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1. Retirees have always had a certain percentage leaving LI for warmer & cheaper climes. Back when my dinosaur carried me to school, the term "Brain Drain" was being tossed about. We do lose some younger people, but we do gain some, too. Who would be staffing the hospitals, schools, colleges, PDs, town offices, etc?
2. Family retired south, some relocated. Relocated family took a pay cut but 'everything is cheaper' -- their taxes continue to rise, utilities rising, new developments are going up requiring more schools be built....shades of LI in the 1950's.
3. Everyone wants new or newly renovated. New turns old. Old needs repairs. The quarter million dollar model homes I looked at 25 years ago where brand spanking new. They need work now. Given our limited space, how much can we keep building before LI is built out? Why is it in New England, people tend to preserve older homes as opposed to tearing them down and building the latest fauxshion house? Going back to line 2 -- my retired parents built new when they moved. Fifteen years later it needs repairs. Their neighbor across the street built new in 1987 -- he is selling and people have been put off by the dated kitchen and baths.
4. Legal matters can be dragged out insufferably long periods of time. I believe the glut of foreclosures on the national level (most mortgage companies are not local) is helping slow that down. There are plenty of communities on LI where there are fewer foreclosures; those areas aren't going to see a drop in prices like the ones which have a greater number of foreclosures.
Not that it's a great tool, but this week's Zillow email indicated my house has increased in value 7.2% after months of dropping 1% here and there. I am seeing fewer For Sale signs popping up, several of my clients have sold their 'dated' homes (retirees moving south) fairly quickly -- who knows -- maybe we've hit a plateau?
1. Our children leaving are being replace, by immigrants who are willing to live in the worst areas of LI and fill in the gaps from the 20-29 generation leaving. Also, we have always had a part of the population that have left for warmer climates, but the Boomers retiring will bring on certain conditions that were not present then. For one, we will be paying pensioned retirees living out of NY more then we will be taking in within 5 years. That's not a good sign.
2. This is true. The allure of greener pastures will always draw people, but if you were living on a fixed income and your taxes are either $1,200 or $12,000 which would you choose?
3. New England people preserve older homes because they have character, charm, and were built to last. Most LI homes were thrown up in the Levitt format and were built for someone else to live in. Why do you buy a new computer when you can just update your 386?
4. I definitely don't think we're going to see a drop of more then 10%, but on a 400k house that's still $40,000.
Well, that solves it. Zillow says housing prices have risen 7.2%. It must be true, never seen an e-mail that wasn't true. Your house is only worth what someone will pay for it. And I've noticed that when people are trying to gauge the value of their houses then they will only look at the houses that sell high and they always think their house compares favorably. It's funny how that works!
"A bit"? Gee Dman, not arguning your points as ferociously as you used to, huh? Hard to argue when data that directly opposes you keeps rearing it's head, huh?
I believe the only person confused about the topic of this thread is you. Everyone else seems to grasp it. Why not start your own thread titled "Vagueness: RE may go up a bit, drop a bit or stay the same. Discuss".
Directly opposes what? Keep it up with the strawmen.
1. Our children leaving are being replace, by immigrants who are willing to live in the worst areas of LI and fill in the gaps from the 20-29 generation leaving. Also, we have always had a part of the population that have left for warmer climates, but the Boomers retiring will bring on certain conditions that were not present then. For one, we will be paying pensioned retirees living out of NY more then we will be taking in within 5 years. That's not a good sign.
2. This is true. The allure of greener pastures will always draw people, but if you were living on a fixed income and your taxes are either $1,200 or $12,000 which would you choose?
3. New England people preserve older homes because they have character, charm, and were built to last. Most LI homes were thrown up in the Levitt format and were built for someone else to live in. Why do you buy a new computer when you can just update your 386?
4. I definitely don't think we're going to see a drop of more then 10%, but on a 400k house that's still $40,000.
Well, that solves it. Zillow says housing prices have risen 7.2%. It must be true, never seen an e-mail that wasn't true. Your house is only worth what someone will pay for it. And I've noticed that when people are trying to gauge the value of their houses then they will only look at the houses that sell high and they always think their house compares favorably. It's funny how that works!
Dry humor is tough to pull off on a computer screen, ie Zillow comments. I don't judge my home's price by Zillow, rather the trends of sold prices of comps in the area -- but I can gauge them through Zillow.
1) My area is perhaps more stable than some of the others as newcomers are typically younger, degreed citizens or legal immigrants. They represent some of the cross section I wrote of earlier -- doctors, lawyers, teachers, etc. No matter which direction LI takes, we will still need medical services, schools, public safety, town government, plumbers, cashiers, etc. One thing you mentioned above about NYers taking their pensions elsewhere -- is hurting all of NYS, it's not just a LI thing, although we do get hit heavily in the purse for certain unionized service providers [statement not intended to start cop v teacher argument]
People will still move to LI; it's a matter of quantity vs quality to replace those who move off.
