Truth about the Lehigh Valley Real Estate (Emmaus, Northampton: transplants, for sale)

[EmmausRocks]

I think it's about time someone who's lived in the Lehigh Valley tells the truth. The average house in the Lehigh Valley prior to 2001 was about 95k for a single family home. For a twin you could buy for around 70k and that's in your better neighborhoods like East Penn & Parkland.

I feel horrible for anyone who's purchased a home from 2003-2007 because they paid anywhere from 50-80% more than the home was worth. Take a look at this chart that was prepared by the Yale economist Robert Schiller who created the S&P home price index. It shows how this housing/credit bubble was created by the fed's in order to get us through the DOT.COM recession. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...aph2.large.gif

Now it's 2008 and I live in Emmaus. There are so many homes that have been on the market for 6 months to 1 year and are not getting any offers and these homes are priced under 200k and most of them are around 150-175k. Since we've lived here all our lives any true local would tell you that the 95% or more of the people who purchased during the housing bubble were people from NJ & NY who were priced out of their neighborhoods because of the housing bubble. The average commute add's up to about 4-6 hours a day. When you calculate the cost of fuel, oil changes, wear & tear on automobiles along with the fact you work 8-10 hours a days then commute 3-4 hours you basically are not having a family life. That's horrible on the person and especially the family.

Now the local paper "Morning Call" is nothing but a cheerleaders for the local realtors. Think about this, paper's generate revenue from ad's. The number #1 buyer of ad's are realtors and housing related industries. If you read the articles the morning call uses economists who are on the payroll of the local realtors. Of course they are going to print what the realtors tell them. They try and portray us as a bedroom community for NJ & NYC and the fact is we are not. 2-3 hours one way during traffic and that's what it takes trust me, I own a trucking company is the average time. That's not a bedroom community.

Prices in NJ & NY were always higher than the lehigh valley so why hasn't the influx of residents been coming for the last 30 years? I'll tell you why, because a commute like that is insane. Now these folks who bought during this bubble period are watching their home values plummet. Homes that would sell for 250k at the peak are now asking for 175k and getting no offers. Trust me I know dozens of people in this situation.

Foreclosures in Lehigh & Northampton counties are up 55% and rising. When this disaster is over the average price of houses around the valley will once again be 100k or less. You have to look at the medium income which for this area is around 37k. Housing historically for over 115 years should be about 2.8 times thats which would be around 100k.

In the mid to late 90's when housing values started rising at 3-4% around here bells & whistles should have been going off. Salaries only rise annually 2-3% if your lucky. That's when housing started getting our of control but yet the media dupped everyone. The chart I posted will & should blow your mind because historically housing rose and should rise at then than .5%. People need to examine what happened during the Japanese housing bubble and see the similarities to us. We are heading towards another great depression and this bailout will no nothing but extend the problem without fixing anything. Freddy & Fannie should be left to go under just like Bear Stern.

Look at the rental values vs buying and you'll see what I mean. You can still find a nice home/apartment for rent under $750 a month. Now if you look at the amount of 1k - 3k homes people are trying to rent, they are nothing but preforeclosures. If you look at the lehigh valley multiple listing website Lehigh Valley Multiple Listing Service and take the address to the lehigh valley deed website Lehigh County Assessment Record Search you will see that over 95% of all the homes here were purchased during the bubble era. Now look when viewing the deed website look at the purchase history. Homes that are now asking for let's say 250k were purchased in 2004 for 235k but in 2000 they were sold for 120k. That's a ponzai/pyramid scheme for the decades.

When you really want to see what's happening & going to happen with housing/credit you need to view a couple websites. They take articles from the world's top economists and people not on the realtors payroll and explain this problem in user friendly terms. Do yourself a favor and stay informed.

Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops ---- This is the best one in my opinion.

The Housing Bubble Blog

New Jersey Real Estate Report ---- For all you NJ & NY residents this one will blow you away.

The funny thing about commutes who purchased here is that you will now be driving that commute from PA to NJ/NY and watch the old neighborhood you were priced out of now dropping in value to where you could have actually stayed. This will go done in the biggest ponzai scheme ever.

Remember Bush telling everyone to buy homes, spend money, keep the economy rolling. All this during war time. History shows us that during times of war you should be frugal and spend less. At the same time the fed's made it harder to file bankruptcy, coincidence? I think not.

