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Most reasonable people would agree that one of these days ("not if, but when"), LI is going to get hit with a major hurricane, meaning at least Category 2 (Gloria was barely a category 1 when it hit, I know because I was living in the town where she made landfall).
Also that when it happens, the economic impact will make Katrina look like the common cold compared to the avian flu.
Most if not all of the pricey real estate along the South Shore will be literally gone. Destroyed. Think "New Orleans". The Forks won't fare much better (farmland doesn't recover quickly from being submerged in salt water). Much of the damage to the North Shore will be from downed trees, power lines, and other severe high wind damage to homes and other structures.
The infrastructure won't be up and working in days or two weeks, like after Gloria. It will be weeks into months before things like gas pumps and grocery stores get power back.
Ironically, the part of LI that some people deride the most for being boring, etc ("suburban hells"), in other words the central part bordering the Expressway, south of Jericho Tpke/north of Sunrise Hwy, will probably experience the least amount of physical damage because they are the furthest from the shores and forks, which will take the worst pounding.
In this scenario, when the most valuable real estate (along the shorelines) on LI will suffer catastrophic damage, what do you think will happen to the economy of the central areas and to the economy of LI as a whole, in the aftermath?
My theory is that there will be a huge influx of people who'll be necessary for the massive rebuilding that will be needed. They'll have to live somewhere and since the middle of the Island will be the least damaged, property values there will skyrocket because let's face it, where else will they be able to go? Manhattan? Riiiight. (that's assuming the storm spared NYC but if it didn't, that's a whole nother story) Connecticut or NJ, and commute? Don't think so.
clamboy has theorized "Migrants and Millionaires" for LI's future but hasn't taken an event like this into account. So how do you think LI will change when it happens? And in what ways (first in the short term meaning up to 5 or even 10 years, and then long term meaning 20+ years on)?
Last edited by 4StanleyCups; 07-29-2007 at 07:38 PM..
One nightmare scenario I remember was if Shoreham had a meltdown how would the Island be evacuated. Everything bottlenecked at the bridges and tunnels.
Pretty grim stuff there, Lex Luther. Wasn’t that the theory in the first “Superman” movie? Corner the real estate market in the California desert and own the new west coast, “My west coast!” Save me a place in Otisburg.
it will be crippling to the whole island. My area will have major tree/wind damage & minor flooding. after everything is rebuilt, my house will be alot closer to the north shore. My mother & grandmother will probably have to live with me because they live in modular homes & its doubtful they'd stand up to a cat 2. My Dad's luxury townhouse on Northport harbor will be flooded, he can go stay in his city apartment if he can get there.
I believe the whole south shore, south of montauk hwy(including my old town Oakdale) will be gone or deemed unsafe to return to. The barrier islands will be broken to bits-all roads destroyed.
My husband is a carpenter & drove down to Florida to work on the rebuild after Katrina & Wilma, the damage was unreal & the didn't even get any media play because New Orleans was so trashed. Business here will be really good for him after a major storm.
My job will probably be gone short term, my office will likely be destroyed as will one of my boss' homes, plus the 46 mile each way commute will be impossible when we can't get gas on LI.
We have enough food, ice, water, paper goods, cash, propane, batteries & other supplies to last us 2 weeks. We have a big, dry basement to house our family & all my animals.
I would like to believe it isn't, but I know it is coming....I just don't know when.
It's a given that a major hurricane would result in much of LI being turned into a disaster area (a real one, not just some on-paper assessment to qualify for Federal aid funds) but what I was really trying to get at with my question was, In what way do you think the present way of life on LI would change in the aftermath? Meaning not weeks or months but a year, two years, five years etc afterward.
Would the economic distribution change? Would there be more or less upper-income areas than there are now?
Would the upper income areas still be along the shores, like now, or would that change?
How about the demographics? Do you think that would change, and if so how?
As the damaged or lost infrastructure (rail lines, roads, buildings, homes, schools) gets replaced, will it be done differently (better) or just the Same Old Same Old way?
Will LI become an insurance nightmare, just like coastal Florida?
Do you think Post-Major-Hurricane Long Island will end up being populated MOSTLY by
(a) Blue collar, low-income, and/or immigrants?
(b) High income or high net worth, with certain areas where blue collar and/or service industry workers live?
(c) Middle class, middle income (only a few areas of either very high or very low income)?
(d) The same mix of immigrant/low income/middle class/high wealth areas that we have right now?
In other words what kind of permanent social and economic change (if any) do you think the Big Hurricane will cause on LI?
Last edited by 4StanleyCups; 07-29-2007 at 10:12 PM..
it is impossible to predict, the ultra wealthy that use eastern LI as 2nd, 3rd,
4th homes will just be gone....they'll find someplace else to rebuild. I don't think the gold coast will have major flooding so those people will remain.
The south shore is screwed and I would imagine there will be wars between citizens & government on eminent domain issues. If Montauk hwy is gone, will they "take" land to build a new road?
People that are in the less affected middle will be renting out their extra rooms & basements to transient workers to make an extra buck, not so different from now.
And if the LIRR system gets destroyed we can all forget about using the LIE to get to work. I'd imagine we'd be under some sort of rush hour carpool law at that point.
Maybe the people that loose their homes on the south shore will take the insurance check & relocate. If we have less square footage, it doesn't make sense that everyone would stay.
The economy will take a hit....and since we don't know how resilient individuals or "classes" for that matter are, its impossible to guess who'll stay & who'll go.
Who cares anyway? I'm more concerned with making sure my family is prepared to survive here either way.
The obsession/curiosity with "class" is really weird to me. I know where I stand, I don't give a rat's ass about the masses.
it is impossible to predict, the ultra wealthy that use eastern LI as 2nd, 3rd,
4th homes will just be gone....they'll find someplace else to rebuild. I don't think the gold coast will have major flooding so those people will remain.
The south shore is screwed and I would imagine there will be wars between citizens & government on eminent domain issues. If Montauk hwy is gone, will they "take" land to build a new road?
People that are in the less affected middle will be renting out their extra rooms & basements to transient workers to make an extra buck, not so different from now.
And if the LIRR system gets destroyed we can all forget about using the LIE to get to work. I'd imagine we'd be under some sort of rush hour carpool law at that point.
Maybe the people that loose their homes on the south shore will take the insurance check & relocate. If we have less square footage, it doesn't make sense that everyone would stay.
The economy will take a hit....and since we don't know how resilient individuals or "classes" for that matter are, its impossible to guess who'll stay & who'll go.
Who cares anyway? I'm more concerned with making sure my family is prepared to survive here either way.
The obsession/curiosity with "class" is really weird to me. I know where I stand, I don't give a rat's ass about the masses.
We should be looking at N. Shore Sea Jet Service to NYC any way.
Best
I know where I stand, I don't give a rat's ass about the masses.
Unless of course they show up on your doorstep after a disaster.
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