style. It was greed and fear of being left behind that moved them. Nobody asked why the hell on earth an investment that does not pay enough rent to pay the expenses would go up. All they wanted was to flip and get rich.
This boom was a result of credit inflation engineered by the FED which we will discuss on another page. If you research you will learn that house prices on the long run do not appreciate more than the CPI, so the bubble reached extraordinary levels by all measure.
As of now (September 2009), we still have a way to fall to reach normal levels according to Case-Shiller Home Price index. If the FED prints money, we all go to poor house and our 100 million dollar homes may be worth the same as a car in the near future, or if the FED does not print money, then the home values will continue to fall as the subprime mess is followed by resetting ARMs for other prime borrowers. After that we will be facing the commercial real estate bust since the consumers will be spending less and vicious cycle of job losses, bank failures, mortgage crisis will continue for a few years more.
Many experts such as Gary Schiller, Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff, Robert Prechter has warned us about the bubble. Unfortunately main stream media only cares about the profits and is not interested in giving equal air time to contrarian bears when it matters the most: During the time the bubble develops. Bears become popular after the bust which is too late for most investors and home owners.

[toobusytoday]

I don't know why you think that a forum primarily designed for people relocating is the appropriate place to keep pounding the point home that the housing market is bad. Frankly, I think everyone gets it. Is anyone disagreeing that if you bought a house when the prices were high and tried to sell now, it would not be a good idea?

But go ahead, if you think there are people out there that don't know about what's going on, feel free to keep us all updated. Let's keep it angled to the Lehigh Valley. You might want to look at this forum //www.city-data.com/forum/real-estate/ for more real estate talk.

[canman63]

EmmausRocks .... None of your dire predictions from last Winter about where the housing market would be in the Lehigh Valley have materialized ...

Sorry to see that you've reincarnated, with the same hobbyhorsing about the "impending mortgage bubble" .... I didn't think trolling was allowed here ...