America's most overvalued housing market (New York, Brookhaven: renting, condos, mattress)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Apparently you havent been here for 25 years because Ive seen this one play out in the 80s, 90s and again today.
Second verse same as the first.Sky is falling run for cover.
Theres always bottom feeders looking to spin.
I would never bet against LI.Unless of course they move NYC and the Hamptons.
Stick with the Vegas and SoBe boards Nostradamus.
; )
Crooks
Although I agree and seen article back than making the same claims, it's hard to see prices come back and go above the bubble levels. Homes are only worth what someone can pay. With the current tax levels and homes being in middle 300's in a decent neighborhood, that's a $2700 mortgage payment every month.
Wages are not increasing and if you look at the mediam income for families on long island, I do not see much room in their budget for a higher mortgage payment. In the article below the author indicates that US payrolls in the 2000-2010 decade was about 5%, yet every decade prior was 20% growth. Do you think US payrolls will return to 20% growth over the next decade?
First time home owners are the crucial piece of the puzzle. They have to be in the market in order for the 2nd and 3rd time homeowners to be jumping up. Most retirees do not plan to stay here so they are not going to downgrade on the island, maybe somewhere else.... Regardless of how much overvalued this market may seem, if the banks had not stopped lending 2-3 years ago, we would still be seeing the houses increase in value.
Do you think the banks' higher mortgage qualifications are really impacting the market that much? I am hearing FHA, FHA, FHA all the time to the point that I think it has taken over where the traditional banks won't dare to venture anymore and people who do not have excellent credit and 20% + to put down are still getting mortgages anyway.
I know a few first-time homebuyers with nicks on their credit who have put down very low money (3%) buying through FHA. Also know 1 couple with very good credit who bought through SONYMA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zulu400
The thing going for NYC is its image. If housing totally crashes, investors around the world will jump on properties in the big apple. This is not true of other places in the country. This also means that the housing will not "crash" as much compared to the rest of the USA. I am not really certain that Suffolk will benefit from this, maybe a little.
I read an article recently on the housing markets that were overbuilt during the boom and "are not coming back" which included parts of Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and others due to too many people being stuck with underwater mortgages, unemployment, etc. New ghost towns are predicted in some of these places as there are simply no buyers for too many homes. We are in a lot better shape than they are. Let's count our blessings where we find them!
Apparently you havent been here for 25 years because Ive seen this one play out in the 80s, 90s and again today.
Second verse same as the first.Sky is falling run for cover.
Theres always bottom feeders looking to spin.
I would never bet against LI.Unless of course they move NYC and the Hamptons.
Stick with the Vegas and SoBe boards Nostradamus.
; )
Crooks
What's the big difference between how "this one play out" compared to the 80s and 90s? Pictures for ease of understanding. Look at your 80s and 90s then explain that one away except that we borrowed and robbed from the future to "spend" our way out of it back then. At a national level, the craziest thing is your gubmint is about to raise the debt ceiling even higher! I guess there's no worries about paying your bills when you just print money in the basement.
Also remember that the picture is even worse comparatively at the state, county, and local levels.
Any debt clock will show you how bad it is COMPARED TO ANYTIME - you haven't seen this before and shrugging it off is silliness.
What's the big difference between how "this one play out" compared to the 80s and 90s? Pictures for ease of understanding. Look at your 80s and 90s then explain that one away except that we borrowed and robbed from the future to "spend" our way out of it back then. At a national level, the craziest thing is your gubmint is about to raise the debt ceiling even higher! I guess there's no worries about paying your bills when you just print money in the basement.
Also remember that the picture is even worse comparatively at the state, county, and local levels.
Any debt clock will show you how bad it is COMPARED TO ANYTIME - you haven't seen this before and shrugging it off is silliness.
[url="http://www.usdebtclock.org/"]U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time[/URL
Is Tarleap a word yet?
Whatever visual representations you need Guy.
Unless they move NYC or the Hamptons,,,I think we'll be just fine.
Hows that furniture/whittling business coming along with China in this economy?
Any graphs?
Crooks
I really dont understand all the people who want the gloom and doom?
Lets face it...houses are selling. Period. And will continue to sell. Prices have bottomed out and will stay steady for a while along with interest rates.
If anything things are improving on sales, price and inventory is coming down.
I really dont understand all the people who want the gloom and doom?
Lets face it...houses are selling. Period. And will continue to sell. Prices have bottomed out and will stay steady for a while along with interest rates.
If anything things are improving on sales, price and inventory is coming down.
Just trying to point out that you haven't seen this all before... It's not some phantom figment of people's imagination. What's worked in the past can't work this time. You can't pretend that CREDIT is income/revenue/money on hand. People are not going to be buying overvalued RE on LI "cash". Lucky for you they set FHA at a ridiculous $729k in Suffolk so folks can get in for 3.5% down. Otherwise there would barely be any housing market.
Here's a Washington Post article about the debt ceiling - or is that a silly source, too?
The question about overvalued....I see homes where I grow up in Oceanside... in the mid 250 to 299k range now. Some are in decent shape , some went for mid 400 only a couple of years ago. I can't imagine them going down even further but you never know. Again my old residence is now assessed almost 200k less than a few years ago but I already mention that. Yes they are selling but at what price??
I will agree that the economic challenges we face are different (and worse) than before. However, the people who say LI is weathering it better than a lot of other areas have a point too. All we can do is wait and see at this point.
I do wonder what would happen to the LI housing market if the bottom fell out of FHA (who seems to have replaced the subprime lenders). Does anybody know how much of the mortgages written on LI now and in the past couple of years are low downpayment FHA loans?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The best post in this thread so far!
