Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I am not buying anything on Long Island any time soon... unless prices match
double a family income... say 90k x 2... or even push it to 270k.. and thats something nice..but not for 600k....
my guess is you do not want to buy on long island because that is NOT going to happen and if that ever does happen that would mean that houses in middle america and the south currently going for 180k should be worth about 85k and you should not be buying houses but building bomb shelters and bunkers and buying guns and granades in the black market. Bottom line is that in Long Island...say a nice 3 bed 1.5 bath house in a decent neighborhood with schools you can actually stomach sending your kids selling for 280k even is highly unlikely. If you can tell me the last time prices in 'decent' neighborhoods or even bad ones on long island matched 2X a person's income that would be interesting. Not sure that has ever hapenned, it is a by-product of living within 30-50 miles from THE major metropolitan area in the northeast, called New York City. Please do not take this the wrong way...I agree, real estate needs to adjust. But with your comments it seems you are delusional.
The 4.X% interest rates mitigate the risk of further market declines. That said, I wouldn't rush in to anything. I don't see prices ticking up substantially anytime soon. If interest rates start to climb, it will probabally push prices down again.
Regardless, I'd base my decision primarily on how confident I am that I won't have to move in the next 5 years. Chances are you'll lose money after paying realtor fees if you have to move in a few years.
my guess is you do not want to buy on long island because that is NOT going to happen and if that ever does happen that would mean that houses in middle america and the south currently going for 180k should be worth about 85k and you should not be buying houses but building bomb shelters and bunkers and buying guns and granades in the black market. Bottom line is that in Long Island...say a nice 3 bed 1.5 bath house in a decent neighborhood with schools you can actually stomach sending your kids selling for 280k even is highly unlikely. If you can tell me the last time prices in 'decent' neighborhoods or even bad ones on long island matched 2X a person's income that would be interesting. Not sure that has ever hapenned, it is a by-product of living within 30-50 miles from THE major metropolitan area in the northeast, called New York City. Please do not take this the wrong way...I agree, real estate needs to adjust. But with your comments it seems you are delusional.
The old standard used to be buying no more then 3x your annual gross and put 20% down... I bought my first house on Long Island for about 2x gross of me and my wifes annual salary in 1995. Sachem schools - "good" area at the time.
I can't imagine why you'd think this scenario is so foreign - it was happening 15 years ago. So, if LI values are based on being so close to THE NYC and you used to be able to get a "good" area for about 2 to 3x the gross salary, why suddenly can't you do that? Why have values skyrocketed and stayed up there when the median salaries for the area hasn't?
IMO it's not going to "shake out" completely until you see average homes in average areas selling for about 3x gross salary... Let's take a quick example - Hauppauge. Good area - good schools. Let's check CD stats:
Estimated median household income in 2008: $102,452 (it was $78,178 in 2000)
I would argue that adjusted income from 2008 to 2010 is DOWN... But, let's just say it's still $100k. Take a look on MLS and see what you can get in Hauppauge for $300k.
This is what is broken and out of whack - especially when you consider the death word - TAXES... Sellers can tell buyers to "pitch tents", they can think all they want it's low enough now - but the buck will speak in the end.
Last edited by MikeyKid; 08-25-2010 at 11:17 AM..
Reason: typo
I cannot tell you why the prices of homes are so 'sticky' and quite honestly the why is rather inmaterial. My point is that it is just not going to happen. Now there are a lot of bad thing that come out of real estate remaning at very high comparative levels to income (i.e. lots of ilegal apartments) and many other issues that I do not care to get into on this thread as it is covered in many other ones. Issue is the context of 'sticky wages' seems to some extent be applying to 'sticky real estate' prices up to a point. Since real estate is actually correcting a lot more than incomes and thank god for that.
my guess is you do not want to buy on long island because that is NOT going to happen and if that ever does happen that would mean that houses in middle america and the south currently going for 180k should be worth about 85k and you should not be buying houses but building bomb shelters and bunkers and buying guns and granades in the black market. Bottom line is that in Long Island...say a nice 3 bed 1.5 bath house in a decent neighborhood with schools you can actually stomach sending your kids selling for 280k even is highly unlikely. If you can tell me the last time prices in 'decent' neighborhoods or even bad ones on long island matched 2X a person's income that would be interesting. Not sure that has ever hapenned, it is a by-product of living within 30-50 miles from THE major metropolitan area in the northeast, called New York City. Please do not take this the wrong way...I agree, real estate needs to adjust. But with your comments it seems you are delusional.
In 1980 you could by a nice house in a great neighborhood for 35k.... double household income at that time would be about 30-45k.....
Not delusional.....
In 1980 you could by a nice house in a great neighborhood for 35k.... double household income at that time would be about 30-45k.....
Not delusional.....
maybe they were underpriced back then and we're just now catching up...lol.
Also have to factor in things like interest rates at the time (probably in the mid teens if I'm not mistaken).
Anyway, I'm with you on this for the most part, however it seems like the ratio you describe might be a LONG way off.
If you have the 20% to put down, good credit, a secure job to pay the monthly mortgage & plan on stying in it 20+ years then i say yes. Its a good time to dive in.
loans are still being written to people with good credit 680-700+ fico, good income for conforming loans at 3.5% down.....so I hear. I say you want to lend me $ at 4.5% for 30 yrs for 3.5% down. I will take it.
In 1980 you could by a nice house in a great neighborhood for 35k.... double household income at that time would be about 30-45k.....
Not delusional.....
Good to know....wake me up (from the dead) when that ever happens again.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
