Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
IMO prices will fall 100K. I could go on and on about how and why, but really it's the same reasoning you read everywhere.
I understand what you are saying. However, I have been following the market on LI for over 4 years (as a buyer). I too looked in PW so I know the market a bit there.
What you are seeing inventory wise now has dropped considerably already. I don't think you will find that much more of a drop (meaning a 100,000 drop) on top of what you already see. I don't see the day where you can buy something decent in a nice area in PW for $500. Now I could be wrong, but I really don't see that coming at all. Like I said maybe $550 or $575, but $500 for something other than a total gutjob or least desirable area in PW, I don't see it. We ARE talking about a nice North Shore town with a great train line. So no, I definitely do not see a decent house ever going for $500 in PW in these times. But only time will tell I guess. Either way, I suggest you either have to up your budget or come up with town B to choose from (in case the drop you imagine will happen, does not, which I really don't think it will).
Last edited by Glad2BHere; 02-24-2012 at 07:28 AM..
No down payment saved up, so this means you have 22 months til the end of 2013 to save up 20% (100k+), that's at least 5k a month if you factor in closing costs. $6k a month when you start looking at homes in the 600k range. The reason I say 20% because PMI is for suckers. Can you swing it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by paulyc44
... surely prices will continue to fall into 2013
Do you work in Real Estate Finance or related field to fill us in on how you are so sure? Just yesterday, I read that interest rates are going up! So even if home prices fall, what does the effect of higher interest have on the cost of home ownership? Something to consider.
You need to run some numbers, see where you are, see where you want to be, and make a plan. Take into account your "projected housing market" and your "projected interest rate" both in the worst case scenario for safety, and that will determine the highest rung you can reach on the property ladder.
I understand what you are saying. However, I have been following the market on LI for over 4 years (as a buyer). I too looked in PW so I know the market a bit there.
What you are seeing inventory wise now has dropped considerably already. I don't think you will find that much more of a drop (meaning a 100,000 drop) on top of what you already see. I don't see the day where you can buy something decent in a nice area in PW for $500. Now I could be wrong, but I really don't see that coming at all. Like I said maybe $550 or $575, but $500 for something other than a total gutjob or least desirable area in PW, I don't see it. We ARE talking about a nice North Shore town with a great train line. So no, I definitely do not see a decent house ever going for $500 in PW in these times. But only time will tell I guess. Either way, I suggest you either have to up your budget or come up with town B to choose from (in case the drop you imagine will happen, does not, which I really don't think it will).
You make some very good points. Let's not forget astronomically high property taxes.
I was a similar situation to you. Lived in UWS for a year, then Astoria for 2.5. Looked to buy a house a year and a half ago across Queens; gradually kept looking eastward on the Port Washington LIRR line (my wife and I both work in Manhattan). Great Neck and Manhasset were too expensive; settled on PW. We bought our house early 2011.
I can't offer much advice though. My only advice to you would have been to tighten your belts more. I do not understand how you can be 34 and have no savings for a down payment. You make a good combined income. You should have lowered your expenses earlier on, because you need a greater budget than $500k. I mean, you carry credit card debt. C'mon now. High 500's or low 600's will get you something decent; high 600's and you will a nice place. But not in Baxter Estates or any of the incorporated areas. You don't want to pay those higher taxes anyway.
I know I am sounding preachy but the tone in your OP frustrated me; you came off as a little entitled (I can spend $500k on a house yet no savings and actually a little CC debt. Now show me my dream house in Port Washington!). I love PW for the same exact reasons you mentioned. And I grew up on LI and wanted to raise a child there. We are similar. But I am four years younger than you and my wife and I lived within our means and saved.
I would suggest you look in the Park section of PW. Your budget now will land you in crappy Manorhaven. But you need to increase your budget broseph. Somehow. Something has to give, and it might be your expectations.
I understand what you are saying. However, I have been following the market on LI for over 4 years (as a buyer). I too looked in PW so I know the market a bit there.
What you are seeing inventory wise now has dropped considerably already. I don't think you will find that much more of a drop (meaning a 100,000 drop) on top of what you already see. I don't see the day where you can buy something decent in a nice area in PW for $500. Now I could be wrong, but I really don't see that coming at all. Like I said maybe $550 or $575, but $500 for something other than a total gutjob or least desirable area in PW, I don't see it. We ARE talking about a nice North Shore town with a great train line. So no, I definitely do not see a decent house ever going for $500 in PW in these times. But only time will tell I guess. Either way, I suggest you either have to up your budget or come up with town B to choose from (in case the drop you imagine will happen, does not, which I really don't think it will).
I would suggest you look in the Park section of PW. Your budget now will land you in crappy Manorhaven. But you need to increase your budget broseph. Somehow. Something has to give, and it might be your expectations.
P.S. Nothing wrong with steam heat.
I agree with OP looking in the Park section. But I do agree, as I said before. $500,000 will only land you a home in Manorhaven, which is not where I would suggest buying. Home prices in PW, nice areas, are highly unlikely to drop to $500k.
without sounding like an a-hole, i find pw kind of overrated unless you can buy in baxter estates. by the water is pretty but the majority of it looks dumpy. i know it is sort of sold as a more culturally aware area but has nothing on sea cliff or huntington IMO.
Yeah. The commute to NYC is a lot easier though.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