2) Agreed re: taxes; however some costs that are included in our taxes aren't in other areas. If you're not a library person, don't mind driving to the dump, have no problem with unpaved roads, live in an area covered by state police as opposed to a local police department -- the savings are worth it (I am being serious here) However in some places, their taxes are rising almost as quickly as ours -- it's that they have had the benefit of getting on the elevator at a lower floor, so-to-speak. My home on LI was cheap to begin with (under $3K 15 years ago) and is still less than many people pay. Yes, I bought an old house.
The taxes on my out-of-state vacation home are flirting with $4.6K a year. As a non-resident, the state taxes me at a slightly higher rate than a resident so I pay about $400 more (Second homeowners are a cash crop in VT) For my taxes I receive: a plowed or graded dirt road (depending on season); access to the dump (for which I pay to dump, unless it's recycling, which is free); a humble library; a Barney Fife who works bankers hours and the VSP who cover the remainder of the day, a Town Hall complete with staff. Approximately 50% of the taxes go to the school district; no sewer system, water from my own well. There are no street lamps, no sidewalks.
Not knocking either way of life. It's merely a question of what someone is willing to give up in order to save on a high tax bill.
3) There are plenty of older homes on LI which have charm, character and are built to last, too, however we have a different mindset. Whereas Yankees are considered frugal, NYers have cornered the market on conspicuous consumerism and one-upmanship. There are many of us who are happy to have older homes, and who have set about preserving them, but then there are many of the disposable Bic Lighter mentality who do not see the craftsmanship in one of them and would sooner have vinyl sided neogothics or fuccolonials and will raze a 120 year-old farm house to have it their way. If
more LIers would be content to live within a certain number of square feet as opposed to keeping up with the Joneses, we might have more affordable homes as opposed to 3,000+ sq ft houses which are unaffordable to the starter market.
4) Agreed. There's some more dips in price to come.
To be honest -- I have my lines in the water for a 3rd home down south. Once the last has graduated HS, I might very well live elsewhere than on LI. Taxes have always been a killer on LI, and will ultimately kill LI for me at retirement. I can only hope that at that point, we'll be discussing how much more prices will rise
Just curious OBH - is your current 2nd home up north? Would you consider retirement there? I'm asking because my bff is entitled to a hefty 6 figure pension when she retires (not a teacher or cop so let's not go there!) and she's already looking for a place - her current home is paid off....she's thinking of VT, DE and of course I am trying to talk her into coastal Carolina. She knows she isn't staying on the Island. I don't think she's going to like VT in retirement. Any thoughts?
Dry humor is tough to pull off on a computer screen, ie Zillow comments. I don't judge my home's price by Zillow, rather the trends of sold prices of comps in the area -- but I can gauge them through Zillow.
1) My area is perhaps more stable than some of the others as newcomers are typically younger, degreed citizens or legal immigrants. They represent some of the cross section I wrote of earlier -- doctors, lawyers, teachers, etc. No matter which direction LI takes, we will still need medical services, schools, public safety, town government, plumbers, cashiers, etc. One thing you mentioned above about NYers taking their pensions elsewhere -- is hurting all of NYS, it's not just a LI thing, although we do get hit heavily in the purse for certain unionized service providers [statement not intended to start cop v teacher argument]
People will still move to LI; it's a matter of quantity vs quality to replace those who move off.
2) Agreed re: taxes; however some costs that are included in our taxes aren't in other areas. If you're not a library person, don't mind driving to the dump, have no problem with unpaved roads, live in an area covered by state police as opposed to a local police department -- the savings are worth it (I am being serious here) However in some places, their taxes are rising almost as quickly as ours -- it's that they have had the benefit of getting on the elevator at a lower floor, so-to-speak. My home on LI was cheap to begin with (under $3K 15 years ago) and is still less than many people pay. Yes, I bought an old house.
The taxes on my out-of-state vacation home are flirting with $4.6K a year. As a non-resident, the state taxes me at a slightly higher rate than a resident so I pay about $400 more (Second homeowners are a cash crop in VT) For my taxes I receive: a plowed or graded dirt road (depending on season); access to the dump (for which I pay to dump, unless it's recycling, which is free); a humble library; a Barney Fife who works bankers hours and the VSP who cover the remainder of the day, a Town Hall complete with staff. Approximately 50% of the taxes go to the school district; no sewer system, water from my own well. There are no street lamps, no sidewalks.
Not knocking either way of life. It's merely a question of what someone is willing to give up in order to save on a high tax bill.