[jeffvivian]

Wow....I can't even comprehend this. This is such broad generalizations with out of context references that I have ever read.

My only question is how many people you are recruiting for your fallout shelter.

[EmmausRocks]

WOW, a real estate agent not wanting to agree with facts. Hard to imagine. People can judge for this message and I've gotten over 15 PM's thanking me. Sorry business is down agents but the sucker well has run dry.


www.patrick.net

[EmmausRocks]

Originally Posted by jeffvivian

Wow....I can't even comprehend this. This is such broad generalizations with out of context references that I have ever read.

My only question is how many people you are recruiting for your fallout shelter.

And the best part is this rookie got into the housing bubble game at the end of the bubble. Go back to selling insurance.
www.patrick.net

[jeffvivian]

That's original, I hope you didn't hurt yourself coming up with that.

I'll let my posts and professional rep speak for me on this one.

[EmmausRocks]

Originally Posted by jeffvivian

That's original, I hope you didn't hurt yourself coming up with that.

I'll let my posts and professional rep speak for me on this one.

And I'll let the truth about housing/credit & the economy speak for itself. Tell the public how YOU change the "average time on market" by taking home off the market for a quick second then relist & bang now it's day 1 on the market. Tell them how homes sit for average of 6 months to 1 year and usually don't get any takers because the prices are insanse. Tell them how foreclosures are up 50 - 60% in Northamton & Lehigh.

Here's a site that will explain everything and then some. Realtors are nothing but used car salemans in different shoes. Get the facts, if he was so busy he wouldn't have too troll the internet hitting up potential fools.

www.patrick.net

Here's a great site for you New Jersey folks.

New Jersey Real Estate Report

[mczabe]

Originally Posted by EmmausRocks

Realtors are nothing but used car salemans in different shoes. Get the facts, if he was so busy he wouldn't have too troll the internet hitting up potential fools.

I think any time you condemn an entire group, you weaken your own argument. There are some lousy realtors who will say anything to get the listing or the sale. But then, there are some fabulous realtors who go above and beyond to help their clients, in a legal and ethical manner. (and no, I'm not one of them as a matter of fact, I'm one of the bubble pop victims myself.)

Just a suggestion - For someone so interested in spreading the truth, you might want to stay away from angry personal attacks that drown out the very message you're trying to share.

[toobusytoday]

I'll stick up for Realtors too. A good realtor is one that finds you the house you are looking for and helps you get the best price for it. People will pay what the market will bare. If a house is listed too high it won't sell, period. I understand that the prices of houses right now are higher then they used to be but that's not just a Lehigh Valley problem. We bought our LV house for the exact same amount we sold a house for in Delaware county. Most people that are moving to the Lehigh County are actually moving here from Northampton county, not NYC and NJ.

[Movin2Maine]

Originally Posted by jeffvivian

Wow....I can't even comprehend this. This is such broad generalizations with out of context references that I have ever read.

My only question is how many people you are recruiting for your fallout shelter.

This is happening all over the state and country...Its sad situation to see folks in there hometown get priced out by transplants from neighboring states. I'm not against the people that move to a new area and contribute to the local economy. It's the ones that turn an area into a bedroom community that are bad for the community.

The cost of living, taxes and inflation have caused a lot of this to unfold. How can you raise a family, keep our marriage and enjoy your life, if you are commuting 4 hours a day? Just so you say that you work in the "City". A lot of this can be blamed on the "Keeping up with the Joneses" mentality and the people that think they can afford any house or car they like, even though they are living paycheck to paycheck.

[wowbaby]

i am amazed at how many houses are for sale and are not selling. you go thru the subdivisions of LMT and almost every house for sale says price reduced on the sign - and these are all houses going for between 350k and 450k. they just aren't moving.

we moved here at the tail end of the houseing bubble. we were lucky enough to buy my FIL's house for 400k (it was appraised at 550k) - he gaves us the "friends and family discount". we recently got the house re-appraised - it has fallen to 435k and this was in may. i bet if we did it again, it would be lower still. we were thinking of moving to LMT for the east penn school district. we are very definitely putting it off until a later time.

people are going to really have to think if a move is the NECESSARY thing cause they are losing close to 100k in their homes at the moment.