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Old 07-22-2013, 06:43 AM
 
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Long Island is first and foremost a suburb of NYC. Sorry to burst the bubbles of those of you who think we're a major US city or something. Our fate is tied to the city, and thus far things are looking good.
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Old 07-22-2013, 06:49 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Interlude View Post
Long Island is first and foremost a suburb of NYC. Sorry to burst the bubbles of those of you who think we're a major US city or something. Our fate is tied to the city, and thus far things are looking good.
Long Islands boon was when the city of New York was doing poorly in the 70s and 80s.
Underfunded pension issues, a crushed one-factor economy, and a shrinking tax base was what nailed Detroit.

Nassau has almost gone bankrupt in the past.

That said, taxes are so bass-ackwards in New York State, that population really has no effect on the municipalities themselves. If your neighbor moves out and no one moves in, your taxes just get raised to compensate- so a similar crash to Detroit may not be that possible.
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Old 07-22-2013, 07:44 AM
 
Location: Little Babylon
5,072 posts, read 9,106,260 times
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Originally Posted by Interlude View Post
Long Island is first and foremost a suburb of NYC. Sorry to burst the bubbles of those of you who think we're a major US city or something. Our fate is tied to the city, and thus far things are looking good.
Hasn't always been so. Long Island in the past was an engineering, and to a lesser extent agricultural, center that produced incredible products and supplied excellent jobs at many levels in a wonderful location. And the Western end wasn't a bad suburb of NYC.

While I don't think LI will ever be Detroit, remember that what can be called the Detroit suburbs aren't linked to that city, the way you say Long Island is to NYC. So if NYC declines so will Long Island. Also, care to guess how much NYC cares about LI?
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Old 07-22-2013, 07:44 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ny789987 View Post
Totally agree. Everyone that I know that is young & educated is hitting the road. Public employees are too highly compensated and it is starting to have a major effect on property values. The middle class is being hallowed out and there is a major influx of lower income and recent immigrants.
<--- young, educated and not hitting the road so your point is disproven.
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Old 07-22-2013, 07:45 AM
 
Location: Little Babylon
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Numbers from both of you please.
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Old 07-22-2013, 07:46 AM
 
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Originally Posted by bigjretrac View Post
What industry?

Detroit doesn't have a nearby world class city to fall back on.
I think he is referring to cars.
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Old 07-22-2013, 08:28 AM
 
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Op Ed from The Rauch Foundation Director today. Been trumpeting this for years but not going to happen. This is everything the Nimbys fear. People from the city commuting to LI?!? Ghastly horror! LI it's own economic engine and not NYC's expanding armpit?! Not likely. Another Queens?! Never!! We won't be another Detroit but we WILL become another Queens unless we become another Long Island which requires HIGH TECH jobs and or HIGH TECH manufacturing which requires HIGH TECH politicians which requires HIGH TECH voters. In other words....see you in Carolina!

Rauch Douzinas: Long Island must shed small-town mind-set

Originally published: July 19, 2013 6:25 PM
Updated: July 21, 2013 9:42 PM
By NANCY RAUCH DOUZINAS

Long Island has a vast opportunity to thrive in the 21st-century global economy as part of the greatest metropolitan area in the world. Our location couldn't be better, but success will require that we think regionally, not locally. And that hasn't been easy for Long Island in the past.

A study released in June by The Economist Intelligence Unit ranked 120 cities by ability to attract capital, business, talent and visitors. New York ranked first -- followed by London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo -- and is predicted to remain "the world's most competitive city" for at least a dozen years.

Long Island's proximity to New York creates a wonderful opportunity -- and an urgency to connect Long Island more closely to the city. That's where the regional thinking comes in.

Long Island's multitude of government entities reflects its history of thinking locally. According to the Long Island Index, which is published by the Rauch Foundation, Long Island has 665 government entities, including 168 special districts, providing basic services such as fire, police, sanitation, water, schools and libraries. Not only is that fragmentation enormously inefficient, it leaves Long Island splintered into enclaves separated by age, race, income and ethnicity -- at a time when we need to advance as a region. This is a byproduct of a preference for small communities that must now have a regional overlay to be competitive.

We must focus on how Nassau and Suffolk as one entity relate to "the world's most competitive city" and how that relationship can help Long Island grow economically. The key is our connectedness: to each other, to Greater New York and to regionally focused leaders.

Increasing the ease of connecting Long Island to the rest of the metropolitan area with the Long Island Rail Road is, fortunately, underway. East Side Access to Grand Central Terminal is due for completion in 2019. A "second track" from Farmingdale to Ronkonkoma could be completed by 2018, significantly enhancing one of the railroad's most overcrowded lines. And construction of the long-debated "third track" -- better named the "Fast Track" -- on the LIRR Main Line would improve service and reverse commuting.

Reverse commuting should be one of the top priorities of thinking regionally, because we need to make it easier for local companies and institutions to attract talent they need to grow. In the past -- thinking locally -- the reasoning has been that Long Islanders should get the Long Island jobs, but the reality is that those jobs go elsewhere if the talent pool is restricted. Just look at the extraordinary growth of Stamford, Conn., and White Plains, N.Y. Jobs in the region are locating there, where reverse commuting from New York City is easiest.

We need also to support and encourage institutions that look beyond parochial needs at the broader challenges and opportunities facing Long Island. A good example is the Energeia Partnership at Molloy College, which convenes and develops a diverse group of leaders from local public, private and not-for-profit sectors.

Using regional data from the Long Island Index, Energeia educates those leaders on issues such as the fragmented and costly system of government on Long Island, the potential for creating more high-paying jobs and misaligned incentives in educational funding. In doing so, Energeia connects those leaders personally and builds a new generation of leaders thinking regionally.

Long Island's future will be brightest if we make the connections that will enable our region to collaborate and create in ways that will generate that brightness and make it permanent. If we think regionally, we will excel locally.
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Old 07-22-2013, 08:31 AM
 
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could Nassau or Suffolk eventually declare bankruptcy? Oh I think that's very possible.
Would we see the blocks and blocks of burnt out buildings/homes and the erosion of basic social services that Detroit experienced? My guess is no. At least not on a wide scale.
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Old 07-22-2013, 08:39 AM
 
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Originally Posted by S.I.B. View Post
could Nassau or Suffolk eventually declare bankruptcy? Oh I think that's very possible.
Would we see the blocks and blocks of burnt out buildings/homes and the erosion of basic social services that Detroit experienced? My guess is no. At least not on a wide scale.
That's not going to happen unless there is a complete meltdown in NYC which isn't likely. LI still represents a kind of American suburban dream (the best thing about it) but the demographics are changing from the old timer Italian, Jewish, Irish to Asians and Eastern Europeans who have similar paths to America and similar family values and work ethics. No problem there. The PROBLEM is that LI can't sustain that standard of living like it did before. LI is increasingly becoming a housing and service arm of NYC workers. Add a $52 billion cut in defense in 2014 and that's pretty much the final cut in LI's middle class tether unless we make changes and attract businesses.

No one wants to accept that our ridiculous public sector costs and layers of hack govt killed us after 9/11. Many businesses wanted out of Manhattan. While NJ and Westchester opened the doors and put out the political welcome mat, Long Island said as always "not in my backyard." We had a phony mortgage industry then lining Rte 110. and bubbled housing. Why be concerned with middle class jobs. "Let 'em go!" "Who needs" 'em!?"
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Old 07-22-2013, 08:43 AM
 
Location: Little Babylon
5,072 posts, read 9,106,260 times
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/\ What he said.
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