3) There are plenty of older homes on LI which have charm, character and are built to last, too, however we have a different mindset. Whereas Yankees are considered frugal, NYers have cornered the market on conspicuous consumerism and one-upmanship. There are many of us who are happy to have older homes, and who have set about preserving them, but then there are many of the disposable Bic Lighter mentality who do not see the craftsmanship in one of them and would sooner have vinyl sided neogothics or fuccolonials and will raze a 120 year-old farm house to have it their way. If
more LIers would be content to live within a certain number of square feet as opposed to keeping up with the Joneses, we might have more affordable homes as opposed to 3,000+ sq ft houses which are unaffordable to the starter market.
4) Agreed. There's some more dips in price to come.
To be honest -- I have my lines in the water for a 3rd home down south. Once the last has graduated HS, I might very well live elsewhere than on LI. Taxes have always been a killer on LI, and will ultimately kill LI for me at retirement. I can only hope that at that point, we'll be discussing how much more prices will rise
I, personally, find that those that want to raise those beautiful turn of the century homes are usually not native Long Islanders. They are either recent transplants or guidos. No self respecting LIer whose family clammed the bay and sailed the sound would ever knock down a house that was built to last.
Hopefully they get the tax situation turned around so that people faced with your situation have, at the very least, a difficult decision in choosing whether to leave or not.
Just curious OBH - is your current 2nd home up north? Would you consider retirement there? I'm asking because my bff is entitled to a hefty 6 figure pension when she retires (not a teacher or cop so let's not go there!) and she's already looking for a place - her current home is paid off....she's thinking of VT, DE and of course I am trying to talk her into coastal Carolina. She knows she isn't staying on the Island. I don't think she's going to like VT in retirement. Any thoughts?
Yes, in VT in a quaint town, some tourism, no resort community second homes.
Tax wise, VT is not the best in terms of primary residence in retirement as the state taxes retirement income -- hence the southern home for retirement tax reasons. NH would be the better option, although property taxes are starting to climb there. (Nothing like NY)
Lifestyle perspective -- all manner of recreation year round. Small cities with surprisingly wonderful cultural opportunities or tiny towns with no traffic lights. One has to be able to tolerate gray skies in winter. Some folks would go nuts coming from LI and living in a small town on a very long dirt road like I am on. Mud season presents special challenges. Going from LI to Burlington, or to NH in the Dartmouth area might be more tolerable for some.
I, personally, find that those that want to raise those beautiful turn of the century homes are usually not native Long Islanders. They are either recent transplants or guidos. No self respecting LIer whose family clammed the bay and sailed the sound would ever knock down a house that was built to last.
Hopefully they get the tax situation turned around so that people faced with your situation have, at the very least, a difficult decision in choosing whether to leave or not.
There aren't too many true LIers whose roots go back that far, but it is great to meet people who can tell tales of LI of yore.
Decade after decade.
Always in demand despite its flaws.
I have friends jammed up in Vegas right now.
We know what we have here, Tarnation does too, and if the sky ever does fall on LI I assure you that means its lights out for the USA.
I just never get a grasp on how you view RP as the center of the universe... Similarly, it has nothing to do with NC either. "Lights out for the USA". I actually LOL'd.
It's funny how I must be the only person living on a budget because in the face of rising costs for food, energy, and taxes LI is immune and can just watch home prices increase, too.
I just never get a grasp on how you view RP as the center of the universe... Similarly, it has nothing to do with NC either. "Lights out for the USA". I actually LOL'd.
It's funny how I must be the only person living on a budget because in the face of rising costs for food, energy, and taxes LI is immune and can just watch home prices increase, too.
Yea Kid.
This threads all about RP.
And the epic fail of those who left ...and the pining (and the whining) and the nostalgia.
LI's not for everyone Kid
Nor is it a bad place to live if you for the coin.
Were happy here.
Now go away.The Piggly Wiggly closes in 6 minutes.
I really think the folks that are truly happy they left, rarely pay us a visit on C-D.
Yes, in VT in a quaint town, some tourism, no resort community second homes.
Tax wise, VT is not the best in terms of primary residence in retirement as the state taxes retirement income -- hence the southern home for retirement tax reasons. NH would be the better option, although property taxes are starting to climb there. (Nothing like NY)
Lifestyle perspective -- all manner of recreation year round. Small cities with surprisingly wonderful cultural opportunities or tiny towns with no traffic lights. One has to be able to tolerate gray skies in winter. Some folks would go nuts coming from LI and living in a small town on a very long dirt road like I am on. Mud season presents special challenges. Going from LI to Burlington, or to NH in the Dartmouth area might be more tolerable for some.
Good to know on the retirement income.
THanks for the input!
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And I've noticed that when people are trying to gauge the value of their houses then they will only look at the houses that sell high and they always think their house compares favorably. It's funny how that works!
